Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Quote

In any event, Irma appears to be
moving very slowly toward the northwest, or 305/5 kt, very gradually
shifting away from the north coast of Cuba.  With the hurricane
located near a break in the subtropical ridge, it should turn
north-northwestward soon and accelerate near or along the west
coast of Florida during the next 36-48 hours.  Because of Irma's
hesitation to move northwestward, the new track guidance has shifted
ever so slightly westward, and the new NHC track is just a little
left of the previous one.  Although it is likely that the eye will
move near or over the Lower Keys Sunday morning, the hurricane's
angle of approach to the west coast of Florida makes it very
difficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf
coast.

 

Their wording shows they are not confident on it's future movement speed and direction. 

Another thing to keep an eye on is Jose.   Each model run seems to show him moving closer and closer to interacting with IRMA.   Jose's westward speed is increasing and Irma's NW speed is slowing.   And many times hurricanes slow down more and stall just before moving onshore...especially when weak steering currents, like currently.   (and like how it never moved completely onshore Cuba)

Jose feeding IRMA with more moisture than expected, could mean flooding disaster for Florida / Georgia.

i'm restricted to 5 posts a day...so can't post again till tomorrow night)

[F-5]

And in the toilet we go (again).  

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, F-5 said:

That is most likely an illusion caused by the precip falling on top of KBYX

Satellite would disagree with the SW eyewall weakening.

[swamplover56]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My honest opinion is that this system is going to leave a lasting impact, but not the transcendent one that most of us had feared.

Its going be like an Opal......bad enough, but not talked about all that frequently 15 years from now.

Carribean and Bahamas...different story.

That was epic.

I know that I'll get flamed for this, but not my intention to piss anyone off.

That is how I see it.

Disagree and I follow you a lot during the winter and I respect your skill and passion. While I understand that there is a escalating destructive effect as winds increase is there really that much difference if she goes near or over key west at 135-140-145? I still think this storms story will be surge and flooding if she takes that path hugging the coast from Naples ft meters Tampa st Pete. At the end of the day does anyone but us weather nerds remember Katrina weakened just before landfall! No we remember the horror it left behind. I think that the over focus in the wind speed is just us being us

[KPITSnow]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Satellite would disagree with the SW eyewall weakening.

I saw a couple people upthread mentioning dry air being ingested...is that true? I'm not really seeing it, but I'm also far from an expert.

[Roger Smith]

Eyewall features look to be spinning more energetically past two frames, I think this does a Charley and accelerates overnight while steadily deepening. Hope I'm wrong because that scenario will mean heavy wind damage at landfall point and some increase in surges although those seem locked in now. I estimated winds in excess of 150 mph from one feature in the eyewall (it rotates east to north in 12 minutes). 

Time will tell, but I think steady intensification begins just before the eye reaches Key West. That looks to be around 08z now. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My honest opinion is that this system is going to leave a lasting impact, but not the transcendent one that most of us had feared.

Its going be like an Opal......bad enough, but not talked about all that frequently 15 years from now.

Carribean and Bahamas...different story.

That was epic.

I know that I'll get flamed for this, but not my intention to piss anyone off.

That is how I see it.

Stick to downplaying SNE 2-3 footer blizzards and leave the hurricane calls to the experts.  

Hopefully you're right but there's a lot of time for a tightening of the eyewall and a ramp up to a strong Cat 4. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, swamplover56 said:

Disagree and I follow you a lot during the winter and I respect your skill and passion. While I understand that there is a escalating destructive effect as winds increase is there really that much difference if she goes near or over key west at 135-140-145? I still think this storms story will be surge and flooding if she takes that path hugging the coast from Naples ft meters Tampa st Pete. At the end of the day does anyone but us weather nerds remember Katrina weakened just before landfall! No we remember the horror it left behind. I think that the over focus in the wind speed is just us being us

Fair post.

I'm not convinced it ever makes LF on the peninsula......and odds are that it won't be in that worst-case spot for Tampa.

[DCAlexandria]

The people who want to wish away this storm are hallucinating, the eyeball is now completely closed http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-24-1-100

[wasnow215]

0Z GFS initialized at 936 milbs. A tad higher than the 933 actual but pretty close. Then the next 4 frames (every three hours starting at hour 6) in order are 930, 920, 915, and 909.  So let's see how close it comes in actuality.

[TPAwx]

7 minutes ago, mempho said:

Which is why I'm horrified by the "light" evacuation decisions made in Hillsborough and Pinneles counties. Something needs to be done about this right now, IMO.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

There's actually a local impacts/evacuation thread for stuff like this.  The evacs currently declared by both counties are appropriate for the forecasted level of surge.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

I saw a couple people upthread mentioning dry air being ingested...is that true? I'm not really seeing it, but I'm also far from an expert.

I don't see anything standing out on water vapor.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Recon headed towards the NE eyewall, so we should get some idea of what the hell is going on soon

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Stick to downplaying SNE 2-3 footer blizzards and leave the hurricane calls to the experts.  

Hopefully you're right but there's a lot of time for a tightening of the eyewall and a ramp up to a strong Cat 4. 

I could easily be wrong.......already have been regarding this system...I was all about the Carolinas.

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My honest opinion is that this system is going to leave a lasting impact, but not the transcendent one that most of us had feared.

Its going be like an Opal......bad enough, but not talked about all that frequently 15 years from now.

Carribean and Bahamas...different story.

That was epic.

I know that I'll get flamed for this, but not my intention to piss anyone off.

That is how I see it.

 

Dangerous storm, and I hope everyone in its path is prepared.

Think you are underselling it (worse/more impactful/more memorable than Opal). What happens in Tampa will have a big part in dictating the legacy, for better or worse..  

[F-5]

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Satellite would disagree with the SW eyewall weakening.

I'm using the NHC satellite page but their most recent image is 3:15 so maybe you're correct, but as of their latest image the SW flank was the most robust part of the eye.  

Also, a loop of the Key West radar shows the 'weakening' coinciding with the arrival of an intense rain band.

Could be wrong....

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My honest opinion is that this system is going to leave a lasting impact, but not the transcendent one that most of us had feared.

Its going be like an Opal......bad enough, but not talked about all that frequently 15 years from now.

Carribean and Bahamas...different story.

That was epic.

I know that I'll get flamed for this, but not my intention to piss anyone off.

That is how I see it.

 

Dangerous storm, and I hope everyone in its path is prepared.

Irma held 185 MPH winds in the Atlantic for nearly 40 hours. Has that been done anywhere else on the planet? This one will be remembered for a long time. Maybe not as much for the impacts on the USA, but surely for the records it broke in the Atlantic basin. 

[andyhb]

Best tools for looking at dry air: water vapor satellite

Best tools for looking at wind speeds: recon and radar

Best tools for looking at internal structure: recon, radar and microwave satellite

Best tools for looking at the health of the CDO/convection: IR satellite

Feel like this needs to be re-iterated.

[friedmators]

Low and Mid-Level WV Imagery shows a strengthening system at least in regards to that aspect.

[mempho]

Zone A covers a surge to 11 feet.  It's appropriate for the current 5-8 foot expected surge.  And obviously may not be if Irma strengthens or takes a different track beyond NHC's current expectations.

11 feet is WAY underdone in the worst 30% of solutions.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Stebo]

 

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Think you are underselling it (worse/more impactful/more memorable than Opal). What happens in Tampa will have a big part in dictating the legacy, for better or worse..  

Yeah even if it passes off shore the surge with this storm will be major news. A lot of counting chickens before they hatch in here over the last hour. You get 10 to 15 foot surge from Key West to Clearwater you are looking at a historic storm.

[TPAwx]

5 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

Disagree and I follow you a lot during the winter and I respect your skill and passion. While I understand that there is a escalating destructive effect as winds increase is there really that much difference if she goes near or over key west at 135-140-145? I still think this storms story will be surge and flooding if she takes that path hugging the coast from Naples ft meters Tampa st Pete. At the end of the day does anyone but us weather nerds remember Katrina weakened just before landfall! No we remember the horror it left behind. I think that the over focus in the wind speed is just us being us

The Katrina reference is appropriate but that storm brought up to 28 feet of surge.  Irma forecast is 5-8 in Tampa and more to the south.  But this won't be Katrina level surge.

[jburns]

Just now, andyhb said:

Best tools for looking at dry air: water vapor satellite

Best tools for looking as wind speeds: recon and radar

Best tools for looking at internal structure: recon, radar and microwave satellite

Best tools for looking at the health of the CDO/convection: IR satellite

Feel like this needs to be re-iterated.

Best tool for cleaning up the thread: the ban button.

Stop bickering.

Not talking about you Andy I just used your "best tool" line to help make my point.

[mreaves]

36 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

 

Looks like they still go to Indian Pass, TS warning to Walton/Okaloosa county line. Did I miss something?


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27 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

I thought they ended at Leon County before and now go another county westward.  I may be incorrect, though.

My brother in Thomas County Georgia, 50 miles from the coast is under a hurricane warning. 

[SnowGoose69]

There goes the Marathon ASOS.  Key West up next

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Irma held 185 MPH winds in the Atlantic for nearly 40 hours. Has that been done anywhere else on the planet? This one will be remembered for a long time. Maybe not as much for the impacts on the USA, but surely for the records it broke in the Atlantic basin. 

I was speaking within the context of US impact, which could also be wrong.

Yes.....epic storm throughout most of its life.

[hlcater]

People seem to be forgetting that Irma also raked a good chunk of the Cuban coast at Cat 5 intensity. Is that not memorable?

[Juliancolton]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Think you are underselling it (worse/more impactful/more memorable than Opal). What happens in Tampa will have a big part in dictating the legacy, for better or worse..  

You don't need an all-out apocalypse in one locality to make a storm memorable, either. Wide-ranging moderate to heavy damage will leave a long-lasting impression. Elena '85 comes to mind as an example. 

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

0Z GFS initialized at 936 milbs. A tad higher than the 933 actual but pretty close. Then the next 4 frames (every three hours starting at hour 6) in order are 930, 920, 915, and 909.  So let's see how close it comes in actuality.

08.12z GFS had it at 905 mb by now just off the Cuba coast, so I wouldn't focus too much on the raw numbers. 

All I'm willing to say about the GFS is that it thinks there is still room for strengthening prior to landfall. It's not like it's tapping warm SSTs and strengthening the storm, it has consistently showed (most likely excessive) strengthening upon making the N/NW turn.

[Morris]

If you have RadarScope Pro, set the Key West radar to run a loop of 20 frames. The IEW is disappearing.