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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

They may be banking on the shear to weaken it but when its in or entering a RI stage it can be harder for that to occur

The NHC discussion sketched out a pretty clear and detailed rationale on their intensity forecast.  If you and stebo and other mets think it will overcome the contra effects then perhaps it's possible, but a lot of posters seem to just "think" it will happen, and some without any reasoning to support it.  NHC for the most part has been doing an excellent job WRT Irma.

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I have no clue, I guess if I had a gun to my head I'd say it gets back to 145-150mph at some point. It looks to be ramping back up and the pressure drops will have to matter if the new eyewall takes over. But there's 88-90F water for a while coming up and it could really go to town. We'll see. 

Yes brother, given all the other variables, I really could see her going for the grand slam.
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3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

NHC is essentially saying Cuba won the fight in the end. They don't expect the storm to come back with the force it once had. We shall see what happens overnight.

Happens quite often.

Its easy to just assume RI when conditions are ostensibly pristine, but once that structure is disturbed......its very tough.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

The 11 pm NHC forecast is what it is.  The factors favorable for strengthening have been laid out well in this thread, as well as a reason or two why it may not strengthen so quickly.  No point in having a bunch of one liners directed at the NHC.  Now we wait.

Regardless, NHC will be updating hourly. If it strengthens, they can adjust accordingly. 

There are legitimate concerns for slower strengthening, just like there are for possibly rapid strengthening. NHC is hedging in the direction all their guidance and experience is pointing them.

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2 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

The NHC discussion sketched out a pretty clear and detailed rationale on their intensity forecast.  If you and stebo and other mets think it will overcome the contra effects then perhaps it's possible, but a lot of posters seem to just "think" it will happen, and some without any reasoning to support it.  NHC for the most part has been doing an excellent job WRT Irma.

You think so? The whole "Irma isn't going to be weakened by Cuba" forecast last night sure hurts their credibility with their forecast now.  

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3 minutes ago, williamGD said:

 You mean the wish casters on here might just be wrong?

It's one of those that could go either way. Personally, I'd be a little nervous capping it at cat 3 given recent organizational trends and the overall environment (especially for the next 18 hours or so) but it's not a take it to the bank restrengthening into cat 4... until it does.  

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2 minutes ago, cwc said:

The butthurt in this thread because NHC says Cat 3 is ridiculous.  NHC has been crushing this storm; forgive me for relying on experts....

Wait a minute...and I'm sorry I go off on a tangent, and I am not criticizing the NHC...but as of last night, they forecasted the storm to not be really weakened by Cuba, and stay 150-155 mph storm.

 

We also have several METS on here saying they believe this could be about to RI, so I would generally say cool it here.

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5 minutes ago, CaWx said:

IEW weakening and the OEW takening over. 85F+ water temps, not much shear before the keys, a warming eye, and clearing out and strengthening with possible RI. So many things are going for Irma not to reach 140mph again, and honestly I don't get what the NHC is basing their logic on. 

The OEW has been taking over, the IEW on its last gasp, and the eye clearing out for like 24 hours now.....at some point, its time to entertain the notion of going back to the drawing board.

I, along with a few others got flamed for questioning the whole RI concept......but the great paradox with these is that those big, bad azz ferocious cores are very fragile and once a Cuban queefs in the right spot.....the system just stagnates for the rest of its life.

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I can understand their reasoning, I just wonder why they didn't wait and see what is going to happen in the next few hours. They'd look rather foolish if RI did occur soon, regardless of how strong their reasoning was, even if they think RI is a low probability outcome. It's a communication issue too. People may begin to think it won't be so bad, when the potential for worse is there.

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7 minutes ago, cwc said:

The butthurt in this thread because NHC says Cat 3 is ridiculous.  NHC has been crushing this storm; forgive me for relying on experts..

The experts were very wrong last night when they had the wind staying at 150 mph when leaving Cuba.  I would say they only have an educated guess at best.  Irma will do as she pleases.

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2 minutes ago, JoMo said:

You think so? The whole "Irma isn't going to be weakened by Cuba" forecast last night sure hurts their credibility with their forecast now.  

Yeah I'll throw my lot in with the NHC at this point.  They obviously have the expertise and the most advanced data.  Think about it.  This is the most critical 24-36 hours in Irma's forecast WRT the United States.  Do you actually think they would downplay the possibilities of a ramp to cat 4 or 5 if the environment or data suggested so?  Data and human judgement are prone to error, and Irma has shown itself to be a unique cane, but I think the NHC would be sending different signals if probabilities suggested rapid intensification that overcomes shear and other variables.  If they end up being wrong they surely they will quickly course correct the communications.

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1 minute ago, CaWx said:

Don't get me wrong, I have great great respect for the NHC, but I would just like to here their reasononing behind not reaching Cat 4. If Irma was currently experiencing strong shearing, I'd be inclined to agree with their rationale. The reality is Irma isn't suppose to get those destructive shear readings until after passing the keys. Irma is about to strengthen, mark it down. It has all the fuel in the world and a clearing eye, things are going to be very interesting over the next 18hrs. 

They may just realize that the structure has some critical flaws.

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Some of us knew last night she would be beaten up by cuba. It is quite simple - land weakens cat 5s and she looked very much changed earlier today. Cat 5s need near perfection to stay intact. Maybe she recovers, who knows, but the casual disregard of the effects cuba would have on the storm were notable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, tazaroo said:

The experts were very wrong last night when they had the wind staying at 150 mph when leaving Cuba.  I would say they only have an educated guess at best.  Irma will do as she pleases.

Intensity forecasting is still very challenging. Models don't do well on it.

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