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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


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3 minutes ago, winterymix said:

We have the better part of an entire day before shear stops the re-intensification potential.

Up by Tampa, shear will become a hindrance on Irma and weaken it, which is reflected in the NHC projection, but beforehand it won't do too much. Strong hurricanes can also fight it off for a while. By the time it gets to near Tampa it will be way too late to weaken it meaningfully enough. Look how much Katrina weakened before landfall and how catastrophic it still was. 

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7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

From looking at Irma's circulation from another perspective, I suspect that the hurricane may need to reach 23.5°N latitude before its winds strengthen. It appears that the turn north is in its early stages.

Finally, I remain concerned that the ECMWF's 24-hour error of around 25 miles suggests a risk that Irma could pass to the west of Tampa bringing about a large storm surge along with severe winds and heavy rain.

 

Irma09092017.jpg

Well Don, Irma has certainly enjoyed staying on the Western edge of most guidance so I would not be surprised to see the Euro's 24-hour margin of error come into play. Time will tell. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Horrible, pretty much a worst case track fromNaples up to Tampa. The eyewall will rake that whole stretch on the consensus track there. 

 

 

Most of those models are early run ones not the ones they use the most for storms but i want to see the euro 00 and gfs 00 but really anymore the radar is our best model.

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Horrible, pretty much a worst case track fromNaples up to Tampa. The eyewall will rake that whole stretch on the consensus track there. 

The hook back offshore is deadly for tampa.

Also that is the opposite of the 18z map.  Now all models are to the west of the official forecast.

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2 minutes ago, williamGD said:

 

 

Most of those models are early run ones not the ones they use the most for storms but i want to see the euro 00 and gfs 00 but really anymore the radar is our best model.

So far, Irma has been moving almost on top of the 12z ECMWF track. It looks like Naples and Tampa will be hit very hard.

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4 minutes ago, williamGD said:

 

 

Most of those models are early run ones not the ones they use the most for storms but i want to see the euro 00 and gfs 00 but really anymore the radar is our best model.

??

So you are tossing the actual hurricane guidance in favor of the global models for a short range TC forecast?

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

The hook back offshore is deadly for tampa.

Also that is the opposite of the 18z map.  Now all models are to the west of the official forecast.

I'm not seeing how the eye goes east of Tampa at this point unless it goes due north. And no guidance shows that happening. Horrible news for Tampa Bay. It might be weakening at that point but the damage will have been done. 

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