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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

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Extrapolated pressure down another 4mb. Looks like a stronger outer wind max may be showing up on FL winds. Expect winds to slowly increase as the inner core reorganizes. 

 

She may not be that far off tbh. The IEW looks to be dissipating quickly, while the OEW shows signs of contraction. The outflow has really improved in all quadrants, especially the SE. Most importantly, imo, the ERC is ending as she gets into warm water, rather than beginning. This presents a prime opportunity for rather significant RI all other things considered.

 

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8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Woooooow on that Marathon camera...looks like they're well into tropical storm conditions and the core of the hurricane is still hundreds of miles away.

KMTH 092043Z AUTO 05037G57KT 1SM RA BR FEW019 BKN033 OVC040 26/26 A2938 RMK AO2 PK WND 05057/2037 P0008 T02610261

Marathon airport 37 kt, gusting to 57 kt (42.5mph, gust 66 mph), It would shake the trees pretty good, considered severe thunderstorm strength wind gust, that would result in 5" or larger tree limbs down in the Midwest

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IEW formed as Irma first exited the coast about 4 hours ago, not unexpected as the old core still had, and in fact has, a portion of its circulation over land...the coming hours, as Irma continues to pull away from Cuba, will determine whether or not the OEW is able to take over, that in turn will determine whether GFS-esque intensification is able to begin, there are many cases of both examples, only time will tell, I'm 60/40 on very bad news for the Gulf coast at this hour based on her history

Charlie was the very rare beast that underwent RI right up to the coast while sporting a distinct dual maxima feature, Irma had that feature at her peak for a while as well

edit: by "very bad news" I'm referring to a <910 mb central pressure, there are presently some adhesions showing up on radar btw the inner and outer eye wall features

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8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'm surprised the winds have not been upgraded yet with the pressure down to 933 mb.  The Saffir/Simpson Scale shows a Cat 3 as 945-964 mb and max winds at 129 mph.  A Cat 4 shows as 920-944 mb with winds ranging from 130-156 mph.  

The actual wind speed is a function of the pressure gradient, not the minimum in pressure. This is why Sandy and Ike both had considerably weaker peak winds than one would expect with 930-950 mb pressures. They were very large storms with somewhat loose cores (very loose in Sandy's case) and thus the gradient was not particularly tight.

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2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'm surprised the winds have not been upgraded yet with the pressure down to 933 mb.  The Saffir/Simpson Scale shows a Cat 3 as 945-964 mb and max winds at 129 mph.  A Cat 4 shows as 920-944 mb with winds ranging from 130-156 mph.  

Only a rough guide.  Every storm is different, in terms of size, background pressures, etc. 

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z hurricane models are towards the west coast of Florida but that doesn't mean that the east side is safe. This is going to be a dangerous storm for the whole state  and who ever didn't evacuate is foolish.

   It's a big storm, the number of people without power could easily go over the million mark.  That gets a little bit trying after the second day.

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