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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

fwiw, the 12z RGEM seems like it did a good job initializing location and it has Irma ping ponging on/off the coast from around Naples northward, with more of a move off the west coast near Tampa.  

The RGEM has been showing that for awhile with the herky jerky movement along the coast 

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon just found the pressure about 940 mb. (extrap plus a few)

disturbing to say the least especially with so much warm open water ahead.  as someone said, it looks like a cat 4 and that pressure would indicate it's right there at cat 3/4 already.

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Worst case for Tampa would be a LF near Tarpon Springs, like the 1921 storm, just north of the bay. Have to thread a needle for that to happen.

And yes, as the WaPost Article illustrates, Tampa is one of the top surge-prone metros in the in the US.   I remember back in the 80's (or 90's), Roy Leep (retired) from WTVT did a TV special about this. Tampa Bay, NOLA, NYC, & Houston-Galveston are the 'big 4' potential worse cases. Other places like Savannah, Charleston, Mobile, etc. are very vulnerable too, but there isn't as much there.

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5 minutes ago, jasons said:

Worst case for Tampa would be a LF near Tarpon Springs, like the 1921 storm, just north of the bay. Have to thread a needle for that to happen.

And yes, as the WaPost Article illustrates, Tampa is one of the top surge-prone metros in the in the US.   I remember back in the 80's (or 90's), Roy Leep (retired) from WTVT did a TV special about this. Tampa Bay, NOLA, NYC, & Houston-Galveston are the 'big 4' potential worse cases. Other places like Savannah, Charleston, Mobile, etc. are very vulnerable too, but there isn't as much there.

Correct.  I'll post this again for the worst case scenario with the track snip below,  Irma is extremely bad, as *modeled*.  But premature in terms of absolute impact as the track could still shift, and that will have huge implications for Tampa.

the Weather Channel just did a live shot from my street.

http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaycatplan/pdf/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf

 

IMG_2691.PNG

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Wind shear will effect the storm before it gets to Tampa, models have been showing this the entire time.  HWRF has done the best with landfall pressures this year and is initialized well shows 925mb for the florida keys, around 933mb at Port Charlotte landfall and  around 945mb when it crosses Tampa ay.

Assuming it doesn't touch land until Tampa, I'd put the landfall pressure somewhere in the 935mb-940mb with winds in the 120-140mph range.

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Wind shear will effect the storm before it gets to Tampa, models have been showing this the entire time.  HWRF has done the best with landfall pressures this year and is initialized well shows 925mb for the florida keys, around 933mb at Port Charlotte landfall and  around 945mb when it crosses Tampa ay.

Assuming it doesn't touch land until Tampa, I'd put the landfall pressure somewhere in the 935mb-940mb with winds in the 120-140mph range.

You're expecting pressure to remain steady state until landfall?

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Someone posted this last night as a guess but it was likely correct.  They said the small mountain range area near 80W in Cuba seemed to be causing the weakening and that continued til the center itself cleared 80W.  Once it did however it seemed the strengthening immediately started despite the fact the back side of the circulation still is east of 80W.  

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000
WTNT61 KNHC 091853
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
300 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...IRMA MOVING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 80.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
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5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Right? I think we will see the pressure keep dropping. Even if some wind shear is present. Those warm waters will induce deep convection and deepening

You can't just ignore the effects of wind shear like it doesn't exist, despite the fact that Matthew stayed healthy last year even under significant shear. Warm water can't overcome everything.

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Right? I think we will see the pressure keep dropping. Even if some wind shear is present. Those warm waters will induce deep convection and deepening

I'm really not concerned with wind shear. We've seen plenty of strong canes shrug off the kind of modest shear Irma will experience. I believe Matthew went cat 5 last year despite some westerly shear. Joaquin strengthened with fairly strong shear, if memory serves. This is an exceptional system with an almost ideal environment. Once it gets well clear of Cuba, I won't be surprised if it goes to town.

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