Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[TPAwx]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Euro WAY west at 48 hours vs. 12z -- hard to tell between the panels where landfall occurs -- maybe Tampa?

Not absolute worst case but this is pretty bad as is and even worse if Irma is able to deepen significantly.

[Lookout]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Initialized too high though.  Again, relative pressure trends (drop/no drop and by how much?) are more important.

It should also looks like euro is also too far south right off the bat...it has the eye completely on shore right now vs where it actually is.  I guess 20 or 30 mile difference but that's a big 20 or 30 mile difference down the line if it held up. 

[dan11295]

You wonder if it is too far West, It was too far SW with the core going over Cuba.

[Chicago Storm]

Irma is clearly NE of the Euro's initialized position, I have doubts that it'll go that far west.

Indeed.

The ECMWF is too far south at initialization and for 18z. It actually had it inland over Northern Cuba for 18z.

So anything it shows after shouldn't be taken at face value.

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Initialized too high though.  Again, relative pressure trends (drop/no drop and by how much?) are more important.

The Euro has consistently been much too high with pressure readings.

[Amped]

943mb over the mouth of Tampa bay at 1am monday

[Dunkman]

To add a bit to my last post hurricane force FL winds extend out 150 miles from the center. Those can absolutely be pulled down in the stronger squalls.

[CoastalWx]

The euro looked pretty bad for Tampa.

[olafminesaw]

[olafminesaw]

[dan11295]

Last GFS which is been too far NE consistently had it just west of Marco, so maybe those are the goal posts. picking a spot is nearly impossible due to the angles involved.

 

EDIT actually not that far W of the GFS. Irma would go over land some before it got to Tampa.

[Upper Level LOL]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

943mb over the mouth of Tampa bay at 1am monday

Absolute worst case scenario. Tampa gets hit with the NE side first, thus the highest surge, before the winds.

 

Just a month and a half ago, the Washington Post did an article on how ill-prepared Tampa was for a high-end storm ("worse than Katrina" in destruction). Another catastrophe in the making.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.a73d7214b623

[MattPetrulli]

TWC may finally have a good hurricane live shot, they have a crew in the Naples/Ft Myers area consisting of Paul Goodloe and Jim Cantore

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro looked pretty bad for Tampa.

Not quite worse case but def bad. Strengthening storm landfall between cape charlotte and sarasota?

[Superstorm93]

Lightning in the eyewall

Core is very much intact 

 

[EasternLI]

7 minutes ago, Lookout said:

It should also looks like euro is also too far south right off the bat...it has the eye completely on shore right now vs where it actually is.  I guess 20 or 30 mile difference but that's a big 20 or 30 mile difference down the line if it held up. 

I noticed the same. The big takeaway, for me, was that it showed a strengthening storm after moving back over water right up until landfall.

[hlcater]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

Lightning in the eyewall

Core is very much intact 

 

Am I seeing concentric eyewalls? Although they almost look too close together to be concentric.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

Absolute worst case scenario. Tampa gets hit with the NE side first, thus the highest surge, before the winds.

 

Just a month and a half ago, the Washington Post did an article on how ill-prepared Tampa was for a high-end storm ("worse than Katrina" in destruction). Another catastrophe in the making.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.a73d7214b623

I don't think it's quite the worst case.  How would surge get to them initially on E/NE winds?

[SACRUS]

Buoy daya

 

 

 

[McQuackleton]

Nice loop.

[jpeters3]

Looks like concentric eyewalls.

[dan11295]

IR appearance now looks like a strong Cat 3 at minimum. Cold tops around the eye now.

[Benadrill]

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Two good Twitter accounts to follow are mets working / deployed to NWS Key West: @fling40 and @GregHeav5 both are Millersville Univ. Alumni

[Quincy]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro looked pretty bad for Tampa.

Max wind gusts in mph around the time of landfall:

[OUGrad05]

12Z Euro looks like a Tampa landfall to me.  That's not good.  I had been hearing about a week ago they were glad it was going "east" because they weren't really prepared for anything beyond an 8 ft storm surge.  

[beanskip]

Before we get to Tampa, the real loser in this run is Charlotte Harbor and all the towns that surround it -- with landfall happening around Venice, this run is absolutely brutal for Sanibel, Captiva, Boca Grande, Punta Gorda etc. -- a lot of the same places hit by Charlie. 

[Summey]

Sorry if this is the wrong place but how does a model get initiated with such poor data?

[87storms]

pretty incredible event unfolding from key west to tampa.  did not expect that a couple days ago.  that scenario just didn't seem like the most logical one which shows just how much mother nature is in control of things.  

the eyewall looks completely healthy.  i see no reason why this won't be a cat 4/5 at landfall unless there's some shear/dry air intrusion that isn't really being modeled.  it's generally open water from here on out, not to mention daylight hours (not sure how much that truly impacts the structure, but i would imagine it doesn't hurt things).

[Blue Ridge]

Barely off the Cuban coastline and with only a few hours of reintensification under her belt, this is how Irma looks. 

I said it last night: this is one of the most fascinating canes of our time. Gonna be an interesting 24 hrs.