JerseyWeatherGuys Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Ok mets with actual hurricane forecast experience... this is outside of my wheelhouse so I need experts to chime in if possible: Given what we know about the forecast track and models so far, and the downgrade to Cat3 by NHC just now, can anyone number crunch the data as to the history of Irma / other TC's in Irma's similar location / conditions, and if so: 1. The data that would support intensification; 2. Realistic wind speed projections; 3. Have we witnessed any prior TC's recover / intensify significantly with under 115 miles to go before a US landstrike? (appreciate the feedback... again, there are just factors with TC's that I simply won't even pretend to guess here... I know what I don't know if that makes sense lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 30 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Thanks. I've been watching KBYX's radar on GR3 this morning. Core is definitely very healthy on radar and it's been moving WNW for past several hours ( the turn appears to have begun IMO). The GFS is verifying better at the moment on the COC than the EURO and it looks to free of cuba early this afternoon.. The IR tops have obviously warmed due to the land interaction. The eye never made it fully on shore. I think that long penninsula/island chain just NE of the Cuba mainland has had more of an impact than anticipated. That and of course the SW side being disrupted by mountainous terrain. All things considered, the pressure rise was well modeled and we should no doubt see re-intensification tonight. Given the shear being relatively minor until it reaches central Florida and the TCHP of the Florida straits, it has potential to bomb out again, no doubt. Whether it does all depends on ERC's/inner dynamics of the Hurricane. I will say this, in 24 hours some of the posts this morning will be looked at as some of the dumbest in weather board history. That I have no doubts about and will be tempted to bump troll. Well said. I'd be tempted to help you do it too but there'd be too many to bump. This idea the hurricane's inner core will be completely disrupted simply for scraping the coast seems rather bizarre to me. It would be one thing if it was crossing the island or going deep inland but it's not now and it's not expected to go deep inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: It hasn't made it completely on shore as of yet, and it needs to make a hard left right about now in order to do so from what I'm seeing. I agree, I was referencing that Euro shot, it could hit cuba again as a 4, but it won't stay over Cuba and simultaneously strengthen to a 4, sorry wasn't clear, juggling a phone call on a business deal :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 GFS is a tick or two N so far (only thru 9 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Best IR presentation in past few hours, the "stick a fork in it" posts are trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Best IR presentation in past few hours, the "stick a fork in it" posts are trolling Eye is barely on shore in that shot, that water is so warm that when it pulls back out over water, with its core structure it will probably strengthen fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Best IR presentation in past few hours, the "stick a fork in it" posts are trolling Trolls will troll, but the radar is showing a NW movement recently https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Best IR presentation in past few hours, the "stick a fork in it" posts are trolling The posts from this morning are eerily reminiscent of the bust posts we see prior to some of our strongest Nor'Easters during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Interesting -- 12z GFS shows pretty significant increase in speed at 18 hours vs. 6z -- jumps north quickly and ends up with 14 mb lower pressure than 6z run at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 WOW, 12z GFS really blowing Irma up through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Currently it looks like it's on track to stay strong and strengthen to a solid cat 4 on its way up to Florida. it has a stronger chance for it to start heading into favorable conditions and northerly than it is to bury itself further west in cubas coast. Nothing to downplay here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 As you can see on the 12z GFS, the key to the track of Irma is going to be Capa Ramano --if the storm passes Ramano (and Marco Island) without making landfall, then shifts of just a few miles in track (because of the angle of approach) can be the difference between a landfall somewhere around Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay or the storm NEVER making landfall on the peninsula and instead coming ashore for the first time in the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamGD Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 So the new GFS that is coming out and moving it a little east and north from the last run make no difference? what if the Euro has it a little more east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 IMHO, the western extent of the huge Atlantic ridge seems to be receding east. What do others here see on the depiction below? Within an hour or two, we will know if that north job is a blip or the beginning of the journey to FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Cuba's coast started to bend more westerly in a bit. Have to see if it tries to keep following the coast at that time or not. Unclear if the current apparent NW motion on radar is a real change in direction or the storm just hugging the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 25 mb drop in 6 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This increase in speed is one of the most significant short-term model trends we've seen in the past few days -- that's an almost 100-mile shift from the 6z run only 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Recon 26 only found 100kt surface winds...that's pretty drastic step down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Btw guys, don't focus too much on actual pressures on GFS, the fact is it currently over-deepens storms the general. The trend to deepen is whats more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The WC has just said unequivocally that Irma will intensify once it gets to open waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Key West is going to take it on the chin tomorrow. One of my favorite cities. Kinda sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Recon 26 only found 100kt surface winds...that's pretty drastic step down... Can recon even give us the full picture right now? I can't imagine the Air Force has permission to fly in Cuban airspace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 As demonstrated last night you can see anything you want with individual frames and usually its a mirage. I am praying it continues to hug the coast or go inland to damage it further. The US cannot sustain another disaster.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS has it go from 946 to 896 in 24 hours. Wow if that happens although I think its probably a bit overdone but a substantial drop in pressure would not surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Recon 26 only found 100kt surface winds...that's pretty drastic step down... Yeah. At least the curvature of the coast starts to bend more westerly soon. Should allow it to start to gain distance from the coast. It's also starting to pull away from the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It seems to me that we are witnessing a year year where storms achieve and maintain healthy cores that don't easily get disrupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Can recon even give us the full picture right now? I can't imagine the Air Force has permission to fly in Cuban airspace. No but they are able to get what is typically the strongest two quads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: It seems to me that we are witnessing a year year where storms achieve and maintain healthy cores that don't easily get disrupted. For sure, if anything, they seem more resilient to adverse surroundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: Yeah, was just going to post, pretty well within range on Key West and Miami radars now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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