TPAwx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Pretty discouraging to wake up and see the overnight Euro and track adjustments. Very encouraging to see Irma feeling the effects of land interaction and weakening perhaps beyond what was communicated. I'll take it, and would like to see more erosion before Irma emerges into the Florida Straits and heads north. The track and the severity of actual impacts up along the FLA Gulf Coast is still subject to very small deviations, even 10-20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The model that shall not be named has Irma hugging the Cuba coast for about 12 more hours before the turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looks like the majority of the 12z hurricane intensity guidance keeps Irma a Cat 3, couple low end Cat 4. Also maybe a tiny tiny shift to the west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The Ukmet had the Cuba landfall for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TennTradition Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: The Ukmet had the Cuba landfall for days. Did Irma actually make a Cuba landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ag3 said: The Ukmet had the Cuba landfall for days. In all due respect the UKmet had IRMA going far into Cuba that clearly isn't happening here... it's a brush of the coast. This hurricane still has plenty of time once fully off coast to re strengthen. IRMA has been all surprises for all of us. Hitting extremely high wind speeds for record times and low mb readings. Just because of some interaction with Cuba doesn't mean it won't ramp back up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Irma seems to be moving WNW based off KBYX's radar. Also presents the inner core to be in tact still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 In all due respect the UKmet had IRMA going far into Cuba that clearly isn't happening here... it's a brush of the coast. This hurricane still has plenty of time once fully off coast to re strengthen. IRMA has been all surprises for all of us. Hitting extremely high wind speeds for record times and low mb readings. Just because of some interaction with Cuba doesn't mean it won't ramp back up again. As long as her core is in tact... She has the distinct potential for incredibly rapid deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: 9 minutes ago, allgame830 said: In all due respect the UKmet had IRMA going far into Cuba that clearly isn't happening here... it's a brush of the coast. This hurricane still has plenty of time once fully off coast to re strengthen. IRMA has been all surprises for all of us. Hitting extremely high wind speeds for record times and low mb readings. Just because of some interaction with Cuba doesn't mean it won't ramp back up again. As long as her core is in tact... She has the distinct potential for incredibly rapid deepening. Yes totally agree and I should of made that more clear in my post... but as of right now her core is in tact and don't see that being a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 12Z Nam continues the slight eastward trend shown on its 06Z output. edit: 00Z output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The last recon fix was 941mb, with most recent snodes showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, jasons said: Just saw the new guidance. So in a day and a half, we've gone from an east coast runner to a west coast runner. Most of my family and friends are in the bay area. I'm just sick. The GFS beyond hour 240 actually had this type of track as a pegged possibility I find that amazing actually! I am really kicking myself because I wished I would have saved that run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Irma is going to have 30 hours or so over 85-90 degree water temps in a perfect environment to strengthen. Still think it hits as a Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 URNT12 KNHC 091419 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017 A. 09/14:02:00Z B. 22 deg 45 min N 079 deg 35 min W C. 700 mb 2590 m D. 99 kt E. 043 deg 9 nm F. 120 deg 104 kt G. 034 deg 17 nm H. 941 mb I. 13 C / 3052 m J. 16 C / 3051 m K. NA / NA L. CLOSED M. C15 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF307 2611A IRMA OB 22 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 105 KT 017 / 22 NM 14:09:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 175 / 7 KT Eye has shrunk considerably due to frictional effects. However, its life is running a bit low on time. If it shrinks too much with it still partially on land and insufficient flux to support core convection, it could collapse. Riding a fine line here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Irma is going to have 30 hours or so over 85-90 degree water temps in a perfect environment to strengthen. Still think it hits as a Cat 4. Bastardi predicting Cat 5 at LF, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It would be kinda poetic if Cuba ended up saving Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Bastardi predicting Cat 5 at LF, FWIW I agree cat five is a good possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Irma seems to be moving WNW based off KBYX's radar. Also presents the inner core to be in tact still. Thanks. I've been watching KBYX's radar on GR3 this morning. Core is definitely very healthy on radar and it's been moving WNW for past several hours ( the turn appears to have begun IMO). The GFS is verifying better at the moment on the COC than the EURO and it looks to free of cuba early this afternoon.. The IR tops have obviously warmed due to the land interaction. The eye never made it fully on shore. I think that long penninsula/island chain just NE of the Cuba mainland has had more of an impact than anticipated. That and of course the SW side being disrupted by mountainous terrain. All things considered, the pressure rise was well modeled and we should no doubt see re-intensification tonight. Given the shear being relatively minor until it reaches central Florida and the TCHP of the Florida straits, it has potential to bomb out again, no doubt. Whether it does all depends on ERC's/inner dynamics of the Hurricane. I will say this, in 24 hours some of the posts this morning will be looked at as some of the dumbest in weather board history. That I have no doubts about and will be tempted to bump troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Michigander said: Bastardi predicting Cat 5 at LF, FWIW Given that he's an adamant denier of climate change, it's not worth much. Not saying that it can't be Cat 5, I'm still concerned what the next 12 hours will bring as Irma heads over the bath water between Cuba and FL, but Bastardi deserves zero credit and attention as a Serious Meteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: 3 minutes ago, Michigander said: Bastardi predicting Cat 5 at LF, FWIW I agree cat five is a good possibility I wonder if the proposed strengthening process can concentrate angular momentum. To put it simply, the storm will soon have reduced friction and access to an increase of ocean latent heat. As it speeds up in an increasingly favorable environment, does it become a heat engine with increasing concentrated energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 let's also not have a short memory... harvey was reduced to nearly a swirl of clouds and we all saw what it was able to accomplish in a 24 hour period under the right conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Seeing some chasers staying in the Keys currently. I really hope they don't stay there for LF, it's really a leave or die situation in the Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I wonder if the proposed strengthening process can concentrate angular momentum. To put it simply, the storm will soon have reduced friction and access to an increase of ocean latent heat. As it speeds up in an increasingly favorable environment, does it become a heat engine with increasing concentrated energy?On the other thread I commented about ERC and how the HBL has issues with angular momentum hence the need for ERC. Essentially, this is what happens as they strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 125 MPH/941 MB, W at 9 MPH:11 AM advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 What bothers me is that we all knew based on the models that it was going to potentially scrape or make LF in Cuba and de-intensify, yet people still freaked out. What worries me is that I always read from mets that a strengthening hurricane is a lot more dangerous than a weakening one and it looks like we'll get just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Before the 11AM, can we just agree to not all rush to post it first? Be sure to look to see if it's been posted before putting it in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Updated surge values Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay...4 to 6 ft Isle of Palms, South Carolina to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: What bothers me is that we all knew based on the models that it was going to potentially scrape or make LF in Cuba and de-intensify, yet people still freaked out. What worries me is that I always read from mets that a strengthening hurricane is a lot more dangerous than a weakening one and it looks like we'll get just that. The NHC still had it at 155mph at this time in their advisory last night, so they did not anticipate this much weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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