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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


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The core may still be fairly intact for now but this still has a long way to go before it's far enough away from the Cuban coastline to start recovering. I'm thinking it emerges as a Cat 2, restrengthens to a 3 before landfall. It is a big system and these are the ones that often take the longest to recover, even with bath water to work with.

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5 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

A few things to note WRT reintensification potential. Depends on 4 things IMO: SST (CHECK), Inner Core organization (TBD depending on extent of Cuba interaction next 12 hours or so), Mid Level moisture (dry air is knocking on the door, but not wrapped into the core yet by tomorrow AM), and wind shear (again, knocking on the door, but not in the system yet by the time we get to tomorrow AM).

ECMWF 500mb RH tomorrow AM: https://weather.us/model-ch...
ECMWF 300mb winds tomorrow AM: https://weather.us/model-ch...

Many other full res ECMWF parameters for free via menus, click image to zoom in and click near edge of image to pan :)

jack - don't know if you saw my request for more detailed info/more frequent snapshots of the Euro than is available on TT, but this is exactly what I was looking for, with the ability to look at model output of many more variables in 3 hour increments.  Simply awesome.  Thanks!!!

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Just now, RU848789 said:

jack - don't know if you saw my request for more detailed info/more frequent snapshots of the Euro than is available on TT, but this is exactly what I was looking for, with the ability to look at model output of many more variables in 3 hour increments.  Simply awesome.  Thanks!!!

No problem! We have all the full res parameters in 3 hour steps for free, now along with EPS ensemble data for every location in the world. Here's the Marathon Key wind forecast: https://weather.us/forecast/4163379-marathon/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts 10th percentile is 102 mph! Yikes! 

We also have cool stuff like Simulated Satellite imagery. Here's the ECMWF showing a large eye spanning from Port Charlotte to Bradenton on Sunday night: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/824-w-281-n/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170911-0600z.html 

You can also create custom domains for any parameter by selecting the "Custom zoom" option. Click the map to zoom in and click near edge to pan until it's juuuust right :) hope everyone enjoys!

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090900_54_8837_482.png

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3 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

The core may still be fairly intact for now but this still has a long way to go before it's far enough away from the Cuban coastline to start recovering. I'm thinking it emerges as a Cat 2, restrengthens to a 3 before landfall. It is a big system and these are the ones that often take the longest to recover, even with bath water to work with.

Agree to an extent...a lot of the potential re-intensification will also be tied into what happens with the outer core (exhibited on the latest microwave image)...if that takes over during the next 18 hrs., then we could see similar deepening as what was seen last evening, prior to the push near the N. Cuban coast...

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Heading back inland now. Frictional torque may help it stay near/on the coast, but it looks like the nearest chance for it to split and get offshore won't occur until sometime tonight.

Yeah the greatest low-level convergence is to the WNW along the coastline due to frictional contrast between the land and ocean. That effect would seem to favor a continued short-term hugging of the coast.

You can see in the surface obs and radar plot below that there is some relatively dry air (73F dew points) over southeast Cuba. The closer surface stations may have malfunctioned, but we can probably expect that dew points closer to Irma's center are comparable, especially given the downslope flow off the hills in central Cuba. It will be interesting to see how quickly the center of circulation can move away from the coast and get more favorable latent heat transport into the storm.

59b3e21f398ca_Screenshotfrom2017-09-0908-41-25.png.6ef67ae90c2b2ee9727d0f9ae6898e61.png

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59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why did NHC mention Cuba would not weaken it that much? I was puzzled by that last night. Since when does land not affect a tropical cyclone? Put away the intensity consensus sometimes.

I thought that was a head-scratcher too. TWC mets were emphasizing that last night as well. I wonder if there was an element of not wanting Floridians to let their guard down?

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I thought that was a head-scratcher too. TWC mets were emphasizing that last night as well. I wonder if there was an element of not wanting Floridians to let their guard down?

Part of it was she was not expected to make LF. Again, the core is in tact. Those Temps and an in tact core can easily yield incredibly rapid intensification
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2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Not a good post....

Pretty much nothing wrong with what I posted......I agree that no one should let there guard down and I did not post anything absolute......that's what the words "may" and "probably" mean.  It's just amazing to me that with all the model runs and what looked like could have been we're down to watching it trek across the northern coast of Cuba which is having a bit more of an impact than the NHC and others thought (me included). 

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4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Those Temps and an in tact core can easily yield incredibly rapid intensification

I agree with this. Once the core got back together after the eyewall replacement cycle, it strengthed very quickly. The shape of the coast is really hurting things now. It has to turn hard to get away and strengthen.  

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1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said:

Pretty much nothing wrong with what I posted......I agree that no one should let there guard down and I did not post anything absolute......that's what the words "may" and "probably" mean.  It's just amazing to me that with all the model runs and what looked like could have been we're down to watching it trek across the northern coast of Cuba which is having a bit more of an impact than the NHC and others thought (me included). 

At least IMO...it's dangerous to assume it still won't be a major. It really depends on how intact it will be after being in Cuba. If the core remains formidable as it turns north...all bets are off.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well nobody should, but I didn't follow their logic. 

Completely agree that no one should let their guard down.

As others have noted, it's fascinating to watch how some of these storms seem to dance along the edges of land masses. I've appreciated some of the experts' explanations of the various dynamics involved.

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The sw turn last night was unforeseen but many forecasts did predict a good deal of interaction with Cuba and forgot the basic fact that a cat 4 or 5 needs deep warm water and near perfect atmospheric conditions to maintain. Maybe this makes a nw turn and strengthens back into her former glory but if it does not and continues to get shredded by Cuba there will be a lot of red faces in the nhc. I would still advocate that residents evacuate considering the uncertainty and history of this thing, though.


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1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said:

Pretty much nothing wrong with what I posted......I agree that no one should let there guard down and I did not post anything absolute......that's what the words "may" and "probably" mean.  It's just amazing to me that with all the model runs and what looked like could have been we're down to watching it trek across the northern coast of Cuba which is having a bit more of an impact than the NHC and others thought (me included). 

From the NHC at 11pm last night...

If the eye continues to move over the Cuban Keys and does not move
inland over the main island of Cuba, then Irma would likely not
lose much intensity during the next day or so.  As we've stated
many times, fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 36
hours due to possible and unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles.
After 36 hours, there are some indications that vertical shear may
increase over the hurricane, and a little more weakening is
anticipated at that time.  Because of the concerns in the track
forecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong
intensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the
west Florida coast.  Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west
coast of Florida through 48 hours.
 

There has been a secondary wind max not too far from the IEW....I think this played just as important of a part of the weakening (and maybe additive) as was the Cuban proximity.

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Sometimes it helps to step away for a few hours and get some sleep. Have to admit, I'm pretty shocked to see how sickly Irma looks this morning. She has most definitely taken a beating overnight, and she's still hugging the coast. I'm sure folks in SE Florida are feeling much better this morning.

I've already gotten the first text, from a friend I begged to evacuate: "Thanks for nothing!"

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