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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

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The eye was/is basically on land when you consider the shallow shelf water there and that large island chain just offshore Cuba. Doesn't appear it will make it inland however and will likely bounce off the coastline until it turns NW tomorrow. Don't think we'll start to see it bomb out again until it's clearly away from the land and reaches the Florida straits. From there, wouldn't be surprised to see anything really, strength wise, if the models are accurate.

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At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Cuban radar data
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.2 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the northwest is
expected by late today. On the forecast track, the center of Irma
will move near the north coast of Cuba today, near the Florida Keys
Sunday morning, and then near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday
afternoon
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Still Cat 5..

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...EYE OF IRMA MOVING OVER THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AS A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 78.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES
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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Euro has been consistently off on intensity throughout, by a fairly constant value too.

So I would definitely take the intensity estimates in a relative, not absolute, sense.

Yeah, none of the global models have handled it well. Not even the mesoscale models either, really. Not totally uncommon for such a deep cyclone, but model trends (strengthen/weaken) can still have some value. 

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4 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Last advisory has Irma at 930mb . The EURO has it on this run at 950 . 20 mb difference . Should we expect that right before land fall at cape coral roughly around 909mb ???? 

I'd wait to see what it's at when it clears Cuba.  But as has been mentioned, the signal on some models for rapid deepening is concerning.

This Euro run is sort of like Charley on steroids, given the much bigger size of Irma.

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8 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Last advisory has Irma at 930mb . The EURO has it on this run at 950 . 20 mb difference . Should we expect that right before land fall at cape coral roughly around 909mb ???? 

It drops roughly 23mb's from it's exit point on Cuba until landfall in Florida. It has been too high on pressure most of Irma's existence. I wouldn't read too much into the exact pressure projections on the euro. The most disturbing strengthening forecasted is on the GFS. It drops it from 936mb's to 894mb's. Just ponder a storm this size striking at sub 900mb's. Would likely be the most catastrophic Hurricane strike in history of the CONUS. People downplaying this one are downright stupid and know nothing about models/forecasting.

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1 minute ago, Crazieman said:

IR presentation is terrible at the moment.  The core appears to have sustained structural damage.  That coupled with the rise in pressure is excellent news for Florida.

Always the huge question, how well can it recover over the jet fuel in the straits.

see above post. This isn't over

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