Kelathos Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 The eye is starting to cloud over? Or at least contract further. Land interaction must be hampering it now. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Actually, I misread the difference. It is N, not NE of the position, and more like 30-40 miles, not 50-60.I wasn't going to nitpick.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Actually, I misread the difference. It is N, not NE of the position, and more like 30-40 miles, not 50-60. I wasn't going to nitpick.. I know. Just wanted to get it correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Some pretty good squalls coming into the MIA area with the outer bands of Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 here's a link to the long range miami radar loop for when irma gets into range https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=01100000&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Fwiw - there are going to be any number of jogs... At some point in the next 12 hours Irma will turn and start to take a clear direction; the next model runs after that (12z) will be the more definitive. Watching the storm now is probably less useful. It seems relatively clear that it will.make landfall somewhere between Tampa and the very southern tip of FL... my bet is around Naples. But that's really only a 40 mile range, when you cut it north to south. The level of precision we all want won't be there until noon tomorrow. And precision matters less in a storm this size anyway. So by all means parse the GFS CMC and euro... but it's a game of inches. I think there will be a decent period tomorrow night where the exact path becomes pretty obvious, give or take a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 GEFS mean did not budge from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: here's a link to the long range miami radar loop for when irma gets into range https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=01100000&loop=yes Non flash version: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=01100000&loop=yes e: Is there a way to get 248nm radar on the cod.edu site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looks like some power outages being reported already around Miami-Dade County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Seems to be pulling away from Cuba now, but land interaction has clearly already had a significant impact on Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said: Seems to be pulling away from Cuba now, but land interaction has clearly already had a significant impact on Irma. Probably down to a Cat 4 again, but honestly the bathwater should fix her up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said: Seems to be pulling away from Cuba now, but land interaction has clearly already had a significant impact on Irma. I don't think it's going to really start pulling away for another 12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said: Seems to be pulling away from Cuba now, but land interaction has clearly already had a significant impact on Irma. I might be missing something, but I wonder how much of the degraded appearance on the western side (on satellite) is due to interaction with Cuba. Wouldn't the southern side be more likely to take a hit? Anyway, next recon will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: I don't think it's going to really start pulling away for another 12 hours or so. It may totally be over water soon however. Its been skirting those islands the last 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: I don't think it's going to really start pulling away for another 12 hours or so. May just be a continuation of that "stairstepping" wobble pattern seen earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It may totally be over water soon however. Its been skirting those islands the last 2 hours Yeah, true. Just noting that an actual departure from Cuba is still pretty far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I might be missing something, but I wonder how much of the degraded appearance on the western side (on satellite) is due to interaction with Cuba. Wouldn't the southern side be more likely to take a hit? Anyway, next recon will be interesting. I think it might pulling dry air around from the mountains on the SE side of Cuba.. The dry air is coming around into the nwq of the storm though. The core is fighting it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I might be missing something, but I wonder how much of the degraded appearance on the western side (on satellite) is due to interaction with Cuba. Wouldn't the southern side be more likely to take a hit? Anyway, next recon will be interesting. I was sort of thinking the same thing. The area that lose enhancement was not where you'd expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I might be missing something, but I wonder how much of the degraded appearance on the western side (on satellite) is due to interaction with Cuba. Wouldn't the southern side be more likely to take a hit? Anyway, next recon will be interesting. I think there some topography interaction going on there. Likely down sloping off the mountain range in that vicinity. See below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Woah, recon showing a jump all the way to 931mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 set this loop to the fastest setting and you'll notice all the wobbles http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=s_atlantic-wv-1-96&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Woah, recon showing a jump all the way to 931mb.Not that huge a jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: 6 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: Woah, recon showing a jump all the way to 931mb. Not that huge a jump Just didn't expect it to go from 924 to 931 is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just didn't expect it to go from 924 to 931 is all.Yeah, I didnt mean to sound rude... I meant this is actually a lower pressure than I was expecting based on sat appearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 8 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: Woah, recon showing a jump all the way to 931mb. Not that huge a jump Euro had 950s, so, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: Woah, recon showing a jump all the way to 931mb. Considering the fact it made partial landfall, that's actually really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 looks like the eye is trying to blow up again now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Considering the fact it made partial landfall, that's actually really good. I was gonna say...Didnt the 11pm report sat 924? Lol Although...you have to wonder if we actually will see a more significant jump of it's gonna stay on the coast of Cuba longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Man, Irma is taking a beating. Wow, did Miami ever dodge a bullet....we would have had an intensifying cat 5 approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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