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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

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18 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Just reviewing the 12z Euro...and, unless Irma takes a hard left turn over the next few hours, it'll be off by quite a bit to the south by 7am.

Euro7am.png

 

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not sure if the RGEM is remotely useful but it sure has a track more like the Euro and hurricane models into Fort Myers

HRRRX for what's it worth. The model consensus has more or less converged.

651846E3-833D-4AD0-8550-6C61B121A0AC-17372-0000090C02A5E11F.thumb.png.d277f385ec8684c11327e2c492c30040.png

 

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12 minutes ago, aperson said:

A met posted on here a few days ago something that really cleared this up for me. The motion path of hurricanes is trochoidal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trochoid

 

Think of taking a top that is moving forward and then lightly blowing on one side of it in the same direction as its rotation

Question: if you can determine the deformation (is this the right term?) in the trochoidal movement can you determine the force of the "light blowing"? Would this serve to help predict movement going forward?

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Look how the structure of the storm has changed between frame 1 (approaching the Cuban coastline on a west trajectory) to frame 200 (being influenced by the shortwave) of the current satellite imagery. Not only has the orientation of the storm changed, but it has grown in size as well.

001.JPG

200.JPG

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1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

You can see it on GOES-16 2 min intervals, hit a wall and slight NW movement last 2 frames.

 

 

It appears the southern heavier band rotating under and around the rim nudged it up with the northern part going up with it. Kind of like teeter tottering. Not sure if that has any effects physics wise in correlation with the circulation track. 

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Homestead FL - gusts to 37 kt, that's the first gale (tropical storm force) on the US mainland. It's from a squall

central Cuba - Camaguey

MUCM 090350Z 23044G61KT 3000 RA BKN005 OVC020 24/24 Q0984
MUCM 090250Z 24044G61KT 3000 RA BKN005 OVC060 24/24 Q0982
MUCM 090150Z 25041G55KT 1000 +SHRA BKN005 OVC060 23/23 Q0984
MUCM 090050Z 25040G58KT 1000 +SHRA BKN005 OVC060 22/22 Q0986

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I'm just an amateur but I think these most recent shifts to the east are just corrections to the coastal bobble by Irma to avoid the coast. I don't think it necessarily is starting a northern track as it is just going to ride the coast. The models however will bounce back and forth as she wobbles back and forth.

 

*edit referring to coast of Cuba in case it was unclear.

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4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Anyone know a good website to watch the loops of this now? Been using intellicast but it seems to be down now and for some reason wunderground doesn't let you animate the satellite anymore

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-1-100

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-100

I've been refreshing these every 5 minutes for the last hour and a half.

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1 minute ago, dbullsfan said:

I'm just an amateur but I think these most recent shifts to the east are just corrections to the coastal bobble by Irma to avoid the coast. I don't think it necessarily is starting a northern track as it is just going to ride the coast. The models however will bounce back and forth as she wobbles back and forth.

Shifts like these are the reason why there's an uncertainty cone. An east correction is certainly possible. If the real move north happens at a slightly sharper angle than expected, that would have implications in South Florida. A devastating impact on the eastern coast is still possible. 

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