USCG RS Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Nice pivot nw as she kisses Cuba. Incoming. Good luck FL. And she has so much potential to explode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Let's try and look before posting so we can eliminate repeated posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 You can see it on GOES-16 2 min intervals, hit a wall and slight NW movement last 2 frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, sojitodd said: So wasn't interaction with Cuba supposed to weaken this a bit? Instead it has interacted and is back up to 160mph? I don't get it. Half of COC core remained over water plus as many have said she is healthy all around and conditions atmospherically are good for her to remain in tact provided the entire eye doesnt go completely inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, sojitodd said: So wasn't interaction with Cuba supposed to weaken this a bit? Instead it has interacted and is back up to 160mph? I don't get it. The interaction is really between the relatively stable eyewall and Cuba, not so much the overall CDO and Cuba. That interaction is really just starting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-20 i cannot stop watching this loop. Consistent SW motion and then it hits a wall. Last few frames look to be NW. One of the most fascinating tropical cyclones of our time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 11pm Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: You can see it on GOES-16 2 min intervals, hit a wall and slight NW movement last 2 frames. Although it's not a fan favorite here, the NAM had the Cuba skirt then pretty dramatic turn N/NW last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Blue Ridge said: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-20 i cannot stop watching this loop. Consistent SW motion and then it hits a wall. Last few frames look to be NW. One of the most fascinating tropical cyclones of our time. This storm is going to spawn so many dissertations... Hopefully this is the last of the "historic" storms of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Kinda surprised there are still hurricane warnings in the NW Bahamas. I doubt they see hurricane force winds if the center hugs the west FL coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Just now, sojitodd said: So wasn't interaction with Cuba supposed to weaken this a bit? Instead it has interacted and is back up to 160mph? I don't get it. It can still weaken over the course of tonight with expectation of riding parallel to the northern coastline. It's been stated multiple times this evening that the northern fringes of the Cuban coast are flat and the interaction with the land at first will be minor. Through the course of any entire evening and into the morning, the core of the cyclone will be be half on and half off, so there will, at the very least, be some plateauing of intensity as this moves WNW and more than likely some pressure rises will occur. Once the turn is made between 18-22z tomorrow, as long as the core of Irma holds together and is structurally sound, she will be in the best breading environment there is, outside of the Western Caribbean, for further intensification with limited shear until she reaches the Keys. TCHP is running very high with deep layered warm water between 86-89F through its journey toward the island chain. This will be fun to watch through the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 I have a question now. I think it's apparent she has hit a wall and you can start to see the tug to the NW. If this is true (and not a wobble), could this mean a correction east? Isn't this happening a bit sooner than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-96-1-20 i cannot stop watching this loop. Consistent SW motion and then it hits a wall. Last few frames look to be NW. One of the most fascinating tropical cyclones of our time. Watch the loops of Sandy taking a left turn into NJ/NY, it almost looks like a 45° turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: 11pm Advisory Wish we had some in between points between 8 pm Sun and 8 pm Mon, but that is just about as bad as it gets for southwest FL, and continues to increase concern for pretty damaging winds into the Tampa area with potential surge issues depending on exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Kinda surprised there are still hurricane warnings in the NW Bahamas. I doubt they see hurricane force winds if the center hugs the west FL coast. The southern most Bahama island will probably experience hurricane gusts at the very least. Not sure they can just issue a warning for parts of the islands therefore warning is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Although it's not a fan favorite here, the NAM had the Cuba skirt then pretty dramatic turn N/NW last run. There is a 19 MB difference between what the 0z NAM initialized the storm at and what the actual pressure is at with the 11 pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, jasons said: I have a question now. I think it's apparent she has hit a wall and you can start to see the tug to the NW. If this is true (and not a wobble), could this mean a correction east? Isn't this happening a bit sooner than expected? I was also wondering about this and about a slowing forward motion causing a turn to the north farther east than expected. I just don't trust this storm to do what it is supposed to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Hurricane Watches are up for some of the Florida panhandle, including Tallahassee. The latest NHC track isn't far off from not making landfall until the panhandle, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 We may also be dealing with a trochoidal motion.... getting images every minute may stretch our perception of time (vs. the 15 min scans in the past)...this really has only "shown" a northward component for 30 minutes or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, jasons said: I have a question now. I think it's apparent she has hit a wall and you can start to see the tug to the NW. If this is true (and not a wobble), could this mean a correction east? Isn't this happening a bit sooner than expected? Probably not. The model agreement is pretty strong right now and some hurricane models and Euro ensembles do have a more WNW track off Cuba yet still put it into western Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It can still weaken over the course of tonight with expectation of riding parallel to the northern coastline. It's been stated multiple times this evening that the northern fringes of the Cuban coast are flat and the interaction with the land at first will be minor. Through the course of any entire evening and into the morning, the core of the cyclone will be be half on and half off, so there will, at the very least, be some plateauing of intensity as this moves WNW and more than likely some pressure rises will occur. Once the turn is made between 18-22z tomorrow, as long as the core of Irma holds together and is structurally sound, she will be in the best breading environment there is, outside of the Western Caribbean, for further intensification with limited shear until she reaches the Keys. TCHP is running very high with deep layered warm water between 86-89F through its journey toward the island chain. This will be fun to watch through the night. 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Wish we had some in between points between 8 pm Sun and 8 pm Mon, but that is just about as bad as it gets for southwest FL, and continues to increase concern for pretty damaging winds into the Tampa area with potential surge issues depending on exact track. The land in that archipelago are mostly mangrove swamp (look in google maps & turn on the satellite background). That means it's still essentially over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Difficult to see where the cone is on the last NHC update with the watch/warning lines so here's a screencap of the interactive map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Irma's size is huge, I mean HF winds extend out to 70 miles from the center and TS force 185 miles, unreal. It does look like on the Goes-16 Infrared that Irma may be starting to possibly take that more northwesterly component away from the Cuban coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, mfgmfg said: Difficult to see where the cone is on the last NHC update with the watch/warning lines so here's a screencap of the interactive map: If you turn off the warnings, it passes directly over Summerland Key. Big Pine Key in the RFQ. Key West on the "good" side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Latest recon fix has a continued due west movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 If you turn off the warnings, it passes directly over Summerland Key. Big Pine Key in the RFQ. Key West on the "good" side. It won't really matter if Key West is on the "good" side with that track as the surge will move over the island as the eyewall moves over the shelf. That's a horrible scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: It won't really matter if Key West is on the "good" side with that track as the surge will move over the island as the eyewall moves over the shelf. That's a horrible scenario. Plus category 3 sustained winds, if not stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 cayo coco resort area looks to get hit directly, hopefully they prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 You can see this here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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