Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

I believe Irma has finally completed the complicated EWRC....the IR loop from GOES 16 shows the higher cloud top "tentacle" to have finally "connected" to the formative OEW....not sure (since no models shows this) that imminent deepening will take place, but with a more intact structure, she will be able to better withstand Cuban interaction, for sure....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

I believe Irma has finally completed the complicated EWRC....the IR loop from GOES 16 shows the higher cloud top "tentacle" to have finally "connected" to the formative OEW....not sure (since no models shows this) that imminent deepening will take place, but with a more intact structure, she will be able to better withstand Cuban interaction, for sure....

Taking a peek at water vapor loops from GOES-16, storm is certainly restructuring itself quite nicely at this hour.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

CNN saying NWS confirmed it'll be a Cat 5 at landfall. Any source for this, I can't find one.

I don't see that here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/082100.shtml

 

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

I believe Irma has finally completed the complicated EWRC....the IR loop from GOES 16 shows the higher cloud top "tentacle" to have finally "connected" to the formative OEW....not sure (since no models shows this) that imminent deepening will take place, but with a more intact structure, she will be able to better withstand Cuban interaction, for sure....

Big, symmetric bursts of convection and a warming eye. Definitely signs of intensification after being mostly steady state throughout the day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Papa Joe said:

Do they live on the Ocean side or the Gulf side?

Not sure. In marathon they are on a come now, but I'm not sure if it's Oceanside or golf side. Actually Florida bay. I think they are on the Florida BaysideNot sure. In marathon they are on a come now, but I'm not sure if it's Oceanside or golf side. Actually Florida bay. I think they are on the Florida Bayside

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

I don't see that here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/082100.shtml

 


The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

There's explicitly a tick up to 160 MPH (Cat 5) at the 36-hour forecast point. However, that isn't (and shouldn't be interpreted as) "confirmation" that it "will" be a Cat 5 at landfall. The potential is there, certainly, but it all hinges on time spent very near/over Cuba.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

That is looking at the 700-850mb steering layer for weak tropical storms. Take a look at the 200 to 700mb steering layer for storms under 940mb, such as Irma:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=

Well I'll be a noob - that makes a lot more sense!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

There's explicitly a tick up to 160 MPH (Cat 5) at the 36-hour forecast point. However, that isn't (and shouldn't be interpreted as) "confirmation" that it "will" be a Cat 5 at landfall. The potential is there, certainly, but it all hinges on time spent very near/over Cuba.

I understand this I was responding to the guy who said CNN confirmed this with the NWS. Which the NWS never "officially" stated on landfall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NHC has it as a category 5 at the 2 AM Sunday position, and a 145 mph category 4 at the 2 PM Sunday position.  So it's pretty clear they are thinking category 4 on the mainland.  What's not as clear is what they think about the landfall on the Keys, since it's between data points.

214634_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.0d399423312facea6af5635690f1315e.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Casualbrain said:

Well I'll be a noob - that makes a lot more sense!

 

Please forgive the noob question, but doesn't the nearly N/S orientation of the steering current in the last frame mean that the influence on Irma right now is trying to pull or push her nearly north at this point?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This might be slightly off topic, but I am studying the storm surge for Broward county. I have found a SERT map that is county wide, but I am looking to zoom in closer and see particular areas near the beach. 

Having issues locating such a map. We have property in Broward, two blocks west of the water. Would really appreciate any help.

http://en-us.topographic-map.com/places/Miami-7034739/  you can scroll around everywhere

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

I don't see that here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/082100.shtml

 


The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

Thanks. CNN banner says "Irma to hit south Florida as Category 5 storm". Ugh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Why does this happen?

I do not know but would guess it has to do air pressure, aerodynamics, and turbulence.  As air, which does have density, piles up against an obstruction (island) then there is resistance.  These storms don't really have momentum, they flow to the area of least resistance so, they move away from the resistance.........my guess anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Thanks. CNN banner says "Irma to hit south Florida as Category 5 storm". Ugh.

This isn't even a big deal... whether it ends up being a high-end cat 4 or cat 5, who cares? Either way a historic, and memorable storm is <48 hours away from making landfall in the U.S.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Scott Cook said:

Please forgive the noob question, but doesn't the nearly N/S orientation of the steering current in the last frame mean that the influence on Irma right now is trying to pull or push her nearly north at this point?

There is a lag between steering currents and storms, but yes - generally the storm will ride the river of winds at steering levels.  The mistake I made is that different atmospheric levels/currents have different effects on varying storm degrees.  The Jet Stream level is the only wind current level strong enough to impact Irma's direction (400-200mb level).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, StormFollowerUSA said:

Can someone answer this?. When was (if ever) the last time two back to back Major Hurricanes made Landfall in the United States as Catagory 3 or greater storm? 

Two consecutive Cat 4s has never happened in records going back to 1851.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • jburns unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...