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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


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15 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

This is probably going to sound dumb, but how will the storm curling around the bottom of the peninsula impact surge? I know with Katrina and Ike they plowed across the gulf, and because of that built up a massive surge in the process. 

 

In this case, if Irma were to hit the east coast of Florida directly I'd imagine the impact would be similar, but since it is going to shoot the gap potentially and turn north, would that dissipate the surge, as in the "tsunami" we had with Katrina will dissipate when it curves north?

I just touched on this..

With the west trend, the effects of surge destruction grows for Key West and the western peninsula. Irma's modeled forward motion combined with the shape of the Cuban coastline forces sea level rise into the Florida Straits and trench first from all points east. Keep in mind, surge threat was always going to be great given the extensive size of Irma's circulation regardless of the exact landfall position with respect to S. Florida. But when you allow for the large core to come from more southeasterly position across the straits and add a further western component, the right angle turn devestates Key West and points north up the SW Florida coastline. The RFQ flow will focus all that extreme sea level height in the straits from greater depth right across the shallow shelf. That excessive surge has to spread out engulfing the islands. Furthermore, any further westward component adds time for Irma to remain over high SSTs and make landfall while intensifying versus just maintaining a steady state. That will only add to push surge further inland in SW Florida with RFQ onshore flow against the SW coastline. The surge experiences in areas from Naples to Port Charlotte will be beyond anything seen in historical record-keeping for those locations.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

ULL is racing, but it's in AK and the Irma is about a few hours from LF. Don't think it is going to make it in time. 

If it does miss the ULL, will that mean NNE track? Not sure what other factors would be in play by then.

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16 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Absolutely....I should have added "in the deeper tropics"....These W or WNW movers, at intensities at or above CAT 3, and then, subsequently modeled to turn earlier than verification seem to display a characteristic that proves the models to have a "too early turn" bias....Maybe it is just a small sample size, but I'm pretty sure it is there....

Gilbert (Cat 5) also failed to make a predicted turn prior to landfall, so it hit Mexico instead of Texas. That's a storm I chased in 1988.

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6 minutes ago, Suncat said:

If it does miss the ULL, will that mean NNE track? Not sure what other factors would be in play by then.

It will interact with the ULL late, but it will mean a more western track. Maybe a strike on the panhandle? It's out of the question. But I think those in SC, NC, and GA can breathe a sigh of relief on a decreasing chance of a second landfall. 

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15 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

ULL is racing, but it's in AK and the Irma is about a few hours from LF. Don't think it is going to make it in time. 

The HWRF doesn't have Irma hitting the coast of Cuba for another 9 hours...so maybe she slows down as she feels the ULL before she makes the turn? It looks like she rides the coast for another 18 hours.

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42 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

This is probably going to sound dumb, but how will the storm curling around the bottom of the peninsula impact surge? I know with Katrina and Ike they plowed across the gulf, and because of that built up a massive surge in the process. 

 

In this case, if Irma were to hit the east coast of Florida directly I'd imagine the impact would be similar, but since it is going to shoot the gap potentially and turn north, would that dissipate the surge, as in the "tsunami" we had with Katrina will dissipate when it curves north?

The reef around the keys will disrupt the surge that Irma has been carrying along with it. Not sure how much time it will have to build up additional surge when it gets back open over water.

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1 hour ago, Crazy4Wx said:

According to this run Key West is either in the eye or eye wall for 6-8 hours. At 160 mph winds...I doubt many structures can survive that.

 My sister and her family just evacuated marathon. They have a brand new prefab house rated to 200 mph. It is on cement blocks stilts. I think it will survive the wind and hopefully the storm surge. I'm concerned about something bumping into it. Ironically she evacuated to Bonita which is now in the path of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure.of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure.

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

 My sister and her family just evacuated marathon. They have a brand new prefab house rated to 200 mph. It is on cement blocks stilts. I think it will survive the wind and hopefully the storm surge. I'm concerned about something bumping into it. Ironically she evacuated to Bonita which is now in the path of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure.of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure.

Do they live on the Ocean side or the Gulf side?

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

 My sister and her family just evacuated marathon. They have a brand new prefab house rated to 200 mph. It is on cement blocks stilts. I think it will survive the wind and hopefully the storm surge. I'm concerned about something bumping into it. Ironically she evacuated to Bonita which is now in the path of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure.of the eye wall. But fortunately they are off the beach and in a very strong structure.

My best friends buddy is in Key West and is planning on riding it out. He is a concrete "hurricane safe" hotel.

I told him to plan for the worst night of his life and to make sure he wasn't on the ground floor.

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14 minutes ago, Amped said:

Huge eye is ready to pop out on goes16.

Indeed.  We've been seeing the nice new eyewall on Cuban radar all day, but the core presentation has remained a bit messy on satellite.  Just in the last hour, Irma has managed to throw up a solid cold ring around the new eye, so we may finally see it clear out over the coming hours.

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1 minute ago, Casualbrain said:

Steering Currents still have not grabbed Irma - hopefully will overnight

That is looking at the 700-850mb steering layer for weak tropical storms. Take a look at the 200 to 700mb steering layer for storms under 940mb, such as Irma:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=

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This might be slightly off topic, but I am studying the storm surge for Broward county. I have found a SERT map that is county wide, but I am looking to zoom in closer and see particular areas near the beach. 

Having issues locating such a map. We have property in Broward, two blocks west of the water. Would really appreciate any help.

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