Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[adiabatic13]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as the run-to-run consistency has improved (0z vs. 12z) and the spread has narrowed, one can also see a lot of uncertainty as it relates to whether Irma will make landfall on Cuba. Around 50% of the ensemble members show Cuba landfall. Around 50% don't. The implications for Florida are potentially large, so there's still plenty of uncertainty.

84% of 12z Euro Ens depict a Cuba landfall, of those, 50%, or 41% of the total, spend >12 hrs traversing Cuba, make of that what you will

[LandofLincoln]

Aside from the movement, how is the inner core organizing itself?

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, LandofLincoln said:

Aside from the movement, how is the inner core organizing itself?

Appears to have ingested some dry air or the mountainous region has messed with the core a little to the left of the lfq

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

To illustrate:

Yea, side by side comparison shows this clearly actually. The eye is already significantly further north than where the Euro had landfall. 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-avn-short.html

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

It has to go due West NOW for that to verify.  

No, its already further north than where the Euro depicts landfall. But on the Cuban radar site, the final frame looks to be a wobble SW

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Correct, that's exactly what the EC showed her doing, starting about now. That's why we will be finding out very soon whether it was right.

Those cays are going to take a real pounding in either case.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-tc-24-1-100

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, psv88 said:

No, its already further north than where the Euro depicts landfall. But on the Cuban radar site, the final frame looks to be a wobble SW

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

I was just about to post it appears it started moving west again.  I noticed it on the satellite about 30 minutes ago but wasn't sure.  I'm marginally more convinced on the radar now 

[Dosh]

NAM makes landfall at Islamorada, then heads due north. Roughly 20-25mi east of 12Z and turns at a higher latitude

[toller65]

Good look at recent movement on the vis sat  

 

[Quincy]

Regardless of the exact track, expect the potential for tornadoes to increase dramatically across southeastern Florida tomorrow evening as outer bands come onshore. 18z 3km NAM:

[McQuackleton]

2 minutes ago, toller65 said:

Good look at recent movement on the vis sat  

 

You can definitely see the wobble NW. So I'll assume the NHC will go back from a W movement to WNW movement at the 5pm update.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

7 minutes ago, Dosh said:

NAM makes landfall at Islamorada, then heads due north. Roughly 20-25mi east of 12Z and turns at a higher latitude

The trough is a bit stronger at h5 which allows it to move a bit more NW resulting in a more eastern solution. 

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said:

84% of 12z Euro Ens depict a Cuba landfall, of those, 50%, or 41% of the total, spend >12 hrs traversing Cuba, make of that what you will

Thanks for this info. One couldn't see this from the chart that had been posted earlier. This is encouraging news, at least for FL.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks for this info. One couldn't see this from the chart that had been posted earlier. This is encouraging news, at least for FL.

You also have to remember even if it does make landfall in Cuba, it won't be over the mountainous part and the models show it gaining strength back prior to DO landfall

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

You also have to remember even if it does make landfall in Cuba, it won't be over the mountainous part and the models show it gaining strength back prior to DO landfall

Absolutely. Given 48-hour errors, among other factors, one can only have a degree of cautious optimism. Perhaps by tomorrow we'll begin to have a much better idea barring any unexpected changes in the guidance overnight.

[KPITSnow]

3 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

Considering most of those euro solutions are already off the table I'm not so sure.


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I don't think I would say the euro solutions are off the table? If it starts tracking west right now it will still make a Cuba landfall.

[MattPetrulli]

5PM advisory out, 155 MPH/925 MB. W at 12 MPH.

[McQuackleton]

5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 8
Location: 22.1°N 76.5°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 925 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph

 

Slowed down by 2mph.

[Hoosier]

Too many posts about wobbles when the center is not that close to Cuba yet.  Focus on movement over longer period rather than frame by frame.  Wobbles will carry more weight as Irma gets very close to the Cuba coast.

[Superstorm93]

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N  81.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.

 

Expected to become a Cat 5 before landfall  

[Indystorm]

Generally don't hurricanes slow down before they make a turn or curve?  Irma is slowing its forward speed somewhat.

[anemone]

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Definitely not going to be Cat 5 at landfall. Look at the NW side of the storm, an entire region is collapsed. This is what will wrap around the storm when it hits Florida.

5pm update says it will restrengthen to Cat5 before landfall.

[Tatamy]

Live weather radar from Cuba

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

 

[Crazy4Wx]

NHC doesn't think Cuba hurts Irma at all. They go a little west but really don't know the exact time it is going to make the turn north. Tough forecast 

[NavarreDon]

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has
slowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at
about 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the
next 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of
Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma
should reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin
to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida
peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and
that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact
track of the center. This afternoon's NHC forecast was again
adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF
model and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU
Superensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.

[Rjay]

Less talk of chemtrails and geoengineering please.  Thanks in advance.  

[MattPetrulli]

When's the last time the NHC forecasted a category 5 landfall in the United States?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

When's the last time the NHC forecasted a category 5 landfall in the United States?

Katrina.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

When's the last time the NHC forecasted a category 5 landfall in the United States?

IIRC, a Katrina forecast had it as a Cat 5 making landfall, but as we all know it weakened just before landfall.

[Hoosier]

The new NHC forecast does have restrengthening into a category 5 south of the Keys, but per the discussion it seems like that is not what they are forecasting at landfall in the mainland.  In any event, if we are talking about a 150 mph storm vs a 160 mph storm, there is not much of a difference other than what shows up in the record books.