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Hurricane Jose


downeastnc

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9/10/17 @ 1:45 PM: Check in on Hurricane Jose...
Jose is still a Category 4 hurricane, and is moving NW to the east of the Bahamas. Due to unique atmospheric steering winds, Jose will meander and make a loop this week. Much uncertainty remains in Jose's forecast into next weekend, but we should keep and eye on him. Check back for further updates!

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These were questions I asked on Friday morning. "Here is the novice dumb question of the morning. If the Bermuda high is strong enough to keep Irma moving west, why is it not pushing Jose in the same direction? How can Jose make the turn north so much sooner than Irma?"

I'm thinking the questions are still applicable. It looks like that high is still blocking Jose too, right? 

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There is little change to the overall forecast philosophy,
as Jose completes a slow anticyclonic loop over open waters for the
next 72 hours. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a
mid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in
24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and north of Jose
between days 3 and 4. The guidance initially showed this would be a
rather tight loop, but has opened it up considerably in the past
few runs with the GFS and consensus models beginning to lean toward
the ECMWF idea. Have adjusted the forecast track to be closer to
the TVCN. By days 4 and 5, Jose should track toward the west-
northwest with a bit faster forward motion as the aforementioned
mid-level high strengthens to the northeast of Jose.
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My biggest question is will Jose actually survive the loop it's going to try to make? If it does, it could slide up the coast but I'm still not sure it will actually survive. GFS and EURO differ greatly on the strength of Jose basically the entire time.

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RAH discussion this afternoon...

It's important to note that Hurricane Jose will be of interest in 
this time frame with the system likely making its closest approach 
to NC around Monday. The 12Z runs of the deterministic GFS and ECMWF 
generally lie on the western edge of the most recent ensemble runs 
although its worth noting that the 12Z GEFS shifted west a good bit. 
Still no reason to get too worried but its worth watching, as a 
coastal scraper is possible. -Blaes
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For some reason, I really like RAH using the term 'coastal scrapper'. I understand it's a technical discussion, but sometimes hearing a layman's term here and there is refreshing. I'd wager most tropical cyclones that effect NC are coastal scrappers that never make landfall, but come just close enough to make us keep an eye on him.

Anyway, we'd better keep an eye on Jose. B)

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6 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Since the Ukie is on an island by itself, I see why everyone would expect it to go out to sea!

The thing is the UKMET showed into Cuba to Florida from a week away with Irmawhile all the other models showed east of Florida into North Carolina and we all know which model nearly verified so looking at things I feel the current motion is more in line with the UKMET than any of the other models so it's going to be a long week

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9 hours ago, avalanche said:

Local mets here aren't worried about Jose affecting anyone in NC. Of course, they said Irma could bring some showers to the eastern facing outer banks, and I think it turned out to give them a little more than that. So, grain of salt taken.

There wasnt much rain at all from Irma in the OBX, Down south on the Crystal Coast /Wilmington, def had rain but not the OBX

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8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Since the Ukie is on an island by itself, I see why everyone would expect it to go out to sea!

GFS shifted back west a couple hundred miles, models usually handle loops poorly....so I wouldnt look at the models to close until Thursday once the storm starts to head west.....still it doesnt look like a threat outside of the UKIE. 

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 Confidence in Jose`s track further
decreases this weekend as a result of uncertainty in the evolution
of Irma`s de-amplifying mid-level remnants progressing toward the
Mid-Atlantic coast. As a result, 00Z GFS/ECMWF guidance diverge
significantly w/regard to Jose`s track this weekend and early next
week. The GFS suggests a meandering track close to the NC/DELMARVA
coast while the ECMWF suggests a track much further to the east,
near Bermuda. At this time will continue to follow the official NHC
track, with Jose tracking well offshore the Carolina coast. -Vincent
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