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Tropical Storm Jose


NortheastPAWx

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1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Whats the climatology numbers if it makes it to this  predicted position on Saturday?  

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150543.shtml?tswind120#contents

 

 

I accidentally quoted the reply to your message. The relevant information can be found here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50244-hurricane-jose/?do=findComment&comment=4623879

 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

It wouldn't be that bad given it's a compact storm with a small core, always has been. Let's not over analyze this.

Not over analyzing anything but there would 100% be a moderate storm surge into the NY Bight and LI south shore with that track. But it's meaningless. Way too far.

Ukmet is into Florida in only a few days.

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2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

your assuming the storm won't grow in size... or it won't become extra tropical

Winds fields always increase with latitude it's just a fact. If you can get some sandy-esk baroclynic deepening then you have a serious situation. That track has been and always will be the worst case storm surge scenario for the ny bight 

 

chance of verfication... .01% there is a reason sandy was and still is a 600 year storm

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Winds fields always increase with latitude it's just a fact. If you can get some sandy-esk baroclynic deepening then you have a serious situation. That track has been and always will be the worst case storm surge scenario for the ny bight 

 

chance of verfication... .01% there is a reason sandy was and still is a 600 year storm

Perhaps but the setup presented at H5 is nothing like Sandy and the end result is a decaying tropical cyclone due to slow forward speed and not a rapid phase and acceleration of baroclinic processes. High pressure directed TC into NJ, never happened. 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, maybe but I don't trust old data.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1903_New_Jersey_hurricane

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10 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Perhaps but the setup presented at H5 is nothing like Sandy and the end result is a decaying tropical cyclone due to slow forward speed and not a rapid phase and acceleration of baroclinic processes. High pressure directed TC into NJ, never happened. 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, maybe but I don't trust old data.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1903_New_Jersey_hurricane

Your correct about H5 I should have clarified. I was looking more at the end result then how we got there. If this thing stays purely tropical it will rapidly decay after leaving the Gulf Stream. Shelf waters here are below normal for this time of year which further effects the outcome. They are normally dissrupitive enough but the cool start to the month and allot of upwelling from days of strong offshore flow has really knocked down temps 

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I consider all  "X-hundred year" for storms, floods, etc. extremely dubious at their root, and even the ones that are accurate are completely misinterpreted by the public/media in terms of probability, which has  gotten 10x worse in the last decade for political argumentation purposes. 

I strongly suspect Sandy-like storms are far more common than an average 600 year recurrence interval.

There is also a dynamic where if you put tight enough geographic constraints on a system you can make it seem impossibly unlikely. The specific 10 mile stretch of Texas Beach hit by Harvey, I'm sure, has a very long recurrence interval for Cat 4 landfalls and I am sure Houston has a long recurrence interval for flooding that bad. However, the recurrence interval for "Somewhere in the GOM" landfalls and then massive floods is much, much less. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

I consider all  "X-hundred year" for storms, floods, etc. extremely dubious at their root, and even the ones that are accurate are completely misinterpreted by the public/media in terms of probability, which has  gotten 10x worse in the last decade for political argumentation purposes. 

I strongly suspect Sandy-like storms are far more common than an average 600 year recurrence interval.

There is also a dynamic where if you put tight enough geographic constraints on a system you can make it seem impossibly unlikely. The specific 10 mile stretch of Texas Beach hit by Harvey, I'm sure, has a very long recurrence interval for Cat 4 landfalls and I am sure Houston has a long recurrence interval for flooding that bad. However, the recurrence interval for "Somewhere in the GOM" landfalls and then massive floods is much, much less. 

 

 

I agree 100%.    Nice post.

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30 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

I consider all  "X-hundred year" for storms, floods, etc. extremely dubious at their root, and even the ones that are accurate are completely misinterpreted by the public/media in terms of probability, which has  gotten 10x worse in the last decade for political argumentation purposes. 

I strongly suspect Sandy-like storms are far more common than an average 600 year recurrence interval.

There is also a dynamic where if you put tight enough geographic constraints on a system you can make it seem impossibly unlikely. The specific 10 mile stretch of Texas Beach hit by Harvey, I'm sure, has a very long recurrence interval for Cat 4 landfalls and I am sure Houston has a long recurrence interval for flooding that bad. However, the recurrence interval for "Somewhere in the GOM" landfalls and then massive floods is much, much less. 

 

 

I agree. A big things aren't what the used to be caveat should be used here. 

The Juan into jersey as it is portrayed still seems much more likely then Sandy however. 600 years? Who knows. But it was a pretty damn extreme event for multiple reasons. All the good luck Florida just had during Irma went the opposite way in ny and nj during sandy 

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I don't know about likely. There's not a lot of ensemble support.

Both the Euro and GFS indicate a strong shear axis to the Southwest of Bermuda which further complicates the intensity forecast. Obviously the further Southeast the track, the closer to the stronger shear. 

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