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NortheastPAWx

Tropical Storm Jose

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2 hours ago, larrye said:

Speculation on how/why Jose managed to become a Cat 4 while right behind Irma? I would have thought that "traditionally", we would not expect a Tropical System right behind another to develop into another strong one due to upwelling?

The 27C layer extends down to absurd depths, pushing 300 feet in some locations.

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4 hours ago, larrye said:

Speculation on how/why Jose managed to become a Cat 4 while right behind Irma? I would have thought that "traditionally", we would not expect a Tropical System right behind another to develop into another strong one due to upwelling?

Keep in mind, Irma and Jose used different paths to reach this point east of the northern islands.  Irma came from the ene while Jose came from the ese.  Until today, Jose has traversed untouched water.

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Jose better start gaining some latitude soon or it's going to making a very close pass to Barbuda. Solid looking cane. Surprised it's not a cat 5 to be honest. Even NHC says they might be conservative.

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Jose better start gaining some latitude soon or it's going to making a very close pass to Barbuda. Solid looking cane. Surprised it's not a cat 5 to be honest. Even NHC says they might be conservative.


Recon heading in shortly.

Latest MW image looks solid...

068fd7126d3299ec0068e32b301b0589.jpg

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Some of the long range models showing it just spinning like a top lol.  Am I crazy or reading these wrong?  GFS at very far out hours is throwing very odd tracks.

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Jose forcasted to do 8000 track loops. That should make up for all you poor tortured souls who didn't get to see Mathew do one last year.

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Yes. I just looked at the GFS and i suppose Jose should be watched. Will or might he come farther west and impact the eastern US coastline? Probably not likely, but I guess it's safe to say at this point, who knows...

 

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20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There needs to be something that can pull Jose towards the coast otherwise he'll easily go OTS after making the loop. 

That can't be properly forecast right now.

The H5 wavelengths are starting to get nutty as we get deeper into meteorological Fall. Our placement is precarious, especially New England. We will not need much to see a scrape or landfall. ULL over the Ohio Valley would get the job done or a simple cold front with the WAR building west.

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Jose is chilling pretty close to the SE coast on the last 4 runs of the GFS as a cat 4. Today's 12z is also closer than previous runs.

Euro also has it passing a bit too close for comfort off OBX. Worth tracking for sure.

Jeanne redux? lol

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs hates the northeast for some reason. Insane 12z run.

10 days out, but I see that. As we've seen with Irma ... will change a thousand times between now and then.

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4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Haha I thought this was the banter thread.

Oh well, I guess we can lock it in.

Every model has it offshore except the CMC

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2002 Hurricane Kyle all over again? If you don't know that one, you should look up the track.

I just don't see how this thing doesn't get picked up and taken out if it is sitting around in the area for days and days.

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Can someone here explain this for 9/18 timeframe. Or is this just clickbait - I know it's too early to even talk about but is this a possibility? Is the GFS only model showing this?




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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35 minutes ago, Snowberd said:

Can someone here explain this for 9/18 timeframe. Or is this just clickbait - I know it's too early to even talk about but is this a possibility? Is the GFS only model showing this?
 

 

 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

Gfs , gefs , jma , euro

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1 hour ago, Snowberd said:

Can someone here explain this for 9/18 timeframe. Or is this just clickbait - I know it's too early to even talk about but is this a possibility? Is the GFS only model showing this?
 

 

 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

It's possible in that it's physically possible, sure, but at 10 days out that graphic is basically weather fan-fiction. It's meaningless. 

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00z gfs at 198 were getting a strong breeze with high surf already Wind field is big. Should hook into coast again soon 

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