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NortheastPAWx

Tropical Storm Jose

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26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That's not for the coast, it's for the offshore waters

My point and click forecast says Tropical Storm Conditions possible now for late Tuesday. So I assume a watch will be up for Long Island soon. 

Also, some nice breakers coming in today, some to 5-6 feet. And the high tide is making it pretty far up the beach already. There'll be some coastal flooding if models like the Euro are right. 

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I know it's a little confusing because the watches for the waters came first. But if you're ever not sure, just click on the Public Advisory on the NHC website. Yes, there are currently "regular" TS Watches up from the DE coast to SE MA, including most of Long Island but excluding NYC.

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That's not for the coast, it's for the offshore waters

Incorrect, New Jersey coast, Delaware coast and Nassau and Suffolk counties Long Island are under a Ts watch. Additionally so is SE CT.
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Even with Jose likely to remain offshore, its expanding size suggests that tropical storm conditions may occur from the Jersey Shore on Long Island, coastal Connecticut out to southeastern Massachusetts. The South Shore of Long Island, all of Suffolk County, and southeastern New England (eastern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket are very likely to experience such conditions. 

The area that may experience tropical storm conditions will likely pick up 0.50" to 1.00" rain. The area at greatest risk of tropical storm conditions will probably see 1.00"-3.00" rain with some locally higher amounts. 
 

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1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I don't know why my post got deleted earlier I mentioned that the GFS is a miss for NYC and west and I don't agree with it I think the precipitation field expands as this tropical cyclone will become extra tropical by the time it reaches our latitude. Regardless the moderator 3 posted me for no reason here I don't get the hate. I get along with everybody and I don't post that much unless we have an impending snowstorm. Take a look at today's 12z GFS still plenty of wind though

IMG_0660.PNG

IMG_0661.PNG

It would seem that at least one professional forecaster agrees with you:

https://www.facebook.com/craigallenwx/posts/10155717439772720

An excerpt:

This is a little out of character for me since I'm usually the one who's too fast to dismiss storms, especially when everyone fawns over the Euro but if you've been following the EURO, UKMET, the Navy's stepchild NAVGEM and the JMA, you know they are much closer and DO come close to a US landfall, somewhere out towards Montauk to Cape Cod/Nantucket.

The EURO has been extremely consistent in a much closer call, slower to arrive and slower to leave. I will add that the EURO was the one that locked in on the west coast of Florida for Irma, rather than the east coast. It seems to handle the strength of the Atlantic and sub tropical ridges very well. These tropical systems are steered around the periphery of these ridges, looking for a weak spot or opening to sneak into it. THE GFS and to some extent, theh NAM (which really shouldn't be used for tropical forecasting anyway) always underplay the strength of the ridge and therefore turns storms to the right too fast.

One more point....ALL models are honing in on a very important aspect. Jose will be moving north into cooler waters. As I explained yesterday, this will tend to weaken him from a 90mph + storm now, to under hurricane status by the time he gets to our latitude. However, this will make his engine (the eye) sputter and this in turns allows the storm to weaken BUT also spread out over a larger distance since it s no longer tightly wound around the center. This would allow bands of wind and rain (squalls) to extend out over 100 miles from the center so that also leads me to believe that Tuesday, Tuesday night into Wednesday could get stormy for awhile, especially eastern sections.

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26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even with Jose likely to remain offshore, its expanding size suggests that tropical storm conditions may occur from the Jersey Shore on Long Island, coastal Connecticut out to southeastern Massachusetts. The South Shore of Long Island, all of Suffolk County, and southeastern New England (eastern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket are very likely to experience such conditions. 

The area that may experience tropical storm conditions will likely pick up 0.50" to 1.00" rain. The area at greatest risk of tropical storm conditions will probably see 1.00"-3.00" rain with some locally higher amounts. 
 

Don, if the Euro turns out to be correct, I've read that 2+ inches of rain are possible for NYC and Long Island and 40-60mph winds.

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, if the Euro turns out to be correct, I've read that 2+ inches of rain are possible for NYC and Long Island and 40-60mph winds.

The Euro would have a bigger impact. Let's see where things stand after the 0z guidance. It could well be right.

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Euro would have a bigger impact. Let's see where things stand after the 0z guidance. It could well be right.

Interesting thing about the Euro is that the winds would be stronger on Long Island than in Nantucket or Martha's Vineyard, because the storm would weaken quite a bit by the time it reaches their latitude.

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Doubt anyone sees a gust over 60 with this.  Some big waves otherwise mostly a non event

Don't be so quick to downplay wind impacts. If this evolves into a hybrid storm, with the block over NS, the pressure gradient over New England would be strong as the wind field expands. You don't have to have a phasing baroclinic monster to get 60 mph onshore winds along Nantucket, Cape Cod, Mass. It just has to drift into the right position. We've still got a ways to go. ECMWF could transition this a bit further north as we get closer to stall.

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

0Z hurricane models now showing the loop

 

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Some places are under Tropical Storm Watches

For the love of god, if you're going to post like this post an image. 

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

My point and click forecast says Tropical Storm Conditions possible now for late Tuesday. So I assume a watch will be up for Long Island soon. 

Also, some nice breakers coming in today, some to 5-6 feet. And the high tide is making it pretty far up the beach already. There'll be some coastal flooding if models like the Euro are right. 

It does look pretty good for some beach erosion Unfortunately John.

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1 hour ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

He does the same thing over at accuweather. Anyways here are the 0z hurricane models.

IMG_1694.PNG

He also does this at NJ Strong and at NYC Metro.  At least he is consistently useless. 

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Pretty quick collapse of his presentation on satellite tonight. My guess is we will have a naked swirl in the morning as all deep convection has died and or been blown away. Was not expecting him to look this poor until he was further up the coast.

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The 8am nonsensical advisory.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days, however, Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through
Tuesday.

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52 minutes ago, Morris said:

The 8am nonsensical advisory.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days, however, Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through
Tuesday.

Um, I tend to doubt that advisory language!

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1 hour ago, Morris said:

Jose no longer a hurricane per recon.

The satellite data indicates that Jose is now an extratropical cyclone (as seemed to be the case from Jose's degraded appearance). Jose is also heading north-northeastward right now.

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9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The satellite data indicates that Jose is now an extratropical cyclone (as seemed to be the case from Jose's degraded appearance). Jose is also heading north-northeastward right now.

Doesn't look like it's heading NNE yet.

Jose recon.PNG

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49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The satellite data indicates that Jose is now an extratropical cyclone (as seemed to be the case from Jose's degraded appearance). Jose is also heading north-northeastward right now.

With an extratropical storm, the wind and rain shield should grow as it heads north. I don't think it will be a really big deal for our area but we should just expect some rain and wind with more rain and wind out east and coastal New England.

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Never doubt the tropical models

This storm looks to be a normal noreaster for the coast ( More rain the further east you go )

As far as Maria goes, this is looking like a fish storm because Jose gets trapped under the ridge and doesn't have no where to go. When Jose rots and leaves, he leaves a weakness in the ridge. That causes Maria to go OTS. Can it change? Sure but we need Jose to lift out fast.

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