Tropical Storm Jose

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, apm said:

Doesn't look like it's heading NNE yet.

During the last 6 hours, Jose has been tracking at a 20° angle:

2 am: 32.6°N 71.6°W

5 am: 33.0°N 71.4°W

8 am: 33.5°N 71.2°W

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

With an extratropical storm, the wind and rain shield should grow as it heads north. I don't think it will be a really big deal for our area but we should just expect some rain and wind with more rain and wind out east and coastal New England.

I agree. I don't expect a large impact for the NYC area and nearby suburbs. Long Island's South Shore and especially Suffolk County continue to have the highest probability of seeing tropical storm conditions with 1"-3" rain. The 0z ECMWF has now come more in line with the other guidance in terms of impacts.

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Never doubt the tropical models

This storm looks to be a normal noreaster for the coast ( More rain the further east you go )

As far as Maria goes, this is looking like a fish storm because Jose gets trapped under the ridge and doesn't have no where to go. When Jose rots and leaves, he leaves a weakness in the ridge. That causes Maria to go OTS. Can it change? Sure but we need Jose to lift out fast.

That's why a truly serious impact from a tropical system in the Northeast U.S. is a rare phenomena...there's always something that seems to save the area from a truly big hit.  

 

Ofcourse, there is always the Rare exception where everything lines up, and something bigger gets through...but it is rare to say the least.  

[Superstorm93]

TXNT26 KNES 181203
TCSNTL

A.  12L (JOSE)

B.  18/1145Z

C.  33.4N

D.  71.1W

E.  ONE/GOES-E

F.  EXTRATROPICAL

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS JOSE BECOMES PURELY
TROPICAL AGAIN.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

 

11am should be the final advisory on Jose, barring any major changes. 

[Taylorsweather]

31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

During the last 6 hours, Jose has been tracking at a 340° angle:

2 am: 32.6°N 71.6°W

5 am: 33.0°N 71.4°W

8 am: 33.5°N 71.2°W

I think you meant 020 and not 340.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

I think you meant 020 and not 340.

I did.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

TXNT26 KNES 181203
TCSNTL

A.  12L (JOSE)

B.  18/1145Z

C.  33.4N

D.  71.1W

E.  ONE/GOES-E

F.  EXTRATROPICAL

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS JOSE BECOMES PURELY
TROPICAL AGAIN.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

 

11am should be the final advisory on Jose. 

So no more advisories on Jose after 11 am?  Does this mean the tropical storm watches will be dropped?

[Superstorm93]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So no more advisories on Jose after 11 am?  Does this mean the tropical storm watches will be dropped?

They might keep it, but satellite classifications are saying its no longer tropical. 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That's why a truly serious impact from a tropical system in the Northeast U.S. is a rare phenomena...there's always something that seems to save the area from a truly big hit.  

 

Ofcourse, there is always the Rare exception where everything lines up, and something bigger gets through...but it is rare to say the least.  

Yeah the period between 1938 and 1960 was exceptional because of all the big hits in that time.  Since then, it's a once a decade thing- 1976 Belle, 1985 Gloria, 1991 Bob,......nothing in the 00s......and then 2011 Irene and 2012 Sandy (although most would not consider Irene to be a "big" hit for coastal areas since it was a 65 mph tropical storm at landfall.)

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So no more advisories on Jose after 11 am?  Does this mean the tropical storm watches will be dropped?

They haven't updated the 11 am advisory for this yet.  Maybe they will put out an "A" shortly.  If they do drop the "tropical" designations, they could always replace with high wind warnings/wind advisories & a variety of flood statements to cover the conditions that could/would still develop.  I think we went through this with Sandy and there was all sorts of horrid public feedback regarding what was essentially technical/scientific criteria that went along with how the storm was designated, but either way, there was still similar destructive impacts regardless of what it was called.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

They haven't updated the 11 am advisory for this yet.  Maybe they will put out an "A" shortly.  If they do drop the "tropical" designations, they could always replace with high wind warnings/wind advisories & a variety of flood statements to cover the conditions that could/would still develop.  I think we went through this with Sandy and there was all sorts of horrid public feedback regarding what was essentially technical/scientific criteria that went along with how the storm was designated, but either way, there was still similar destructive impacts regardless of what it was called.

Yes, for some reason the public wants to take actual "hurricanes" more seriously than winds of hurricane force (hurricane wind warnings) even though the impacts are essentially the same, no matter the structure of the storm you still get the 75 mph + winds and high storm surge.  The other issue was that the insurance industry didn't cover "hurricane force wind warning" storms the same way they cover actual hurricanes.  That needs to change.

 

[yoda]

18 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

They might keep it, but satellite classifications are saying its no longer tropical. 

Disco says day 3 before going post-trop

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Satellite images indicate that Jose is losing some tropical
characteristics.  The cloud pattern of the hurricane is asymmetric
with much of the central convection and convective bands confined to
the north of the center.  The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
have found that Jose is weaker, with maximum flight-level winds of
78 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 58 kt observed.  Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt.

Jose should remain over warm Gulf Stream waters during the next 24
hours, but it will also be in an environment of strong
south-southwesterly shear, so little change in strength is expected
during that time.  Shortly thereafter, the hurricane is forecast to
cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a
progressively drier air mass.  These unfavorable conditions should
cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition,
which is now expected to be complete by day 3.  The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term
to account for the slightly lower initial wind speed.

The hurricane has been wobbling around, but the general motion has
been northward at 8 kt.  A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic
should continue to steer Jose northward at about the same forward
speed during the next day or two.  Thereafter, a trough currently
over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in
the 2 to 3 day time frame.  The trough is then expected to lift out,
leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to
drift southward by the end of the forecast period.  Only minor
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this
prediction lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm
warning has been issued for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from
Delaware to southern New England, where a tropical storm watch is in
effect.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast
Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the
risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the
left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread
rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and
New Jersey.  If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban
flash flooding and some river flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 33.9N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 35.1N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 36.7N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 38.2N  70.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 39.4N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 40.0N  67.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  22/1200Z 39.1N  68.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  23/1200Z 38.5N  68.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[TheManWithNoFace]

RGEM keeps the northern mid-Atlantic dry. Probably has some application here as Jose' is in some state of post-trop transition.

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFS is hysterical.  Goes from  977mb down to 953mb. 

[Big Jims Videos]

Waves look to have actually decreased in size at the Manasquan beach this morning-just got back from there for work.  

[nj2va]

At Salvo, Hatteras Island for the week. High surf advisory til Tuesday. Wind advisory tonight for gusts to 50.

[MJO812]

2pm update

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Waves look to have actually decreased in size at the Manasquan beach this morning-just got back from there for work.  

It wasn't just your perspective it did. Yesterday afternoon there were solid 8 foot faces on Long Island. Today was more like 4-6'.

Very very strange. If you had said to me yesterday today would be smaller I would have said your wrong and nuts. Odd storm. I have never seen a swell drop as a storm is moving twords us still. In fact with the wind field increasing despite lessening of the core winds it should be a more efficient swell producer as fetch has a larger impact then intensity when it comes to swell generation!!!!

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It wasn't just your perspective it did. Yesterday afternoon there were solid 8 foot faces on Long Island. Today was more like 4-6'.

Very very strange. If you had said to me yesterday today would be smaller I would have said your wrong and nuts. Odd storm. I have never seen a swell drop as a storm is moving twords us still. In fact with the wind field increasing despite lessening of the core winds it should be a more efficient swell producer as fetch has a larger impact then intensity when it comes to swell generation!!!!

different swells , its picking up here now. What  a month

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

different swells , its picking up here now. What  a month

With Maria on the way it's shaping up to be the best September of pretty much anyone alive and surfings life. 

Tomorow is day 13 in a row of at least 3' at a minimum of 10 second periods. 

That in its self is nearly record breaking. Throw in another week and potentially more and we are talking unprecedented. 

[apm]

Just  took a decent wobble west with the pressure down to 972 MB....  

[NJwx85]

WV loop shows the trough starting to take on a more neutral tilt as the dry air over NJ retrogrades back West.

[Big Jims Videos]

Some photos of the surf this morning around Manasquan Inlet 

[yoda]

23 hours ago, Superstorm93 said:

TXNT26 KNES 181203
TCSNTL

A.  12L (JOSE)

B.  18/1145Z

C.  33.4N

D.  71.1W

E.  ONE/GOES-E

F.  EXTRATROPICAL

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS JOSE BECOMES PURELY
TROPICAL AGAIN.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

 

11am should be the final advisory on Jose, barring any major changes. 

Still a tropical cyclone lol

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Satellite images indicate that a small area of deep convection is
persisting near the center of Jose.  While it doesn't look
particularly tropical at the moment, there is no evidence of fronts
connected to the center and the system is definitely warm core.
Thus, Jose will stay a tropical cyclone.  

[apm]

Still ticking NW.....

[Ginx snewx]

17 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

With Maria on the way it's shaping up to be the best September of pretty much anyone alive and surfings life. 

Tomorow is day 13 in a row of at least 3' at a minimum of 10 second periods. 

That in its self is nearly record breaking. Throw in another week and potentially more and we are talking unprecedented. 

Lots of chop today but sets are getting bigger Narragansett RI

[NJwx85]

It actually looks like convection is attempting to wrap back around the Southern semi-circle.

[Juliancolton]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It actually looks like convection is attempting to wrap back around the Southern semi-circle.

Pretty classic subtrop signature there.

[Bluescat1]

Is that convective flair up interaction with the Gulf stream?

[Chinook]

Here is kind of a beautiful visible image of hurricane Jose. This is not super well organized, and it has spent much of the last 24 hrs appearing as a comma-shaped mid-latitude storm, but it is still tropical. The hurricane hunters have found a couple of spots of 65 kt winds aloft, and it's not really in an eyewall, because there is no eyewall