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Tropical Storm Jose


NortheastPAWx

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At 11 pm, Jose remained on a track that would likely result in its remaining off shore. Its 11 pm position was 29.2°N 71.8°W.

The ECMWF ensembles represent perhaps the best assessment of Jose’s risk of landfall. The implied probability of landfall shown on the EPS falls between the low probability on the GEFS and modest probability suggested by historic climatology. 

Thus far, climatology has proved to be a stabilizing element. It has helped prevent ideas from swinging fairly dramatically from one solution to another during the period of greatest uncertainty concerning Jose’s future track. At no time has historic climatology suggested a 50% or greater probability of U.S. landfall. In addition, it consistently argued that no landfall altogether was somewhat more likely than any landfall (U.S. or Canadian). Nevertheless, some uncertainty persists. There remains a possibility that Jose will experience another anti-cyclonic loop.

Forecast rainfall amounts are as follows (9/16 12z ECMWF):

Atlantic City: 0.10”
Boston: 1.44”
Bridgeport: 0.62”
Hartford: 0.83”
Islip: 0.82”
Nantucket: 4.03”
New York City: 
…JFK: 0.50”
…LGA:0.39”
…NYC: 0.34”
Newark: 0.31”
Plymouth: 2.51”
Portland: 0.35”
Providence: 1.88”
Westhampton: 1.15”
White Plains: 0.34”
 

LFClimo09162017.jpg

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Does anyone with Joaquin whether it was the globals or the hurricane models that totally blew it?  I want to say it was the globals.

Every model has shifted west tonight but the Euro and Ukie really shifted west. Curious to see if the hurricane models start shifting west.

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Does anyone with Joaquin whether it was the globals or the hurricane models that totally blew it?  I want to say it was the globals.

Euro nailed Joaquin when others wanted to send it back towards the coast. 

On satellite there's been a significant westward expansion, Ukie and Euro could be on to something. 

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Just now, Snow88 said:

976 is a dying noreaster?

The shear is brutal.  I cannot see this being any worse than a noreaster type event.  Especially on the west side.  I think NHC is going to start playing up the weakening on the 5am and 11am discussions to cover themselves if the track shifts west.  I don't see them making any major track adjustment for another 24-30 hours unless the HURR models move west.

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The ECMWF stalls Jose for so long that it begins to fill the 500 mb vort and raise heights. I don't ever recall that occurring with a tropical system right off the Mid-Atlantic coast. What a massive block.

 

Wow, the entire mid-level vort gets smashed and dissipates. Full scale ridge fills and expands over the entire Mid-Atlantic. Meteorological nerding out to the max even if this is out in fantasy land and doesn't resolve IRL.


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15 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The ECMWF stalls Jose for so long that it begins to fill the 500 mb vort and raise heights. I don't ever recall that occurring with a tropical system right off the Mid-Atlantic coast. What a massive block.

 

Wow, the entire mid-level vort gets smashed and dissipates. Full scale ridge fills and expands over the entire Mid-Atlantic. Meteorological nerding out to the max even if this is out in fantasy land and doesn't resolve IRL.

 

That ridge filling in brings Maria in NC on a Fran track as well. HUGE implications on the future impacts Maria might have depending on what Jose does in the end.

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