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Tropical Storm Jose

NortheastPAWx

By NortheastPAWx,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

lol @ 90-95 mph gusts

what a garbage storm

big difference between how that affects Florida and NY (how would a Mag 6-7 earthquake effect Fla vs Ca?)- no power for me for 25 hours and I was one of the lucky ones, some people didn't have power for weeks or months.  Also the surge was close to 10 ft here in western Long Island and up to 17-20 feet in NYC, that's a much higher surge than one would expect with those winds. 

 

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bigtenfan

bigtenfan

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, winterymix said:

I'm no expert for marine forecasting but it seems likely to me that cruise ships off the coasts of mid-Atlantic and off of the coasts of New England

are going to modify their plotted courses as a function of avoiding choppy seas secondary to Jose.

Thank you so much

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bigtenfan

bigtenfan

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, kdennis78 said:

I don't know if this helps you, but here's the end of the most recent Forecast Discussion from the Mt. Holly/Philadelphia office regarding marine conditions in the NJ/DE area:

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through Thursday. Patchy fog possible
tonight. Otherwise, leftover showers should end this evening.
Long period 3-4 foot se swells continue on the Atlantic waters.

OUTLOOK...
Thursday night-Friday night...Generally sub Small Craft
Advisory conditions expected. Seas forecast to be 3-4 feet.

Saturday-Monday...Conditions may reach Small Craft Advisory
levels as seas may build to 5 feet. Sct afternoon showers.

Rip Currents...
This evening...Moderate except added HIGH risk of RC to 3 NJ
counties for the remainder of this afternoon...our calculator
has no more than moderate risk but a report of lifeguard concern
prompted the issuance.

Thursday: Moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents. Long- period (10-14 sec) southeasterly swells from
Hurricane Jose continue.

Looking ahead...a low or moderate risk is expected Friday then
larger longer period swells from tropical cyclone Jose should
arrives this weekend and we expect moderate or high risk days
from Saturday through at least next Tuesday with swells building
to 5 to 6 feet and period lengthening to near 15 seconds. Even
surfers can suffer injury from wave slam and certainly swimmers
are asked to follow lifeguard and other official advice... and
in my opinion...in these upcoming conditions its not worth the
risk.

The link to the full discussion is here if you're interested. I hope you get to go and that you have a great time!

Thank you so much

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

How Is able to fly? Anything disrespectful to the Irma victims was getting deleted during the storm.

Long Beach had more damage then anywhere in the entire mainland of Florida and similar damage as the Keys. And that's just one of hundreds of examples.

Sandy dwarfs Irma in terms of impacts in the US.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Paragon said:

big difference between how that affects Florida and NY (how would a Mag 6-7 earthquake effect Fla vs Ca?)- no power for me for 25 hours and I was one of the lucky ones, some people didn't have power for weeks or months.  Also the surge was close to 10 ft here in western Long Island and up to 17-20 feet in NYC, that's a much higher surge than one would expect with those winds. 

 

The vast majority of Sandy's damage was from surge, not wind. Sandy would've been devastating in any surge prone area. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The vast majority of Sandy's damage was from surge, not wind. Sandy would've been devastating in any surge prone area. 

Also we mustn't forget that Sandy had the largest IKE of any Atlantic storm in history by a large margin- that is far more important than peak winds and is what caused the huge surge.  Plus 90-95 mph winds for over 12 hours- duration matters more.

 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The vast majority of Sandy's damage was from surge, not wind. Sandy would've been devastating in any surge prone area. 

Sandy also struck during an astronomically high tide. Most of the damage inland was due to falling trees and power lines. A tree fell and missed one of our engines by ten feet while we were out investigating downed power lines. The flash from the exploding transformers was reminiscent of what you might see from an approaching squall line on a warm summer night.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sandy also struck during an astronomically high tide. Most of the damage inland was due to falling trees and power lines. A tree fell and missed one of our engines by ten feet while we were out investigating downed power lines. The flash from the exploding transformers was reminiscent of what you might see from an approaching squall line on a warm summer night.

Honestly the only thing that was a "let down" with Sandy (if you can call it that lol) was only getting around an inch of rain.  Irene was more exciting in terms of rainfall.  One day I want to experience a 10-12" rainfall with 100mph winds- hopefully not in the near future though lol.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Honestly the only thing that was a "let down" with Sandy (if you can call it that lol) was only getting around an inch of rain.  Irene was more exciting in terms of rainfall.  One day I want to experience a 10-12" rainfall with 100mph winds- hopefully not in the near future though lol.

That's very typical of high latitude transitioning cyclones. North of the center was dry and windy, South was wet and calmer. If you remember the biggest story South of the LF point was the big snow in the Apps.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's very typical of high latitude transitioning cyclones. North of the center was dry and windy, South was wet and calmer. If you remember the biggest story South of the LF point was the big snow in the Apps.

Yes, I think West Virginia got over 20"!  I remember that was the first thing I saw on TV after my power came back on lol.  I notice that effect west and east of the center too- east of the center it's windier and west of the center it's rainier (Gloria, Bob, Floyd, Irene, etc.)

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Don, the center doesn't need to come ashore in order for this to be a damaging storm for the beaches. I think the probability of significant erosion and coastal flooding is increasing.

On that we agree. I think the large swells will result in beach erosion. Coastal flooding could occur especially with the coming new moon.

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NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

Posted
  • Author
Posted
42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's very typical of high latitude transitioning cyclones. North of the center was dry and windy, South was wet and calmer. If you remember the biggest story South of the LF point was the big snow in the Apps.

I was at Penn State when Sandy hit and we just missed that snow...was 40s and rain, though it snowed a bit that Tuesday. We had over 4" of rain.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

On that we agree. I think the large swells will result in beach erosion. Coastal flooding could occur especially with the coming new moon.

Don, how close does the center need to be in order to get significant rainfall and wind on the coast? 200 miles?

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

I was at Penn State when Sandy hit and we just missed that snow...was 40s and rain, though it snowed a bit that Tuesday. We had over 4" of rain.

We got ours a week later with the remnant block still in place, an 8 inch heavy snowfall a week after Sandy- our earliest heavy snowfall (only got 2" here in the Octosnowstorm a year earlier, but 20" and thundersnow at my place in the Poconos.)

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The only really interesting part of the Jose forecast is when it phases with the remnant Irma vort in a few days. I am not sure if we have seen a an active hurricane off the East Coast absorb a remnant hurricane vort before.

 

Sheared out remnant Irma vort currently over SE PA

ecmwf_z500_vort_east_15.thumb.png.a2845141b182fb796f57230180424856.png

 

Gets absorbed into Jose and the wind field expands. But will this process result in any more of a tug closer to the coast than just a brush of the BM? Stay tuned..

 

ecmwf_z500_vort_east_22.thumb.png.ebd8e077fb3903d7322ba199ed38b980.png

 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Z-Cast said:

Again with this Sandy vs. X stuff? Is every single US 'Cane thread going to endure this? Take it to banter please...

With that said, Jose is tracking pretty south of the UKMET, GFS, CMC, and ECMWF's 6-12 hr forecast points. Possible west shift tonight?

What do you expect when someone from SE Florida says Sandy was no biggie in a thread for a hurricane that's a threat to the same area destroyed by said storm....

 

What I'm most interested in, is the state of Jose down the road. If he follows the Gulf Stream it a simple answer tropical but out to sea. If he does come closer in he's heading over cool shelf waters. Waters that normally disrupt storms that are hauling up the coast like Gloria. Those waters are even cooler then normal. ( I have been in them everyday for the last week) the cool start to September and the extended period of offshore flow and subsequent upwelling really dropped near shore temps. I would want to see ETT start as early as possible to take advantage of any enhanced baroclynicity that may be provided by the Irma vort. Otherwise I don't see how this is much more then a weak tropical storm 

 

 

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Don, how close does the center need to be in order to get significant rainfall and wind on the coast? 200 miles?

 

There's no set distance so to speak. For example, predecessor rainfall events can be hundreds of miles from the center. Interaction with frontal boundaries, post-tropical transition, etc. can lead to significant rainfall well away from the center.

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