Heisy Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 12z EURO actually looks farther E so far thru 72 hours compared to the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Euro looks like it may head OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdennis78 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: Euro looks like it may head OTS Which Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Jose would become the longest-lasting Atlantic tropical storm (and or hurricane) if it persists to 09z October 3rd, it formed on September 5th (15z advisory) and the current record is 27 days 18h from 1899. Second place is 27d 6h for Ginger (1971). Jose only has to last to the 25th to make it into the top ten. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: About 60 miles ENE at 60 hrs compared to 0z. The H5 is a near-perfect match with the GFS. However, the mid-range is what is important here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 The Euro might be further East, but it's still not going to be a quick turn OTS. If anything, it looks basically stalled East of OBX on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Euro is handling the western trough and TC vastly different than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 That's a pretty strong ridge to the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 That's quite a massive wind field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 GFS and Euro remarkably close 12z Tues E of HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 This trough is either going to help steer Jose out at the last minute, or it's going to lift out, the ridge is going to build to the North and Jose is going to move Westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 The blocking isn't strong enough to force Jose further west like Sandy. There's still several days left so things could change a bit but don't see this as being more than a maritime threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12Z Euro shifted further east in the direction of the 0z EPS mean. Slightly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Cmc gfs and Euro look similiar Very close call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 The difference with the Euro is the amplitude of the trough. The less amplified trough into the West coast led to a less amplified trough over SE Canada and thus Jose was pushed up and out rather than up and in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Most are either landfalls or pretty far from land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 High pressure over New Foundland may not be strong enough to block or force landfall, but given the potential size of Irma through days 4-7, such a setup would create a strong pressure gradient over coastal Mid-Atlantic and New England. The wave action could be quite strong and a big threat to shipping lanes and the fishing industry. Jose may remain a big slow moving nuisance north of 35 for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, Windspeed said: High pressure over New Foundland may not be strong enough to block or force landfall, but given the potential size of Irma through days 4-7, such a setup would create a strong pressure gradient over coastal Mid-Atlantic and New England. The wave action could be quite strong and a big threat to shipping lanes and the fishing industry. Jose may remain a big slow moving nuisance north of 35 for days. Jose you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Jose you mean?D'oh! Yes, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 The GFS track reminds me of Edouard from 96. Being on the jersey shore for that one, it was a dud, few clouds, I remember going to the beach and the sea was rough and the tide was a bit high, but overall, nothing to really write home about. I think Cape Cod felt it a bit more. So if anyone thinks a grazer 150 miles out to sea delivers, it really doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 The wave pattern of Atlantic tropics is such a consistent variable. A storm like Jose seems more likely after Irma/Harvey by a multiple of 5. There is probably a name for this index. I think the NHC track is good. The storm will probably not make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 At 5 pm, Tropical Storm Jose was located at 25.2°N, 67.3°W. Over the past 18 hours, it had tracked approximately 130 kilometers to the west. At present, Jose is beginning to add a northerly component to its motion. Overall, the overall weight of the guidance argues against U.S. landfall. A few more ECMWF ensemble members suggest landfall, but most don't. In terms of historic climatology, 25% of the August-September storms passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 5 pm position (1851-present) made U.S. landfall. That is somewhat higher than the 18% figure last night at 11 pm. One should reasonably have expected such an increased probability on account of Jose's closer proximity to the U.S. The increase is not sufficiently great to warrant much change in thinking, especially in light of the 12z guidance. The probability of landfall in Canada remained greater than that for the United States. Newfoundland and Labrador remained about twice as likely to see landfall as Nova Scotia. Landfall in Canada was still somewhat lower than the prospect of Jose's not making any landfall. So, at least for now, increasingly large swells and strong rip currents will likely be Jose's principal effects along much of the East Coast. The storm's strongest winds and rain will likely remain offshore based on the current guidance, though its wind field could expand should it undergo post-tropical transition as it heads northward offshore next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At 5 pm, Tropical Storm Jose was located at 25.2°N, 67.3°W. Over the past 18 hours, it had tracked approximately 130 kilometers to the west. At present, Jose is beginning to add a northerly component to its motion. Overall, the overall weight of the guidance argues against U.S. landfall. A few more ECMWF ensemble members suggest landfall, but most don't. In terms of historic climatology, 25% of the August-September storms passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 5 pm position (1851-present) made U.S. landfall. That is somewhat higher than the 18% figure last night at 11 pm. One should reasonably have expected such an increased probability on account of Jose's closer proximity to the U.S. The increase is not sufficiently great to warrant much change in thinking, especially in light of the 12z guidance. The probability of landfall in Canada remained greater than that for the United States. Newfoundland and Labrador remained about twice as likely to see landfall as Nova Scotia. Landfall in Canada was still somewhat lower than the prospect of Jose's not making any landfall. So, at least for now, increasingly large swells and strong rip currents will likely be Jose's principal effects along much of the East Coast. The storm's strongest winds and rain will likely remain offshore based on the current guidance, though its wind field could expand should it undergo post-tropical transition as it heads northward offshore next week. Don, the center doesn't need to come ashore in order for this to be a damaging storm for the beaches. I think the probability of significant erosion and coastal flooding is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 18z GFS coming in slightly NW of 12z run through 114hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Curious as to what is Jose's current ACE and is there a link to where it can be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Close pass to SNE at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Next storm 936mb south of PR at 150hrs, not much time for sleep this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 18z gfs is still offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, snow1 said: 18z gfs is still offshore But west of 12z Trend so far has been closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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