Hazey Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, kdennis78 said: What is the 40/70 benchmark? I think I know but I don't want to vocalize my ignorance if I don't. 40N 70 West map coordinates. The sweet spot for a New England snowstorm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, kdennis78 said: What is the 40/70 benchmark? I think I know but I don't want to vocalize my ignorance if I don't. 40N latitude and 70W longitude. It's usually talked about with snowstorms. Too far west of the benchmark and it's typically rain and sleet. Too far east and it misses you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdennis78 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: 40N 70 West map coordinates. The sweet spot for a New England snowstorm track Thanks, I thought it was that. But in tropical systems I didn't know if it meant sweet spot for a Mid-Atlantic hurricane strike. Sandy was enough for me, and NJ (and no one) really needs another strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Even with a track/position like that on the GFS, it would bring TS strength winds to the South Coast and Cape Cod area as the storm transitions to sub-tropical and the wind field expands out from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, kdennis78 said: Thanks, I thought it was that. But in tropical systems I didn't know if it meant sweet spot for a Mid-Atlantic hurricane strike. Sandy was enough for me, and NJ (and no one) really needs another strike. It's not. It's just a general location reference. Nothing more. It no way implies a hit to the mid-Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Looks like Lee getting it's freak on down north of the Bahamas' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 31 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I agree. The 10ft storm tide that came through my house was definitely garbage. How Is able to fly? Anything disrespectful to the Irma victims was getting deleted during the storm. Long Beach had more damage then anywhere in the entire mainland of Florida and similar damage as the Keys. And that's just one of hundreds of examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 And Jose or what's left of him still spinning northeast of Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Just now, LSC97wxnut said: And Jose or what's left of him still spinning northeast of Bermuda? The trend of Jose getting stuck SE sooner is probably important. I just don't know how it will play out. I suppose at least one of these two hurricanes on the GFS will be an EC impact. The question is, which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said: And Jose or what's left of him still spinning northeast of Bermuda? Yeah. lol GFS has Jose do another anti-cyclonic loop northeast of Bermuda, resuming a northwest motion by hour 234. Pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z UKMET appears to have come west at 12z. But it typically has a SW bias. GFS is usually too far NE. So 12z Euro may come west from 0z between the GFS-UKMET position. Ukie is near NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Aside from beach erosion and any low potential land interaction with OBX that can't yet be entirely ruled out, Jose's meandering in the general vicinity between the Bahamas and Bermuda has been beneficial. Jose's circulation has decreased shallow layer SSTs around 2°C over a large area, and in combination with Irma, their upwelling has significantly weakened TCHP north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Granted, the Bahamas are still bathwater, as is most of the Caribbean and GOM. But any potential future NW trackers into the triangle may be checked in intensity, at least until a closer approach into the Bahamas or the Gulf Stream. Obviously any tracks further south into the Bahamas would still have high intensity/major hurricane potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Jose loses its 850mb closed circulation south of Greenland this run around hour 324, the left over energy and trough axis then rounds the STR and forms another closed circulation between the Azores and Portugal by hour 384. Never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: So I am guessing the Euro will come west but not quite that far. Ukmet did okay with Irma but ended up too far west over Cuba. Euro was great until Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie is near NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 12z GFS up close and personal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Will it really be 993mb? Or is ukie not good with strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Even the Euro, showing a relatively weak system precip wise has quite the wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, snow1 said: Will it really be 993mb? Or is ukie not good with strength? It's not unreasonable if the system remains mostly warm core. If the system begins to transition, the system could begin to deepen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 12z gefs not helping clarify things at all. Huge spread at 126 hr, ranging from coastal North Carolina to well east of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 12z GEFS, lots of close calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aperson Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z gefs not helping clarify things at all. Huge spread at 126 hr, ranging from coastal North Carolina to well east of the BM. Looks like a bifurcation around day 3. The north group are (almost) all recurving out to sea. Substantial variability in the south group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 It looks like a decent NW shift on the 12z HWRF through day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Well, intensity aside, this track is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 The 12z HMON kind of agrees with the HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 HWTF is near-evacuation material for Jersey Shore, things are getting dicey. Not willing to take a stand on intensity other than waters support a 960mb cane at that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 With current models what's everyone's thoughts on storm surge ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdennis78 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: HWTF is near-evacuation material for Jersey Shore, things are getting dicey. Not willing to take a stand on intensity other than waters support a 960mb cane at that location. Isn't that language a bit strong? I mean you don't want to scare anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: HWTF is near-evacuation material for Jersey Shore, things are getting dicey. Not willing to take a stand on intensity other than waters support a 960mb cane at that location. I wouldn't go that far. We are days out yet. Tracks are very uncertain. A track 300 miles offshore would give some large waves/spill over/beach erosion. Our beaches have handled the large swells over the last few weeks quite well, no need to sound the alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 And of course the Euro is a good bit Northeast of the 00z run by day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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