Tropical Storm Jose

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

12z UKmet tho. It's not over untill that model moves over to the Euro camp. Infact, it doubled down even more. It may be related to a stronger Jose being more SW due to the ridge pumping mechanism.

I didn't see that.. it's still into Fla?

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I didn't see that.. it's still into Fla?

Here is the text output for the 12z UKmet.

Quote

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 68.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2017 0 27.2N 68.6W 977 61
0000UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.5N 66.8W 968 71
1200UTC 13.09.2017 24 25.4N 66.1W 971 66
0000UTC 14.09.2017 36 24.4N 66.4W 969 73
1200UTC 14.09.2017 48 23.9N 67.6W 967 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 60 23.7N 69.4W 966 79
1200UTC 15.09.2017 72 23.9N 71.9W 965 78
0000UTC 16.09.2017 84 24.2N 74.5W 960 78
1200UTC 16.09.2017 96 24.7N 76.9W 949 81
0000UTC 17.09.2017 108 25.1N 79.0W 950 83
1200UTC 17.09.2017 120 25.8N 80.3W 945 81
0000UTC 18.09.2017 132 26.6N 81.3W 962 63
1200UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.0N 82.3W 972 63

 

[wxmx]

The 12z Ukmet is a Miami hit, and by the end of the run is entering the GoM around Fort Myers/Port Charlotte

[jbenedet]

13 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Here is the text output for the 12z UKmet.

 

Hmmm...That's night and day differences relative to the GFS/Euro from day 3 to day 5.

That's not long range guidance either...one of these two camps is going to cave bigtime soon...

Clearly the Ukmet is seeing a MUCH stronger WAR--the question is "why?"...

The Euro and GFS had a stronger WAR up until yesterday, but have since lost it. The Ukmet has remained steadfast though...

[donsutherland1]

In my view, the 12z UKMET is an outlier. It seems to portray a low and diminishing probability scenario.

Jose is currently situated on the northwestern periphery of an expansive ridge. There's also a strong storm to the southeast of Nova Scotia that could, at least in the short-term, impede the ability of that ridge to expand over top to block Jose's eventual recurvature away from the U.S.

Were Jose on the southwestern periphery of the ridge, I could see its loop putting it into a position for possible Florida landfall. But that's not the case. Following the loop, it will likely wind up being in a position that is still too far to the north and east for it to pose a significant threat of U.S. landfall. There's also no evidence of the kind of strong blocking that preceded Sandy's landfall developing to steer Jose to the East Coast from such a position.

The 12z GFS, 0z ECWMF, and the 0z ECMWF ensembles seem more reasonable from my perspective. I suspect that the 12z GEFS will point to a similar outcome. Climatology also supports the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Of the 43 hurricanes that were within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 11 am position, just 16% (a little less than 1-in-6) made U.S. landfall.

[NJwx85]

The 12z GGEM makes about three loops and eventually sends what's left into NJ lol

One thing is for sure, steering currents will be relatively weak beyond day 4-5, so Jose might just end up meandering somewhere for a few days.

[wxmx]

The difference strives mainly on how the models handle the NE trough. The Ukie is more progressive, and lifts it out faster than the other models, enabling the Bermuda ridge to build on time to block Jose from escaping N/NE

[ag3]

30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GGEM makes about three loops and eventually sends what's left into NJ lol

One thing is for sure, steering currents will be relatively weak beyond day 4-5, so Jose might just end up meandering somewhere for a few days.

12z Navgem is a direct NYC/LI hit today as well.

I know it's the Navgem. Just pointing out all model outputs.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ag3 said:

12z Navgem is a direct NYC/LI hit today as well.

I know it's the Navgem. Just pointing out all model outputs.

lmao I was literally just about to post, "I'm surprised that Anthony or Yanks hasn't posted the 12z Navgem yet."

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

lmao I was literally just about to post, "I'm surprised that Anthony or Yanks hasn't posted the 12z Navgem yet."

It's still just coming out on Tropical Tidbits. To me it doesn't look like a high impact track as NYC and NJ would end up on the weaker NW side of the system. It also doesn't look terribly deep. I think the best chance of a big hit up this way is if the system managed to make landfall in the Carolinas and then move North.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's still just coming out on Tropical Tidbits. To me it doesn't look like a high impact track as NYC and NJ would end up on the weaker NW side of the system. It also doesn't look terribly deep. I think the best chance of a big hit up this way is if the system managed to make landfall in the Carolinas and then move North.

It's still way north and west of the gfs and euro.

[Paragon]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's still way north and west of the gfs and euro.

the chances of anything coming closer than doing the usual rip tide stuff is probably less than 10%

[Vice-Regent]

3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

the chances of anything coming closer than doing the usual rip tide stuff is probably less than 10%

For reals though. You would end up with a UKmet-esque result if you combine the GFS intensity with the Euro H5 (as of 12z 96 hours). This probably far from settled.

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

For reals though. You would end up with a UKmet-esque result if you combine the GFS intensity with the Euro H5 (as of 12z 96 hours). This probably far from settled.

Okay maybe between 10-20% I wouldn't go higher than that though.

[NJwx85]

None of the 12z GEFS members are a hit, and at least half are East of the OP.

I'm not even sure this survives more than a few more days based on the forecasted shear.

[donsutherland1]

The 0z ECMWF, 0z ECMWF ensembles, 12z GFS, and newly-available 12z GFS ensembles all indicate only a low probability of Jose’s making U.S. landfall. Some wacky model solutions notwithstanding, both the GFS and ECMWF are far more in line with what one would expect given historic climatology and also the current synoptic pattern (Jose remains on the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic ridge; it is being tugged eastward from the circulation of a large storm centered near 41.5°N 55.5°W).
Some historic climatology statistics for reference regarding Hurricane Jose:
 
Since 1851, there were 43 hurricanes that tracked within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 11 am position (27.5°N 68.3°W) during August or September. Select statistics follow.

U.S. Landfall: 16%
No U.S. Landfall: 84%

Of the 7 hurricanes that made landfall, first U.S. landfall locations were as follows:
Alabama: 1 (14%)
Florida: 2 (29%)
New York: 1 (14%)
North Carolina: 2 (29%)
Virginia: 1 (14%)

In terms of intensity, the landfalls were as follows:
Category 1: 5 (71%)
Category 2: 1 (14%)
Category 3: 1 (14%)

Of the 36 storms that did not make U.S. landfall, 12 (33%) made landfall in Canada. Of those 12 storms, landfall in Canada was as follows:

Newfoundland and Labrador: 8 (67%)
Nova Scotia: 4 (33%)

Finally, with respect to the GFS ensembles, not a single ensemble member shows U.S. landfall from Jose. A few members of the ECMWF ensembles show such landfall. Overall, especially when historic climatology and the current synoptic pattern are considered, the probability of such landfall remains low. More likely, Jose will likely recurve somewhere between North Carolina’s Outer Banks and Bermuda.

Below are the GFS ensembles (Weathernerds.org):

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 0z ECMWF, 0z ECMWF ensembles, 12z GFS, and newly-available 12z GFS ensembles all indicate only a low probability of Jose’s making U.S. landfall. Some wacky model solutions notwithstanding, both the GFS and ECMWF are far more in line with what one would expect given historic climatology and also the current synoptic pattern (Jose remains on the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic ridge; it is being tugged eastward from the circulation of a large storm centered near 41.5°N 55.5°W).
Some historic climatology statistics for reference regarding Hurricane Jose:
 
Since 1851, there were 43 hurricanes that tracked within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 11 am position (27.5°N 68.3°W) during August or September. Select statistics follow.

U.S. Landfall: 16%
No U.S. Landfall: 84%

Of the 7 hurricanes that made landfall, first U.S. landfall locations were as follows:
Alabama: 1 (14%)
Florida: 2 (29%)
New York: 1 (14%)
North Carolina: 2 (29%)
Virginia: 1 (14%)

In terms of intensity, the landfalls were as follows:
Category 1: 5 (71%)
Category 2: 1 (14%)
Category 3: 1 (14%)

Of the 36 storms that did not make U.S. landfall, 12 (33%) made landfall in Canada. Of those 12 storms, landfall in Canada was as follows:

Newfoundland and Labrador: 8 (67%)
Nova Scotia: 4 (33%)

Finally, with respect to the GFS ensembles, not a single ensemble member shows U.S. landfall from Jose. A few members of the ECMWF ensembles show such landfall. Overall, especially when historic climatology and the current synoptic pattern are considered, the probability of such landfall remains low. More likely, Jose will likely recurve somewhere between North Carolina’s Outer Banks and Bermuda.

Below are the GFS ensembles (Weathernerds.org):

Don, looks like my 10-20% revised guess was a good approximation :-P  This storm reminds me of Felix 1995, which did a similar loop, about 200 miles off the coast of Hatteras, weakened due to shear and upwelling and then went out to sea.  For a time it appeared it might track as close as Montauk Pt but it tracked hundreds of miles offshore, as I suspect this one will.

 

[Taylorsweather]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 0z ECMWF, 0z ECMWF ensembles, 12z GFS, and newly-available 12z GFS ensembles all indicate only a low probability of Jose’s making U.S. landfall. Some wacky model solutions notwithstanding, both the GFS and ECMWF are far more in line with what one would expect given historic climatology and also the current synoptic pattern (Jose remains on the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic ridge; it is being tugged eastward from the circulation of a large storm centered near 41.5°N 55.5°W).
Some historic climatology statistics for reference regarding Hurricane Jose:
 
Since 1851, there were 43 hurricanes that tracked within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s 11 am position (27.5°N 68.3°W) during August or September. Select statistics follow.

U.S. Landfall: 16%
No U.S. Landfall: 84%

Of the 7 hurricanes that made landfall, first U.S. landfall locations were as follows:
Alabama: 1 (14%)
Florida: 2 (29%)
New York: 1 (14%)
North Carolina: 2 (29%)
Virginia: 1 (14%)

In terms of intensity, the landfalls were as follows:
Category 1: 5 (71%)
Category 2: 1 (14%)
Category 3: 1 (14%)

Of the 36 storms that did not make U.S. landfall, 12 (33%) made landfall in Canada. Of those 12 storms, landfall in Canada was as follows:

Newfoundland and Labrador: 8 (67%)
Nova Scotia: 4 (33%)

Finally, with respect to the GFS ensembles, not a single ensemble member shows U.S. landfall from Jose. A few members of the ECMWF ensembles show such landfall. Overall, especially when historic climatology and the current synoptic pattern are considered, the probability of such landfall remains low. More likely, Jose will likely recurve somewhere between North Carolina’s Outer Banks and Bermuda.

Below are the GFS ensembles (Weathernerds.org):

I'll go with climatology until some parameter(s) such as the WAR or troughing are well outside the norm and tell us Jose has a shot at the US.  

[Yanksfan]

18z GFS has Jose making a closer pass to coastline courtesy of a stronger ridge. Clips Cape Cod.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

18z GFS has Jose making a closer pass to coastline courtesy of a stronger ridge. Clips Cape Cod.

Big west shift on the gfs

[jbenedet]

19 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

18z GFS has Jose making a closer pass to coastline courtesy of a stronger ridge. Clips Cape Cod.

Yea that was a big shift back towards the runs we had up until yesterday showing east coasts grazes/hits. Still some work to do bringing him toward 75W...

And regarding the shift, I'm talking  only out to hr 96, where he's ~150 miles further southwest. This run also showed a deeper system at that hr -- 959 mb versus 968 mb at 12z.

 

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that was a big shift back towards the runs we had up until yesterday showing east coasts grazes/hits. Still some work to do bringing him toward 75W...

And regarding the shift, I'm talking  only out to hr 96, where he's ~150 miles further southwest. This run also showed a deeper system at that hr -- 959 mb versus 968 mb at 12z.

 

Gefs also shifted west

Fwiw the  Navgem is coming in with another big storm a long the coast

[jbenedet]

17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs also shifted west

Fwiw the  Navgem is coming in with another big storm a long the coast

Yea that was a big shift on the gefs out to 96.

Would really like the euro to get on board tonight. GFS has him at 959 mb at hr 96, while the 0z euro is 1005 mb and 250 miles further northeast at the same hr...And then there's the 12z ukie which has him in the central Bahamas at 995 mb. Quite the spread at day 4, to say the least....

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Paragon said:

Don, looks like my 10-20% revised guess was a good approximation :-P  This storm reminds me of Felix 1995, which did a similar loop, about 200 miles off the coast of Hatteras, weakened due to shear and upwelling and then went out to sea.  For a time it appeared it might track as close as Montauk Pt but it tracked hundreds of miles offshore, as I suspect this one will.

 

Felix produced some tremendous surf during August 95. Long Island beaches were washed over and closed to swimming for almost 2 weeks. There was also some pretty severe beach erosion.

Jose, if he gets close enough will probably do the same but hardly anyone will notice as the beach season is effectively over 

[yoda]

Hmmmm

 

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, yoda said:

Hmmmm

 

The errors at 120 hours are large. Let's see where things stand in a few days. 

[Amped]

Latest windsat from the NRL page confirms OFCL forecast already busted north.

It's now southwest of the forecast track.   Edit: South not southwest.

26.8N 66.8W is my estimate.

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, Amped said:

Latest windsat from the NRL page confirms OFCL forecast already busted north.

It's now southwest of the forecast track

26.8N 66.8W is my estimate.

Jose is beginning to make its anti-cyclonic loop. The 11 pm report will be out soon.

[Hazey]

We need to wait for Jose to complete the loop and then see where it stands before writing this off.

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, Hazey said:

We need to wait for Jose to complete the loop and then see where it stands before writing this off.

At least according to historic climatology based on all hurricanes that passed within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 11 pm position, Atlantic Canada is nearly twice as likely to see landfall as the United States (Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest probability). Eastern Canada should certainly be closely monitoring Jose, even as a lot of uncertainty remains. There remains some probability of U.S. landfall (about one-in-six from climatology and a little less from the GFS and ECWMF ensembles).