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Tropical Banter Thread


Rjay

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Agreed, we haven't even seen the worst of the damage from Puerto Rico, so some here should save the backpatting a bit.
I don't know why stressed focus is directed so much on the realtime NHC intensity anyway. They do the best they can with satellite and reconnaissance data. But the reality is that atmospheric changes happen rapidly. They have to forecast to the best of their ability about what is happening realtime with the empirical observations and package that into an advisory product. Any person that would armchair quarterback that and degrade the NHC needs a reality check. They have the weight of human life and function of governmental agencies envolved. They have to go with the evidence they have with potential threats envolved at hand. The meteorologists at the NHC are some of the best on the planet. These folks aren't scrubs.

 

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Whoa! I've introduced politics because we live in an era when everything is political.  Cable news ratings are going through the roof and football ratings are dropping like a rock. I can understand people criticizing me for bashing someone like Rick Scott.  My comments were incendiary especially considering the fact that most users on this board are white males and white males in the United States are overwhelmingly Republican.  But you my friend are playing the race card.  People in Jacksonville, North Carolina know what to do when a hurricane approaches or threatens the North Carolina coast.

 

Oh for God's sake, has anyone warned the person? The bloody damn point is not getting through. Delete this crap and move on..


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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:


 

 


No apology needed. That sucks for you. Good luck.

 

Crossing my fingers.  Nate looks like dog poo rn.  But I guess it was to be expected.  Hopefully Nicaragua and Honduras do a number on him.  At least enough where he can't get his act together until after passing the Yucatan.   Yeah, I'm totally being a homer right now. 

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2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Anyone from the airline industry here?   Looking at the NHC maps, says TS winds don't arrive until tomorrow at 8pm in CUN.   My flght gets there at 11am tomm.  What's the odds United gets skittish and cancel the flight?

In the same boat. Heading to Riviera Maya for my final wedding tasting/vendor selection Saturday, landing at 11:00am. Hoping to god this thing stays disorganized and just shoots up and out quick.

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45 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Crossing my fingers.  Nate looks like dog poo rn.  But I guess it was to be expected.  Hopefully Nicaragua and Honduras do a number on him.  At least enough where he can't get his act together until after passing the Yucatan.   Yeah, I'm totally being a homer right now. 

Randy, I think you're safe, even if it intensifies into a hurricane. CUN shouldn't get TS winds until late tomorrow.

 

35 minutes ago, RutCorRX said:

In the same boat. Heading to Riviera Maya for my final wedding tasting/vendor selection Saturday, landing at 11:00am. Hoping to god this thing stays disorganized and just shoots up and out quick.

A little more dicey, since the airline has to make a call several hours before 11 am. At 11 am it should be all clear, and I think the chances of you having a cancellation are less than 50%, but it will be a close call.

 

I think the incoming flights that have a higher chance of being disrupted range from 8pm Friday to 5am Saturday for landing time.

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36 minutes ago, RutCorRX said:

In the same boat. Heading to Riviera Maya for my final wedding tasting/vendor selection Saturday, landing at 11:00am. Hoping to god this thing stays disorganized and just shoots up and out quick.

Good luck man...I think you'll be ok...Nate should be north of the area then?  But listen to wxmx...I'm definitely not a Tropical dude

2 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Randy, I think you're safe, even if it intensifies into a hurricane. CUN shouldn't get TS winds until late tomorrow.

 

 

I think the incoming flights that have a higher chance of being disrupted range from 8pm Friday to 5am Saturday for landing time.

Thanks man.  You pretty much confirmed what another guy who is in the airline industry said.  He thinks I should be ok.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Good luck man...I think you'll be ok...Nate should be north of the area then?  But listen to wxmx...I'm definitely not a Tropical dude

Thanks man.  You pretty much confirmed what another guy who is in the airline industry said.  He thinks I should be ok.

And of course, as I was typing that, the 12z GFS decided to accelerate things by a few hours :S. Still, I think there's a good time buffer for you to get inbound with no issues, but hope there are no flight delays that day.

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29 minutes ago, wxmx said:

And of course, as I was typing that, the 12z GFS decided to accelerate things by a few hours :S. Still, I think there's a good time buffer for you to get inbound with no issues, but hope there are no flight delays that day.

lol @ the GGEM.   I want it to be right...but GGEM :(

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lol @ the GGEM.   I want it to be right...but GGEM

 

The HWRF is intensifying this pretty quickly on approach to Cozumel. Even though Nate is being modeled as a small core system at that time and does not hit the area of the Riviera you are going to, Tulum, Akumel, etc., it's too damn close for comfort for flight delays or cancellations issues. Unfortunately, you're just not going to know anything more certain with United until tomorrow.

 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

The HWRF is intensifying this pretty quickly on approach to Cozumel. Even though Nate is being modeled as a small core system at that time and does not hit the area of the Riviera you are going to, Tulum, Akumel, etc., it's too damn close for comfort for flight delays or cancellations issues. Unfortunately, you're just not going to know anything more certain with United until tomorrow.

 

Hmm, I thought the HWRF was fine.  Didn't even get rain/wind in until after 2?  Im prob reading it wrong. 

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Oh I see, you are flying into Tulum. My bad. In my head I was imagining you flying into Cancun and driving down, which I have done. But yeah, that makes more sense. Even if Nate deepens rapidly, hopefully it will be far enough east not to screw up your flight.

No no..im flying into CUN..I'd get there at 11am.  Then driving down to Tulum, you're correct.  Last time I did that, I was on the beach in Tulum by 1pm

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No no..im flying into CUN..I'd get there at 11am.  Then driving down to Tulum, you're correct.  Last time I did that, I was on the beach in Tulum by 1pm

Ugh... I don't know, man. Southern quadrant may still be close and possibility intense convective banding over Cancun even if the small vortex is north of the coast. You're really playing it close here. Ah well, hope for the best. Perhaps at worst you just get delayed a bit.
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