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Tropical Banter Thread


Rjay

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Saw this in the Maria thread and something jumped out at me. That track with the segment into the northern Bahamas and another into S. FL has to be Andrew, right? It strikes me how anomalous his track well north of the Lesser Antilles followed by a due west to even WSW beeline through the northern Bahamas and into south Florida really was. I first got into following tropical weather as a kid in the early-mid '90s, when The Weather Channel was my favorite channel to watch and all the documentaries were about Andrew because it was THE hurricane of the decade. So I grew up thinking that sort of track was typical (and that Cat. 4+ U.S. landfalls were a once every 2-3 year thing, since Hugo was still being talked about a lot as well).

It also strikes me, in retrospect, how unlucky the U.S. was to have two Cat 4+ landfalls in three years in what was considered a down phase of the AMO.

Yet here Maria is coming in well south of where Andrew was, and still is, at this juncture, considered more likely to recurve OTS than make a CONUS landfall. That had to be a heck of a ridge expansion that drove Andrew into Homestead from roughly 25N 65W. Also looks like Hugo was actually south of Andrew for awhile, and that 45-degree right turn that held steady all the way into SC was pretty anomalous, as well!

cat-5s.jpeg

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19 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Saw this in the Maria thread and something jumped out at me. That track with the segment into the northern Bahamas and another into S. FL has to be Andrew, right? It strikes me how anomalous his track well north of the Lesser Antilles followed by a due west to even WSW beeline through the northern Bahamas and into south Florida really was. I first got into following tropical weather as a kid in the early-mid '90s, when The Weather Channel was my favorite channel to watch and all the documentaries were about Andrew because it was THE hurricane of the decade. So I grew up thinking that sort of track was typical (and that Cat. 4+ U.S. landfalls were a once every 2-3 year thing, since Hugo was still being talked about a lot as well).

It also strikes me, in retrospect, how unlucky the U.S. was to have two Cat 4+ landfalls in three years in what was considered a down phase of the AMO.

Yet here Maria is coming in well south of where Andrew was, and still is, at this juncture, considered more likely to recurve OTS than make a CONUS landfall. That had to be a heck of a ridge expansion that drove Andrew into Homestead from roughly 25N 65W. Also looks like Hugo was actually south of Andrew for awhile, and that 45-degree right turn that held steady all the way into SC was pretty anomalous, as well!

cat-5s.jpeg

Pretty cool that Irma and Maria will be 2 of the 4 most furthest NE. 

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20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

There is literally nothing worse than people trying to guess what the models are going to say. 240 hours out and we can't even wait 8 minutes until the graphics load before declaring final outcomes.

Agree and this behavior is getting worse every year. The weenies want to say "I told you so", or "I called that one".

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There was a 7.1 earthquake in Mexico City.  There was a thread about strengthening TCs leading to  tremors and with research published in Nature from both the Pacific and Atlantic.  We had an 8.3 right after Irma went through RI and now we have this one following Maria's RI.

https://twitter.com/search?q="Mexico City"&src=tren&data_id=tweet%3A910217328222199810

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27 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

because of the quake today i was wondering what would be the effect on a hurricane if a quake happened on the path it would take.. would the shaking cause cooler water to come to the surface and weaken the storm?

No, but you might see it start dancing on the satellite imagery.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

No, but you might see it start dancing on the satellite imagery.

Thats only if the earthquake tremors reach the satellites though. Not common. Happened in the great big explosion quake of 1928 though, shook all our satellites and broke some lenses. 

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I'm actually on a cruise ship heading away from Hispaniola right now, which is kind of freaky because it means yesterday we were heading *towards* Maria (for Royal Caribbean's port on Haiti). Fortunately I didn't tell my mother about this trip because she'd be (irrationally) losing her mind right now.

Now torn between worrying about my friend's family in San Juan (and all of PR) and wondering if Maria will manage to jog west far enough to hang around off Florida just in time to stop me from getting off this ship as scheduled on Sunday.

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I am so sick of the same people saying that it won't weaken with no evidence, and the same people saying it will weaken with no reasoning.

 

It doesn't really matter to me, both sides are extremely annoying...especially when they make a guess and then thump their chest that they were right.

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