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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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13 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

You have been nominated...
3...2...1...GO!!!

edit: "Completed Through 240hrs" should be enough. At the very minimum to at least get someone on the right track. if that combined with the storm totals being shown doesn't help then I can't be the one to explain.  

The other graphic says 216 hours on it...that's nine days from now.  Nine days from now doesn't bring us to next Saturday, it's next Sunday.   And if I misread it, I apologize...certainly not the first one here to misread a graphic.  

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20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I looked at the snowfall graphic you put up...it said 240.  Your other one showing the system said 216 hr...which is 9 days away, which still doesn't make it next Saturday Kevin.  So please explain how a 216 hour graphic gets us to next Saturday?

12z run, yesterday.  2nd graphic extends to 12z Saturday, after the event would be done.

(I'll be in the <1" zone, in SNJ.  No angst missing a 6-8" storm - lots different from the Jan '15 blizzard.)

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someone should start a thread titled, "Day 9 Euro bombs, 2017-2017"

In it we will trap images of ...you guest it, day 9 Euro bombs - and by bombs ..we just mean lies in general. ...I mean, any sort of highly convoluted flow structure with 1.5 day long near perfect tapestry certainly would qualify as the first the season.

It'll be interesting come early April to look back at all those failures - but just for humor/commiseration's sake either. But, the ever irrepressible day 9 bomb compared to whatever verified on that particular day (comparison) is an actual learning tool that very specifically and acutely points out why this p.o.s. hobby truly is wasting one's life...

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS keeps the Aleutian ridge thru day 15,,which keeps colder pattern in place. Good news..Don't want troughing up there we saw hints of this week. Really good looking pattern right thru day 15

It looks like an Aleutian low. Like El Niño. It has downstream ridging in PNA region and even eastern EPO region. Kind of weird for a La Niña but it's a good pattern. I do expect the Aleutian ridge to return though. Hopefully when it does it is poleward. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I've been noticing a lot of confusion in here lately between an Aleutian low and AK low. The big ole one eyed pig vortex that we don't want is centered over AK/Yukon. A low over the Aleutians can be good as Will said....we get the PNA ridging. 

Thanks for the clarification. It was a bit confusing. Now it makes sense.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I've been noticing a lot of confusion in here lately between an Aleutian low and AK low. The big ole one eyed pig vortex that we don't want is centered over AK/Yukon. A low over the Aleutians can be good as Will said....we get the PNA ridging. 

Yes, thanks for straightening that out.

 

Kevin said an Aleutian Ridge, then Will said no, An Aleutian low.... and I'm not trying to be sarcastic at all with this question, but how can one confuse a "Ridge" and a "Low?" Just Trying to understand this?

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kevin meant aleutians low-I’m actually confident about that.

Well that would make sense.

 

But reading the post, he mentions that we don't want troughing in that region, meaning we want to see a ridge there..which is what he said. 

 

I guess like BRIAN clarified, we don't want to see the low over Alaska/Yukon area, but a low over the Aleutians is fine.  

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36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that would make sense.

 

But reading the post, he mentions that we don't want troughing in that region, meaning we want to see a ridge there..which is what he said. 

 

I guess like BRIAN clarified, we don't want to see the low over Alaska/Yukon area, but a low over the Aleutians is fine.  

Ok....we get what he posted.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, thanks for straightening that out.

 

Kevin said an Aleutian Ridge, then Will said no, An Aleutian low.... and I'm not trying to be sarcastic at all with this question, but how can one confuse a "Ridge" and a "Low?" Just Trying to understand this?

 

 

 

 

Kevin's strong holds are not model interpretation.

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