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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

record breaking dews

Next week’s peak on Mon-Tues looks like a temp in Hartford in the low-mid 70s and dews in the mid-upper 60s. Air temp of 73 and dew point of 67 yields a heat index of... 74. Good luck coping with that 

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23 minutes ago, WNash said:

Next week’s peak on Mon-Tues looks like a temp in Hartford in the low-mid 70s and dews in the mid-upper 60s. Air temp of 73 and dew point of 67 yields a heat index of... 74. Good luck coping with that 

The dangerous drought and dry soil may help keep the dewpoint down next week.

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1 hour ago, WNash said:

Next week’s peak on Mon-Tues looks like a temp in Hartford in the low-mid 70s and dews in the mid-upper 60s. Air temp of 73 and dew point of 67 yields a heat index of... 74. Good luck coping with that 

Instead of your continuous harassing..why not take a look and see what the 100th percentile dews are for the 2nd week of October and get back to us when you have an answer

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2 hours ago, WxBlue said:

Huh? I see absolutely nothing of any sort to suggest severe wx.

Nate goes west of NE..deep tropical feed..strong cold front..

 

You've got an anomalous LLJ and an actual phasing of Nate's remnants with the low/trough.

 

Euro shows a damaging wind event

KevpvCv.png

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7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nate goes west of NE..deep tropical feed..strong cold front..

 

You've got an anomalous LLJ and an actual phasing of Nate's remnants with the low/trough.

 

Euro shows a damaging wind event

 

Oh, I see. I didn't check the Euro run, but I'm pretty sure that won't verify 156 hours out with so many synoptic and mesoscale pieces in question right now.

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7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nate goes west of NE..deep tropical feed..strong cold front..

 

You've got an anomalous LLJ and an actual phasing of Nate's remnants with the low/trough.

 

Euro shows a damaging wind event

I like how you cherry picked the 900 mb winds because the surface winds at 156 hours didn't get your :weenie: up.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Stay the course?

If we end up with some showers it would be a win, It looks like it gets shredded as it moves north.

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16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Instead of your continuous harassing..why not take a look and see what the 100th percentile dews are for the 2nd week of October and get back to us when you have an answer

Near record dew point temps with slightly AN temps in October are an interesting footnote, but as sensible weather they don't mean much. On the other hand PWAT modeling for next Monday is above 2" so that's a pretty juicy troposphere.

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On 10/4/2017 at 6:56 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Nate goes west of NE..deep tropical feed..strong cold front..

 

You've got an anomalous LLJ and an actual phasing of Nate's remnants with the low/trough.

 

Euro shows a damaging wind event

Zero wind report from SPC for yesterday and today. -shrug-

Anyway... massive SE ridge dome is breaking down by Day 10 on the GEFS, but the overall ridge pattern isn't moving out anytime soon with the exception of a trough next week.

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GW is effecting the models ... one can plainly see it - 

normally we get this sort of 300+ hour snow storm depiction out of a GFS operational run by the end of August... :arrowhead:

 

gfs_namer_336_1000_500_thick.gif

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Oh, so think of the purple areas as forcing and upward motion from tropical convection. You can see how as you go forward in time, this wave moves east. It's a reason why the Pacific will change later this month into early Novie. I'm not implying anything beyond that :lol:

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23 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe upward motion isn't the best way to say it..but it's basically forcing a pattern change.

What would that have looked in Nov 2011? All orange and red around 150W?

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16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What would that have looked in Nov 2011? All orange and red around 150W?

Probably. Lots of forcing way back in the IO eastward to Philippines.  Cold water and easterlies were pretty far west. 

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Wow. Scooter going blockbuster for November. With his monster Dec/Jan call, we might get a wire to wire deep winter landscape from Veterans Day onward. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow. Scooter going blockbuster for November. With his monster Dec/Jan call, we might get a wire to wire deep winter landscape from Veterans Day onward. 

 

 

:weenie:

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow. Scooter going blockbuster for November. With his monster Dec/Jan call, we might get a wire to wire deep winter landscape from Veterans Day onward. 

 

 

He also said big snows for Christmas, breaking the grinch streak. 

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