Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’s totally fine to be warm and snowless, being only cold and snowy is NOT the pont Wolfie. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares about larger events in what month Just give us snow in the months it can fall. Any kind of snow 

Haha, I actually find myself agreeing with you on this.

Snow.  Anytime.  We don't discriminate.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s totally fine to be warm and snowless, being only cold and snowy is NOT the pont Wolfie. 

Berg, I know the point completely.  

 

You have one model that shows a very wintry scenario, and you have another(the better model by far) showing a snoozefest.   Will pointed that out that maybe a compromise wouldn't be bad, and said phrases like Perhaps and possibly...which is exactly what I was meaning....but when I said possibly and could be etc etc you jumped all over me.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Berg, I know the point completely.  

 

You have one model that shows a very wintry scenario, and you have another(the better model by far) showing a snoozefest.   Will pointed that out that maybe a compromise wouldn't be bad, and said phrases like Perhaps and possibly...which is exactly what I was meaning....but when I said possibly and could be etc etc you jumped all over me.   

Arguing semantics now but I never jumped on you fwiw. I’m not the judge or the executioner.

 

[ORH_wxman]

There's a lot of uncertainty in the blocking...and I say this in a relative sense compared to the normal amount of uncertainty involved in a D8-14 forecast. You have one model suite (the GEFS) that goes gangbusters with the NAO blocking and western ridging...it's a deep winter pattern here for most of the final 10 days of November in that scenario. You have another model suite that only has less robust NAO blocking and a less amped PNA ridge out west....and the blocking doesn't last as long on the EPS. This scenario would be much much more toned down for any winter threats and also likely introduce a period of milder wx near the end of the month as the block breaks down and we get a flatter flow across the CONUS.

 

I would say at 12z, the Canadian ensembles were a blend between the two but skewed more toward the 00z Euro.

[WinterWolf]

No worries.  

 

At least it feels like late November/early December, and not early September as it had in previous years.

 

Lets see what the Euro shows at 12z? 

[CoastalWx]

Sneaky paste job on the euro for Lavatorial and crew up there Thursday aftn.

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Sneaky paste job on the euro for Lavatorial and crew up there Thursday aftn.

Its close.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's a lot of uncertainty in the blocking...and I say this in a relative sense compared to the normal amount of uncertainty involved in a D8-14 forecast. You have one model suite (the GEFS) that goes gangbusters with the NAO blocking and western ridging...it's a deep winter pattern here for most of the final 10 days of November in that scenario. You have another model suite that only has less robust NAO blocking and a less amped PNA ridge out west....and the blocking doesn't last as long on the EPS. This scenario would be much much more toned down for any winter threats and also likely introduce a period of milder wx near the end of the month as the block breaks down and we get a flatter flow across the CONUS.

 

I would say at 12z, the Canadian ensembles were a blend between the two but skewed more toward the 00z Euro.

It's typical to see some sort of compromise. And with the EPS height rises last night...would not shock me if it trended that way again. And the GEFS tone down that solution too.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

After already logging 30+ events by then and 125% above seasonal avg, I can see where that one could fall thru the cracks.

Yep

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sneaky paste job on the euro for Lavatorial and crew up there Thursday aftn.

Brutal!

[OceanStWx]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's a lot of uncertainty in the blocking...and I say this in a relative sense compared to the normal amount of uncertainty involved in a D8-14 forecast. You have one model suite (the GEFS) that goes gangbusters with the NAO blocking and western ridging...it's a deep winter pattern here for most of the final 10 days of November in that scenario. You have another model suite that only has less robust NAO blocking and a less amped PNA ridge out west....and the blocking doesn't last as long on the EPS. This scenario would be much much more toned down for any winter threats and also likely introduce a period of milder wx near the end of the month as the block breaks down and we get a flatter flow across the CONUS.

 

I would say at 12z, the Canadian ensembles were a blend between the two but skewed more toward the 00z Euro.

We talked a bit about it yesterday. The Pacific state is the exact type of pattern that models handle worse than usual, on average. It doesn't mean this run or that run is wrong, it just means there are bigger error bars than usual.

[OceanStWx]

Also s are stirring with that Euro run.

H7 closing off right over PWM. Could be a nice short duration blitz if we hold onto that look.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Also s are stirring with that Euro run.

H7 closing off right over PWM. Could be a nice short duration blitz if we hold onto that look.

Maybe a Mahoosucs Mauler.

[dryslot]

A little further NE up the coast from what i see but why split hairs at this point.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe a Mahoosucs Mauler.

Euro verbatim would smoke Sunday River. Almost has H9 below zero.

[wxeyeNH]

Sure interesting 12Z trends for us up in interior CNE.  4-8" paste job for the high hills of Lakes Region NH and Whites? 

[CoastalWx]

Wish we were there. 

[dryslot]

12z GFS was similar on thurs with SLP but much warmer upstairs.

[Damage In Tolland]

51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha, I actually find myself agreeing with you on this.

Snow.  Anytime.  We don't discriminate.

It’s mind boggling these snow snobs that would forego small events for a foot in Morch that starts melting as soon as it stops. It’s line buying a new car and it immediately depreciates after you drive it off the lot.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s mind boggling these snow snobs that would forego small events for a foot in Morch that starts melting as soon as it stops. It’s line buying a new car and it immediately depreciates after you drive it off the lot.

That's not the point. November is not a winter month. March is a much better month for winter events in general. Who gives a flying fook about 1" of snow that sticks to grass because the ground is warm, lasts another few more hours compared to March. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's not the point. November is not a winter month. March is a much better month for winter events in general. Who gives a flying fook about 1" of snow that sticks to grass because the ground is warm, lasts another few more hours compared to March. 

The point is.. many years winter can and does begin in Nov. whether it’s the 15th or 25th or whatever. Nov snow is great and is much better than March when you know winter is over. March snow from mid month on is nothing but a stat padder

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The point is.. many years winter can and does begin in Nov. whether it’s the 15th or 25th or whatever. Nov snow is great and is much better than March when you know winter is over. March snow from mid month on is nothing but a stat padder

Unfortunately you cannot wishcast climo. November is a more hostile month for winter wx. 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s mind boggling these snow snobs that would forego small events for a foot in Morch that starts melting as soon as it stops. It’s line buying a new car and it immediately depreciates after you drive it off the lot.

I wouldn't forgo anything, it's not a trade-off.

 You just take every flake that falls, haha.

Ill take 1.1" in Nov and 10" in March, no complaints.

[weathafella]

Each step brings my beloved snow closer to me.

[dendrite]

This snow is vaporizing just as fast as March...the subsurface soils are still warm and eat away at the pack from the bottom-up. Ginxy will be curious to know that my 6" soil temp is 42F. It'll be pushing freezing by mid Dec.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

This snow is vaporizing just as fast as March...the subsurface soils are still warm and eat away at the pack from the bottom-up. Ginxy will be curious to know that my 6" soil temp is 42F. It'll be pushing freezing by mid Dec.

Nov snow is a novelty, no bass all treble, give me those March potatoes with feet depth

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This snow is vaporizing just as fast as March...the subsurface soils are still warm and eat away at the pack from the bottom-up. Ginxy will be curious to know that my 6" soil temp is 42F. It'll be pushing freezing by mid Dec.

Thank you. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Don’t care when it falls, just has to fall with a vengance.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately you cannot wishcast climo. November is a more hostile month for winter wx. 

Yeah...for snow climo, November = April (except April actually has a higher chance for a blockbuster).

 

Anyways...OP Euro was more impressed with blocking...and a bit more impressed with western ridging...maybe we can trend that into something close to T-day and the ensuring weekend.