dryslot Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 If the 12z runs look bad, Then just wait for the 18z runs and restart the process all over again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Isn’t this bantering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 59 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I was trying to figure out the mechanism that la Nina produces the wet conditions in the northeast and southern Canada. Is it the increase in Amazonian rainfall building the southeast ridge? Maybe, yeah ... I have noticed in the past as well, Nick that when the Caribbean ridge menace is lurking and bulging and imposing higher heights as far N as TX- Bermuda (axis), there are 500 mb vectors around that anti-cyclonic motion that originate over the deep sub-tropical/tropical regions of South America. Increased rainfall --> greater latent heat release... etc.. That can then transitively/indirectly lead perhaps to more active generation of precipitating events up this way, too... ? But, there is also an interesting countermanding argument there; the increased height tendencies in the south tends to "squeeze" the gradient, and that as we know creates higher than normal geopotential balanced winds ... and that's a shearing/muting/damper to storm genesis; that sort of lends to thinking less precipitation should result. Hm. not sure. interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: A butterfly farts on the other side of the world and somewhere in Tolland an entire winter outlook gets rewritten. lol new sig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: What stood out to me was stronger ridging in the SW part of the country , which have positive ramifications for us. I would love for Las Vegas to be in the 90s with no rain and a 1050 parked in the intermountain region until April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Anyone have last night's Euro Ensemble out to 11-15 days?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Maybe, yeah ... I have noticed in the past as well, Nick that when the Caribbean ridge menace is lurking and bulging and imposing higher heights as far N as TX- Bermuda (axis), there are 500 mb vectors around that anti-cyclonic motion that originate over the deep sub-tropical/tropical regions of South America. Increased rainfall --> greater latent heat release... etc.. That can then transitively/indirectly lead perhaps to more active generation of precipitating events up this way, too... ? But, there is also an interesting countermanding argument there; the increased height tendencies in the south tends to "squeeze" the gradient, and that as we know creates higher than normal geopotential balanced winds ... and that's a shearing/muting/damper to storm genesis; that sort of lends to thinking less precipitation should result. Hm. not sure. interesting.. May lead to more cold/dry stretches during neg NAO episodes....I did note that although the east-based la nina composite featured appreciable blocking, the seasonal snowfall tallies were relatively underwhelming. May actually have better storm genesis in the absence of blocking....which would benefit the deep interior and nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Anyone have last night's Euro Ensemble out to 11-15 days?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: That's a 60 hour forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Hr 60 is d11-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Sorry...something messed up on screen cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 We'll have to watch the spokes of energy going around the ULL next week if it gets blocked up as a lot of guidance hints at...12z GFS produces a little snow event T-day out of one of the spokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 What’s the url for that? My hunch is you’re editing the url’s and forgot the “3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We'll have to watch the spokes of energy going around the ULL next week if it gets blocked up as a lot of guidance hints at...12z GFS produces a little snow event T-day out of one of the spokes. Yeah yesterday I was using the GFS op as an example on how to run an interesting pattern. Just need to get it to amplify enough, but not over our heads either. Bit of a narrow window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 And on the clown range GEFS, I would say there is a signal on the mean for something on T-Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And on the clown range GEFS, I would say there is a signal on the mean for something on T-Day. Its too bad that the Pacific is such crap right now, while the NAO is cooperative because there are some decent mid Novie events in my analog set. That is a nice storm this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its too bad that the Pacific is such crap right now, while the NAO is cooperative because there are some decent mid Novie events in my analog set. I would say the Pacific, well the Rockies to west coast area, is favorable through later next week. The GEFS setup certainly is favorable for EC cyclogenesis somewhere as depicted. Whether that happens is another story...but that's a decent look. I feel like the PAC and the -NAO both relax afterwards for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its too bad that the Pacific is such crap right now, while the NAO is cooperative because there are some decent mid Novie events in my analog set. That a nice storm this week. pac looks fine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: pac looks fine? Hes probably not liking the troughiness in the US west but yea wpo looks great and epo is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 I mean later this week....when the big storm develops. But I did say "right now"...my fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Hes probably not liking the troughiness in the US west but yea wpo looks great and epo is ok. If there were not a trough on the west coast, that big low would be under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 That "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm that has been depicted for next weekend gets weaker and flatter with each run. At this rate, it will be shown off of NJ in a few more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 And ...like we elaborated yesterday, it should - That is, if the -NAO has/had any legs. Well, low and behold, don't look now but this run of the Euro finally after like three days of denial.. depicts a negative NAO. The fact that this did this even once broke it's own stalwart continuity speaks volumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 4 hours ago, dryslot said: If the 12z runs look bad, Then just wait for the 18z runs and restart the process all over again lol 12z EPS came in a lot warmer over the CONUS. He'll root for the 18z GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: And ...like we elaborated yesterday, it should - That is, if the -NAO has/had any legs. Well, low and behold, don't look now but this run of the Euro finally after like three days of denial.. depicts a negative NAO. The fact that this did this even once broke it's own stalwart continuity speaks volumes. The euro ensembles still have a pretty good low heading by Toronto. I think the s/w itself is pretty sharp, thus causing that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z EPS came in a lot warmer over the CONUS. He'll root for the 18z GFS op. How warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Just now, LurkerBoy said: How warm? Substantially across the CONUS in the 11-15 day because we got more milder Pacific air. I wouldn't sweat every run right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Substantially across the CONUS in the 11-15 day because we got more milder Pacific air. I wouldn't sweat every run right now. Oh you know some will, Fingers hovering over the winter cancel button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Oh you know some will, Fingers hovering over the winter cancel button. Don’t do it. Give it Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Substantially across the CONUS in the 11-15 day because we got more milder Pacific air. I wouldn't sweat every run right now. Got it. Bit of fear of reverting back to the Sep/Oct pattern. Hoping we can maintain the ~avg pattern we’re in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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