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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

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On 9/16/2017 at 8:40 AM, ApacheTrout said:

They probably are doing something incredibly complex, like opening windows.

Closed to keep the dews out, open to let the cool in.

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4 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Closed to keep the dews out, open to let the cool in.

Ha yup.  My place is shut up tight right now and although it's 83F and sunny outside...it's 71F inside.  I'll open it all up once I see the temp drop this evening back into the 60s.

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha yup.  My place is shut up tight right now and although it's 83F and sunny outside...it's 71F inside.  I'll open it all up once I see the temp drop this evening back into the 60s.

People always rush to open windows which is fine with low dews, but once you let the high dews in, they linger, and stick around for good unlike the hair that used to be on Kevin's head.  

Dehumidifier does work wonders though too.

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reversal of fortune for the early cool weather enthusiasts? 

CPC PNA index numbers are quite high... and despite the late middle range (post Jose) and through Maria's approach (otherwise) giant ridge and implicit warm signal...the hemisphere on this side implodes right beyond that man - we'll see if it has legs. 

PNA starts to come back from it's slumber deeper in September and then the correlation gets important pretty quickly heading into October so... not sure I'm ready to auto dismiss its value at this time. 

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46 minutes ago, BRSno said:

No real "fall like" weather in sight other than a brief post Maria trough 

So you're saying there's some fall-like weather in sight?

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If you'd asked last weekend at this time ... I would have thought otherwise.  

Back whence there was glaring signal in both the teleconnectors and the trends of the global numerical models for the middle and extended range; the pattern was set to morph toward a colder look, doing so in short order. Pretty dramatically at that... as this present warm continental bubble was modeled to collapse abruptly and largely post Maria's hard-right injustice to storm enthusiasts.. The whole look of it was going to be different after, with repeating trough reloads, and (luckily for NON storm enthusiasts) a suggestion of a more permanent tropical season abeyance for the western hemisphere.  ...heh, maybe the tropical aspect was a hint? 

All week long, every model cycle of every day since, every nightly teleconnector computation sneakily changed said impression.  At the end of which we now have a look that suggests any seasonal appeal was a red herring ... transient at best.

The trough doesn't reload any longer. As well, it's flatter...coming in and whisking out in just two days.  The Euro is hesitant to admit it, but even it has a warm pulse careening back through the Lakes, back-side style... toward the end of the run.  Besides, the Euro has zero confidence imho beyond D 5. It's really been all over the place in those deeper ranges ...for months of verification experience; which admittedly is 'measured' verification.   Anyway, we'll see.. but it looks like the longer term signal may stay above normal ... as any cooling out there would just absorb back into the (~) 20 day averages that probably overwhelm the numbers on the plus side.

 

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Yeah I blame the tropics for this. One storm after another pumping latent heat and ridging into the mid lats of the western Atlantic. Enjoy it while it lasts.

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3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My high temperatures for the end of the week "cool down" have, over the past 2 days, creeped up 5 degrees on my NWS p/c forecast. 

I haven't been able to look at things the last several days, but whatever change in airmass we get will be welcome.

My ZFP and p/c are both calling for a high of 60* on Saturday.  In fact after the last of the hot days tomorrow (progged at 81*--expect we'll come in short), the forecasted dailiy highs are:

70*

62*

60*

65*

68*

 

Seems a bit BN.  Anything is better than the current warmth.

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7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My high temperatures for the end of the week "cool down" have, over the past 2 days, creeped up 5 degrees on my NWS p/c forecast. 

Next Wed/Thurs back into the 80's with dews

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Yeah it seems the western trough eastern ridge pattern won't give up.  If it persists for a few more weeks that would be great.  Is it a- a sign of the pattern of our early winter or b-

a pattern that will change just in time for a nice start to winter?

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3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Yeah it seems the western trough eastern ridge pattern won't give up.  If it persists for a few more weeks that would be great.  Is it a- a sign of the pattern of our early winter or b-

a pattern that will change just in time for a nice start to winter?

Keep the trough out west for now...don't want any part of it here for early October...out there, they can actually start building snowpack in the highest elevations. Out here, it's useless except for maybe some rogue flake chances. By mid/late October, we can start seeing a better chance for an accumulating event. But even then, it's usually a car-topper.

 

Euro ensembles look like they want to keep the trough centered out west through the first 10 days of Oct.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Keep the trough out west for now...don't want any part of it here for early October...out there, they can actually start building snowpack in the highest elevations. Out here, it's useless except for maybe some rogue flake chances. By mid/late October, we can start seeing a better chance for an accumulating event. But even then, it's usually a car-topper.

 

Euro ensembles look like they want to keep the trough centered out west through the first 10 days of Oct.

I am still scarred by the winter that followed the Halloween storm, so I tend to like warm falls because of a chance that they flip in November.  On the other hand, I remember that the pattern in the late summer and fall of 1995 was one of a lot of noreasters, and that pattern persisted through a good part of winter.

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28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I am still scarred by the winter that followed the Halloween storm, so I tend to like warm falls because of a chance that they flip in November.  On the other hand, I remember that the pattern in the late summer and fall of 1995 was one of a lot of noreasters, and that pattern persisted through a good part of winter.

October 2000 and October 2002 were really cold with some snow events and they turned out great. We had snow on September 30, 1992 and then got 120 inches of the following winter. I really don't tend to worry about if the autumn is cold or not. There's obviously some times where it was cold and then flipped warm in winter and then there were times when it was a furnace and stayed that way into winter. But the correlation isn't significant on a year to year basis. So I usually just root for pleasant weather these days in September and most of October.

I'd get worried if we have a frigid stratosphere over Siberia in November which often helps the AK death vortex set up. We don't want to see the death vortex setting up...

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2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

I am still scarred by the winter that followed the Halloween storm, so I tend to like warm falls because of a chance that they flip in November.  On the other hand, I remember that the pattern in the late summer and fall of 1995 was one of a lot of noreasters, and that pattern persisted through a good part of winter.

And snowfall in NY and NE into May of 1996.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd get worried if we have a frigid stratosphere over Siberia in November which often helps the AK death vortex set up. We don't want to see the death vortex setting up...

We don't?

golf-na-snijegu.gif?w=1000

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Mmm... I'm not really freaked out so much by the GOA low ...  For me, it all really boils down to east vs west vs north vs south biased EPO standard deviations.  The atmosphere can actually sustain a vortex on the plus anomaly side up in the NE Pacific and not have it necessarily mean a death blow across the lower 48. 

Granted, having one there "tends" to be bad news ... okay.  But, we get winter bombs in +NAOs in the same vein. 

Also, if the EPO is positive and the PNA is positive concurrently, that tandem state will often feature a vortex in the lower EPO domain space with ridge down stream into western N/A... that's not a bad look either.   Just don't want the wave length to lengthen over N/A while a vortex is drilling for oil up there or that will tend to offer limited resistance to chinook set ups and/or modified Pac fetid polar puke.  

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm... I'm not really freaked out so much by the GOA low ...  For me, it all really boils down to east vs west vs north vs south biased EPO standard deviations.  The atmosphere can actually sustain a vortex on the plus anomaly side up in the NE Pacific and not have it necessarily mean a death blow across the lower 48. 

Granted, having one there "tends" to be bad news ... okay.  But, we get winter bombs in +NAOs in the same vein. 

Also, if the EPO is positive and the PNA is positive concurrently, that tandem state will often feature a vortex in the lower EPO domain space with ridge down stream into western N/A... that's not a bad look either.   Just don't want the wave length to lengthen over N/A while a vortex is drilling for oil up there or that will tend to offer limited resistance to chinook set ups and/or modified Pac fetid polar puke.  

 

 

 

I'm not afraid of a GOA low either...we've done fine with them....the "Death vortex" I refer to is a strong vortex over W AK/Bering region/adjacent north into Arctic ocean...so many of warm/snowless winters have had them. 2011-2012, 2001-2002, 1999-2000, etc. That region definitely seems to be important for keeping some meridional flow into Canada...

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