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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We absolutely do. Go back and look 

For kicks, I looked at the last 10 years at CON which one might assume would get more Dec snow than NE CT. I don’t think that it is as snowy as you think. Here is a list of the first >1” snows at CON in the last 10 years:

’07 – 12/3

’08 – 12/17

’09 – 12/5

’10 – 12/26

’11 – 12/23

’12 – 12/17

’13 – 12/9

’14 – 11/26

’15 – 12/29

’16 – 12/5

 

Not exactly chock full of early season events. I mean, there are a bunch of “T”s  earlier in each season, but a “T” isn’t “snowy” IMO.

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2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

For kicks, I looked at the last 10 years at CON which one might assume would get more Dec snow than NE CT. I don’t think that it is as snowy as you think. Here is a list of the first >1” snows at CON in the last 10 years:

’07 – 12/3

’08 – 12/17

’09 – 12/5

’10 – 12/26

’11 – 12/23

’12 – 12/17

’13 – 12/9

’14 – 11/26

’15 – 12/29

’16 – 12/5

 

Not exactly chock full of early season events. I mean, there are a bunch of “T”s  earlier in each season, but a “T” isn’t “snowy” IMO.

I didn’t mean it snows every year in the first week, but it snows at least half of the years in the first 10 days of Dec if you back say 50 years or a larger sample size. Talking interior areas. 

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I didn’t mean it snows every year in the first week, but it snows at least half of the years in the first 10 days of Dec if you back say 50 years or a larger sample size. Talking interior areas. 

Oh noes, you'll miss out on 1-2" that melts in a day. How will we recover?

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What the weather is "supposed to be like" based upon individual "calculations" aside...

That 00z operational tonality brings us closer to the threshold of such apoplectic misery that folks just give and the traffic in here winnows down to crickets...  Be interesting social experiment in climate causality to human behavior, to come in here in have the last post be days old -

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1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

For kicks, I looked at the last 10 years at CON which one might assume would get more Dec snow than NE CT. I don’t think that it is as snowy as you think. Here is a list of the first >1” snows at CON in the last 10 years:

’07 – 12/3

’08 – 12/17

’09 – 12/5

’10 – 12/26

’11 – 12/23

’12 – 12/17

’13 – 12/9

’14 – 11/26

’15 – 12/29

’16 – 12/5

 

Not exactly chock full of early season events. I mean, there are a bunch of “T”s  earlier in each season, but a “T” isn’t “snowy” IMO.

I think you missed an October event in 2011. ;)

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45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'd check all of those numbers again. 2007 had 2.1" on 11/20. I stopped there since I'm on the ipad.

yeah, i rushed it a bit in my angst to prove DIT wrong. you are correct obviously about Oct 2011. i know it technically counts, but that is definately not a season in season. i did miss the '07 november event. and to icebergs point, yes CON got an inch or so post-Sandy.

to be clear, the numbers I used are not at CON itself, but the data I got from my dad's place 10 miles WNW of there.

my overall point is that the first half of December is often times not very snowy. i don't think the beginning of this season has been much different than the average November so far, and don't expect anything different in December. it is what it is.

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27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So I used the North Foster COOP,

since 1974. Of the 336 days in the Dec 1 to Dec 7th period they had 33 days with 2 inches or greater on the ground or 10% Next 7 days, 96 days with 2 or greater or 29%.

We mid month

So we have snow 10% of the time in the first week of December in the last 43 years.    

How many times can you prove the guy from Tolland wrong??  Yet he continues to think that November is a snowy month ... when the first week of December is only snowy 1/10th of the time in 43 years.  

 

I guess Perception (no matter how wrong it may be) is some people's reality...even when proven otherwise. 

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So we have snow 10% of the time in the first week of December in the last 43 years.    

How many times can you prove the guy from Tolland wrong??  Yet he continues to think that November is a snowy month ... when the first week of December is only snowy 1/10th of the time in 43 years.  

 

I guess Perception (no matter how wrong it may be) is some people's reality...even when proven otherwise. 

That's days with at least 2 on the ground. Obviously climo dictates mid Dec on is when we are most likely to see accumulating snow that sticks around.

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