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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So with the warm up trending more legit next week...we'll put a dent in those - departures. 

Still think we can finish the month below normal with post-Thanksgiving trough coming up before finishing November with few days in 50s for coastal areas of SNE.

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It won't erase the negatives. There's a pretty good cold shot for Sunday and Monday. 

Its not even clear that Wednesday is a torch either...some guidance (including the euro) has a cool down behind Tuesday's torch before it warms again on Thursday. 

The goal is to avoid a torch November. We've already succeeded. Even if you get all three days between Tuesday and Thursday at plus 10, you arent going to produce a big plus month. You might get back to near neutral.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

From a week out that’s a furnace and has been trending warmer. Look at today. 55-60. That’s a Warmer set up than today. That’s easily 60+ away from Coast influences Tues and Wed

Which models support it? I wouldn't worry too much. If it happens though it'd definitely mute the cold departures of the past couple weeks. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It won't erase the negatives. There's a pretty good cold shot for Sunday and Monday. 

Its not even clear that Wednesday is a torch either...some guidance (including the euro) has a cool down behind Tuesday's torch before it warms again on Thursday. 

The goal is to avoid a torch November. We've already succeeded. Even if you get all three days between Tuesday and Thursday at plus 10, you arent going to produce a big plus month. You might get back to near neutral.

That is what we need...if we have a normal November, even after the warm start to Autumn, we could be in good shape.

ORH is at -2.0F for the month.  Will probably end up within 0.5F or normal with those temps next week

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21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That is what we need...if we have a normal November, even after the warm start to Autumn, we could be in good shape.

ORH is at -2.0F for the month.  Will probably end up within 0.5F or normal with those temps next week

Yep...

 

I actually misspoke earlier...the cooldown is on Thursday on the Euro...though GFS has it on Wednesday. In order to get back to positive territory, we need about a cumulative +40-45 over the next 10 days. That's gonna be tough. Today will be like +5...tomorrow is maybe a +3? Then we go a couple minus days in a row basically cancelling out the plusses. Maybe a +5 or 6 on Saturday before we get blown back to solid negatives on Sunday/Monday. That leaves us 3 days basically to get +45 or so (maybe even more if Monday manages a -10 or something)....in the words of Scooter, "not happening James".

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You also have a decent Greenland ridge that will fight the flex of the SE ridge. Definitely gonna help to have latitude though. But either way...that's not a bad look. I'll take ridging out on NW Canada any day. It will definitely help to go deeper into December with that look, but I'll take it.

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Actually with the NAM and GFS, there appears a three phase set of disturbances in the flow over the central/eastern US.  A arctic upper low dives towards Ontario, Canada, followed by a northern stream (polar stream) shortwave energy moving through the Great Lakes and a southern stream (sub tropical jet) energy moving out of the Gulf of Mexico west of Florida.  Could be something big if trends continue.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You also have a decent Greenland ridge that will fight the flex of the SE ridge. Definitely gonna help to have latitude though. But either way...that's not a bad look. I'll take ridging out on NW Canada any day. It will definitely help to go deeper into December with that look, but I'll take it.

Nape weather in DC?

I’m down there next week through 12/21. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You also have a decent Greenland ridge that will fight the flex of the SE ridge. Definitely gonna help to have latitude though. But either way...that's not a bad look. I'll take ridging out on NW Canada any day. It will definitely help to go deeper into December with that look, but I'll take it.

Yeah that's a good reload of airmass into Canada I think. We can work with that. People need to remember too that snowstorms pre-12/5 are still pretty hard to get. The timing for this is looking solid.

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