40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 49 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I thought it would. Similar ideas to yours though. I got the impression that while the general sentiment regarding the overgeneralization of la Nina was one resounding commonality, he seemed even colder than I am. I really didn't get the impression that he envisioned much in the way of a relent....didn't see any positive temp departures or negative precip. anomalies for us. The difference lies in the Pacific....he is intimating that we will see +PDO season, while I am near neutral on that with a decided nod in the RNA direction as it relates to more stochastic influences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Pretty strong cold stab on ensembles around d8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 CMC has a decent coastal low for Wednesday now. Cold air lagging behind so mainly rain as depicted. GFS looks a bit closer with the offshore system as well but just scrapes eastern areas with some rain. With temps fairly mild ahead of the system it's hard to imagine anything wintry in SNE and especially down low and the coastal regions but perhaps if the storm trends stronger and the colder air works in toward the end someone could coat it up in the western high terrain especially. Like others have said, that is a nice deep trough towards day 8 but outside of the usual lake effect and upslope areas we end up mainly cold and dry as depticted currently but at least the trough is deep and the cold is there so it's worthy of perhaps watching for any changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 2 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said: CMC has a decent coastal low for Wednesday now. Cold air lagging behind so mainly rain as depicted. GFS looks a bit closer with the offshore system as well but just scrapes eastern areas with some rain. With temps fairly mild ahead of the system it's hard to imagine anything wintry in SNE and especially down low and the coastal regions but perhaps if the storm trends stronger and the colder air works in toward the end someone could coat it up in the western high terrain especially. Like others have said, that is a nice deep trough towards day 8 but outside of the usual lake effect and upslope areas we end up mainly cold and dry as depticted currently but at least the trough is deep and the cold is there so it's worthy of perhaps watching for any changes. Thanksgiving 85 I remember it was a cold heavy rain that turned into pinged fest in S Worc County; it was an awful morning for football! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 34 minutes ago, Modfan said: Thanksgiving 85 I remember it was a cold heavy rain that turned into pinged fest in S Worc County; it was an awful morning for football! I remember that well. Foxboro HS vs Mansfield HS. One of the most unpleasant sporting events I have been to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 I have to remind myself it is 11/19. At least for me anything before 12/10-15 is unexpected gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Some of the guidance has shortwaves embedded in the longwave trough over us next week. So we can't rule out a smallish event within that cold shot. I think the bigger 11/25 threat though is gone because the NAO block trended too far north and not west enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Stunning that a Novie threat failed....ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Outside of one renegade euro run and a separate GFS random was it ever really a threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Stunning that a Novie threat failed....ouch. It's too bad we're losing a wintry month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Stunning that a Novie threat failed....ouch. There was a threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 2 hours ago, weathafella said: I have to remind myself it is 11/19. At least for me anything before 12/10-15 is unexpected gravy. Mmmm...gravy....I can’t wait until Thursday. I really don’t get too hyped for winter events before 12/1 or so, nice to see early flakes and a coating, but no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 I see everyone is bored enough to twist the semantics dildo into the rear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Looking back at the pattern you could see some potential but there was never any real consistent threat. Climo was never on our side down here to begin with so it always felt like an uphill battle. At least temps have adjusted downward significantly this month and the usual suspects have enjoyed some lighter snowfalls. Now let's see how thing unfold heading into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 My post was sarcasm laden.....whoosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Everyone just throw on their full body sweatsuits and enjoy the cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everyone just throw on their full body sweatsuits and enjoy the cold pattern. Nice day coming for the Manchester Road Race and all of the antics that come with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 There was potential for a threat. But a day 9 OP run showing a snow event isn't a real threat. Otherwise we basically have a threat at day 9 for 2-3 months straight during the peak of winter. The key was always the NAO block going gangbusters...and it just doesn't appear it will do that (and it was admittedly low probability). We are definitely getting an NAO block...but you need more than just a cookie cutter Greenland block in November when the PAC isn't totally cooperative. You need a big west based monster. But this is typical. You don't generally get big events in November. We're more likely to get a little 1-3 incher from maybe an embedded shortwave that flies through within a deeper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Nice day coming for the Manchester Road Race and all of the antics that come with it. Cold day though. 30’s and wind all day . Cold for runners that aren’t used to running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Don't recall seeing it posted in your forum before, so in case you didn't know, the Euro monthly forecasts are on the weather.us site with a ton of parameters. https://weather.us/monthly-charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Models really beginning to see the +PNA ridging showing up for the end of the month into early December, I think our first chance at snow is after thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Models keying in on an anomalous upper level ridging over the western tier of the US and troughing over the eastern tier. Storm chances and snow chances depend solely upon how this trough interacts with separate shortwave disturbances in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 need to watch that southern stream upper level trough as it swings through some sub-tropical moisture at times until it moves away. It may link up with a northern stream disturbance and phase into a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Don't recall seeing it posted in your forum before, so in case you didn't know, the Euro monthly forecasts are on the weather.us site with a ton of parameters. https://weather.us/monthly-charts Those guys made a deal with the devil. Not sure how they can just throw out free data like that unless the lead site developer is sleeping with the head of the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Miser said: Nice day coming for the Manchester Road Race and all of the antics that come with it. I chose the quieter and easier venue. Running the O'Briley 5k Turkey Trot in Collinsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those guys made a deal with the devil. Not sure how they can just throw out free data like that unless the lead site developer is sleeping with the head of the ECMWF. They're adding the stratosphere and wave model data on the other site soon too. Pretty crazy what they're doing. They're giving the big middle finger to JB and JoeD'A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Some LES squalls overnight in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 ginx, you think the NAM could be showing a potential coastal storm sometime this upcoming Thursday? Could the front move through soon enough to allow snow to mix with the rain with the southern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: ginx, you think the NAM could be showing a potential coastal storm sometime this upcoming Thursday? Could the front move through soon enough to allow snow to mix with the rain with the southern stream energy. Not happening. Try again in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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