weathafella Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 No one is happy when they feel that someone is taking away their snow-no one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Just a splendid past couple days in model sh*tham thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 39 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Right... but he’s acting like he’s in the Swiss Alps with some of these posts. Nobody around here has snow climo this time of year... I don’t care if you’re in Tolland or Acushnet... it’s basically all the same at this point. Everyones November average is basically made up from years they saw snow and years they didn’t. Many more have not years. So even that 2” average or whatever is wildly misleading Lmao....Cmon Brett, you didn't know Mount Tolland has an Alpine climate? They serve Swiss Miss instant cocoa up there starting in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Pretty good gfs run as depicted, grain of salt obviously. There’s potential, we’ve discussed this plenty.....but moreso than your average potential for late novie imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pretty good gfs run as depicted, grain of salt obviously. There’s potential, we’ve discussed this plenty.....but moreso than your average potential for late novie imo. Care to elaborate Berg? Not a whole lot going on in here...so what did it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 46 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I average around 40", Brett's a few inches more on the other side of town. Not going to lie, it's funny how exact these discussions get. I mean, we're talking about a few inches over a season...debating small differences of mere inches over 3-4 months worth of accumulation seems relatively trivial. Try a 175" range within one town . Even up to 100" seasonal difference in 5 miles and 700ft difference in elevation change. Without elevation change, you'd still be looking at a foot or more of snow per mile in annual snowfall for a gradient up here. Tomorrow morning will be a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 49 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Care to elaborate Berg? Not a whole lot going on in here...so what did it show? Block sets up as the weekend system wraps up to our north. Ridge out west starts flexing a bit. Then next week you have a bunch of sw’s diving underneath it. There’s cold air around too so while nothing printed out “boom”, a northern stream dominated flow can pop a miller B inside 3-4days. I’ve never said lock and loaded monster snowstorm for all on turkey week, this is where you were wrong. Regardless how decent it looks, could still yield rainers and fropas except nne. All Im saying is that I will take this potential all the time and we should all pray before the turkey is carved that this look occurs in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 49 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lmao....Cmon Brett, you didn't know Mount Tolland has an Alpine climate? They serve Swiss Miss instant cocoa up there starting in November. If I lived there, I'd want his elevation. It may be a running joke, but he's in a relatively better spot than surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: If I lived there, I'd want his elevation. It may be a running joke, but he's in a relatively better spot than surrounding areas. Yea. It matters some in borderline events early and late in season. like down on 84 its a slurpee while he clears 2” of paste off his deck on March 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not going to lie, it's funny how exact these discussions get. I mean, we're talking about a few inches over a season...debating small differences of mere inches over 3-4 months worth of accumulation seems relatively trivial. Try a 175" range within one town . Even up to 100" seasonal difference in 5 miles and 700ft difference in elevation change. Without elevation change, you'd still be looking at a foot or more of snow per mile in annual snowfall for a gradient up here. Tomorrow morning will be a good example. I don't think there is 100' variation in elevation within a 20' radius of TAN. lol. no orographic enhancement here. all thermal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Block sets up as the weekend system wraps up to our north. Ridge out starts flexing a bit. Then next week you have a bunch of sw’s diving underneath it. There’s cold air around too so while nothing printed out “boom”, a northern stream dominated flow can pop a miller B inside 3-4days. I’ve never said lock and loaded monster snowstorm for all on turkey week, this is where you were wrong. Regardless how decent it looks, could still yield rainers and fropas except nne. All Im saying is that I will take this potential all the time and we should all pray before the turkey is carved that this look occurs in winter. Great explanation....thank you. And I agree with you about the look occurring in a more climatological favored time/winter for us. And BTW...I never said you said that about being locked and loaded...I thought you were razzing me about being uncertain...so I said if you want to make a call for next week, that's fine. I think you misunderstood me totally, and I misunderstood you as well. No big deal at all..it's forgotten:-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. It matters some in borderline events early and late in season. like down on 84 its a slurpee while he clears 2” of paste off his deck on March 30th. 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: If I lived there, I'd want his elevation. It may be a running joke, but he's in a relatively better spot than surrounding areas. What Berg said. Borderline events early and late season he does better yes. After that not so much...unless your talking about the shore obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Great explanation....thank you. And I agree with you about the look occurring in a more climatological favored time/winter for us. And BTW...I never said you said that about being locked and loaded...I thought you were razzing me about being uncertain...so I said if you want to make a call for next week, that's fine. I think you misunderstood me totally, and I misunderstood you as well. Bo big deal at all..it's forgotten:-). It’s all in good fun, nothing should be taken seriously or personal. Anytime you get pieces of energy breaking off in western canada and slinging southeast, that’s something that I can never trust a silly computer to get right. There is too large of upstream error to have any sort of accuracy downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: If I lived there, I'd want his elevation. It may be a running joke, but he's in a relatively better spot than surrounding areas. Like has been said, in super marginal events during the fringe season... he may see an inch while everyone else gets white rain. Its also important to note that it doesn’t matter much during the meat of the season. Id actually take my location over his for most of the year. We do big storms pretty well here... I’ll take having a shot at the big dog over higher average any day. That area is due for regression in big storms I think. They’ve lucked out big time. Areas just to the west and even east haven’t fared as well in big storms. March 2013 comes to mind. Maybe I’m wrong, and that is the climo there... but it seems they’ve lucked out relative to other areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I avg 60”. You guys avg 30 You moved to ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: You moved to ORH? As of Nov 1st, yes. Mar 1st he's moving to HFD/BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Like has been said, in super marginal events during the fringe season... he may see an inch while everyone else gets white rain. Its also important to note that it doesn’t matter much during the meat of the season. Id actually take my location over his for most of the year. We do big storms pretty well here... I’ll take having a shot at the big dog over higher average any day. That area is due for regression in big storms I think. They’ve lucked out big time. Areas just to the west and even east haven’t fared as well in big storms. March 2013 comes to mind. Maybe I’m wrong, and that is the climo there... but it seems they’ve lucked out relative to other areas They've def been lucky there in big storms recently...they used to get dryslotted a lot in previous big storms...or simply be too far west in a few others. That said, there's also snow retention where the elevation helps too. Those 38-40F days in the valley where its 32-35F up in the hills add up throughout the winter on snow retention. Tolland doesn't hold CAD nearly as well as the east slope of the ORH hills and doesn't get the upslope effect on easterly and northeasterl flow as much as ORH hills...so his location doesn't quite take advantage as much but there's def still some big differences during the season depending on the storm setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: You moved to ORH? ORH avg close to 70” . Many years more than you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Like has been said, in super marginal events during the fringe season... he may see an inch while everyone else gets white rain. Its also important to note that it doesn’t matter much during the meat of the season. Id actually take my location over his for most of the year. We do big storms pretty well here... I’ll take having a shot at the big dog over higher average any day. That area is due for regression in big storms I think. They’ve lucked out big time. Areas just to the west and even east haven’t fared as well in big storms. March 2013 comes to mind. Maybe I’m wrong, and that is the climo there... but it seems they’ve lucked out relative to other areas Likewise you (and me for that matter) are due to regress. We have also been lucky. I am not sure I would take your spot over Tolland. He has better retention...and I am not sure I would say you have a better shot of the big dogs. Might be some recent confirmation bias. In the 6-12 range, he would own you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: ORH avg close to 70” . Many years more than you Yeah...I'll post it again for those who need a refresher: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: ORH avg close to 70” . Many years more than you Years? Not following.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Like has been said, in super marginal events during the fringe season... he may see an inch while everyone else gets white rain. Its also important to note that it doesn’t matter much during the meat of the season. Id actually take my location over his for most of the year. We do big storms pretty well here... I’ll take having a shot at the big dog over higher average any day. That area is due for regression in big storms I think. They’ve lucked out big time. Areas just to the west and even east haven’t fared as well in big storms. March 2013 comes to mind. Maybe I’m wrong, and that is the climo there... but it seems they’ve lucked out relative to other areas You’ve been lucky in big storms . You can go 5-10 or more years there without a big storm . You’ve been spoiled . You will regress for 5-10 years here at some point. It’s inevitable. I’m by no means a great snow spot, but am in far better position than SE Mass. And for a whiner .. if I were you.. I’d worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Happy Birthday Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 It’s pretty crazy difference in wct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’ve been lucky in big storms . You can go 5-10 or more years there without a big storm . You’ve been spoiled . You will regress for 5-10 years here at some point. It’s inevitable. I’m by no means a great snow spot, but am in far better position than SE Mass. And for a whiner .. if I were you.. I’d worry Your posting is about a -5SD tonight...and that says something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Likewise you (and me for that matter) are due to regress. We have also been lucky. I am not sure I would take your spot over Tolland. He has better retention...and I am not sure I would say you have a better shot of the big dogs. Might be some recent confirmation bias. In the 6-12 range, he would own you. Oh.... I’m due for some serious regression here. I recognize that. Both can be true... he can be due for regression in big events, and I can be due for regression overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Your posting is about a -5SD tonight...and that says something. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 I like that I have the potential to receive my seasonal total in 1-2 storms. Leaves the rest of the season to do other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 hours ago, weathafella said: PVD gets 36. So it seems reasonable for Brett to be around 40? Under measured forevah, PVD is not Providence for those who don't know, it's Warwick RI on the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Under measured forevah, PVD is not Providence for those who don't know, it's Warwick RI on the bay Providence is still pretty low relative to a lot of NE...but yeah, I'd say the city is probably closer to 40 than the airport's 36 and the northern side and northwest side of city are prob another inch or two higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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