Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[dryslot]

Interesting 0z Euro run last night for the ski areas and down to the coastal plain, Euro is the only model though getting snow down in the lower elevations.

[ORH_wxman]

34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Interesting 0z Euro run last night for the ski areas and down to the coastal plain, Euro is the only model though getting snow down in the lower elevations.

I'm becoming more confident in a Mahoosuc Mauler...and up into the Baxter State Park region...it looks pretty solid. We will see how fast the system nukes out...the faster, the more chance for lower elevations to see a paste job.

[ORH_wxman]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I am not sure it's a 0% threat next week. The euro op, toss. here is why. That ULL digs into Mexico and retros on the op. I highly doubt that will happen based off of its own ensembles and GFS. So while the chance IMO is low of something T-Day....I am always a little concerned of Gulf of Mexico moisture modeled with an approach disturbance in the Plains.

A lot of guidance (including the OP Euro) has been retrograding that block into the Davis strait and back toward Hudson Bay on some runs...that is a very high-influence spot for our weather. If that actually happens, then it would not surprise me to start seeing a few more "interesting" solutions. If the block stays further east out toward Greenland, then the solutions will prob be pretty meh. Esp this time of the year...if it was mid-December, maybe a different story. The PAC is not totally cooperating during that time, so we need a pretty high-influence NAO block more than usual.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm becoming more confident in a Mahoosuc Mauler...and up into the Baxter State Park region...it looks pretty solid. We will see how fast the system nukes out...the faster, the more chance for lower elevations to see a paste job.

My thinking as well as temps start to crash back SE in the heavier snow rates as the low looks to get going along the Maine coast, What it does have going for us though is that the heaviest rate falls are going to coincide with late in the day into thurs night so temps should lower as the mid levels temps start to mix down to the surface, H95 to H9 seems to be the culprit on some of these model runs, Looked like we were +2c in that level here.

[WinterWolf]

I did notice that too about the block looking like it was heading more towards Hudson Bay...have to watch that like you said to see if that is indeed the case.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll check how it looks this wknd....not interested yet.

[wxeyeNH]

41 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Interesting 0z Euro run last night for the ski areas and down to the coastal plain, Euro is the only model though getting snow down in the lower elevations.

I'm probably too far SW for tomorrow but wondering if the heights can crash fast enough if I could flip for awhile?  It's lonely up here without any posters nearby for good anaylsis.  Looking for a cold rain with catpaws but maybe up here at elevation we could score a few inches?  Alex up at Bretton Woods could do very well....

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

My thinking as well as temps start to crash back SE in the heavier snow rates as the low looks to get going along the Maine coast, What it does have going for us though is that the heaviest rate falls are going to coincide with late in the day into thurs night so temps should lower as the mid levels temps start to mix down to the surface, H95 to H9 seems to be the culprit on some of these model runs, Looked like we were +2c in that level here.

How does this system look for Northern Aroostook Jeff...Caribou on North??  They get any snow out of it if it comes together?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

How does this system look for Northern Aroostook Jeff...Caribou on North??  They get any snow out of it if it comes together?

Looks like they get maybe 3-6 type snow on the Euro...more than that on the NAM and very little on the GFS...you prob hedge more toward the NAM/Euro for obvious reason in a setup like this. (and most setups for that matter)

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

How does this system look for Northern Aroostook Jeff...Caribou on North??  They get any snow out of it if it comes together?

Looking like they could see 3-6"+ possibly up that way out of this one depending on track.

[dryslot]

GFS looked like crap all around on this one, Weak and warm.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm probably too far SW for tomorrow but wondering if the heights can crash fast enough if I could flip for awhile?  It's lonely up here without any posters nearby for good anaylsis.  Looking for a cold rain with catpaws but maybe up here at elevation we could score a few inches?  Alex up at Bretton Woods could do very well....

It looks like that may be the case outside of some catpaws and a slushy inch or so possibly.

[Ginx snewx]

i think the EPS is struggling, from BAMWX

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The Nov 2014 storm around here was beefy...no cheese

Had 13" here, the one and only 10"+ Novie snowfall I've ever experienced, 27 years in NNJ then 44 years in Maine.  Not all that common. 
(Though each place I've lived in Maine - BGR, Ft. Kent, Gardiner, New Sharon, had recorded Nov. storms of 10" prior to 2014 but while I lived in Maine, just not while I was living where/when they occurred.)

I will say November just doesn't seem to do snowstorms.  I can rattle off like 6 Octobers with 12-18"+ storms at the mountain since 2000 but I can think of maybe 1 November for a big snow dump (2014?).  October seems to produce those wet blue snow bombs in the elevations but not November.  I can't figure out why there aren't bigger November events, especially in the mountains.  

That is kind of odd.  November averages 11F colder than October at my place, so one might think the later month would have scads of snows greater than any in the earlier.  Of my 5 largest Oct-Nov events, 2 came in Oct, and we did relatively poorly in the Octobomb.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How does this system look for Northern Aroostook Jeff...Caribou on North??  They get any snow out of it if it comes together?

When you noticed the Rex block in your model evaluations that you pointed out, you didn’t notice the snow in Maine?

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you noticed the Rex block in your model evaluations that you pointed out, you didn’t notice the snow in Maine?

I didn't look at the surface/or snowfall output..had just looked at the 500mb maps.  

[CoastalWx]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm becoming more confident in a Mahoosuc Mauler...and up into the Baxter State Park region...it looks pretty solid. We will see how fast the system nukes out...the faster, the more chance for lower elevations to see a paste job.

Wx2fish is getting excited for the mtns up there. But I agree. That is a rather dangerous look for a quick paste job.

[leo2000]

Whatever relaxation their might be here is the 11-15 day from Bamwx. 

[CoastalWx]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of guidance (including the OP Euro) has been retrograding that block into the Davis strait and back toward Hudson Bay on some runs...that is a very high-influence spot for our weather. If that actually happens, then it would not surprise me to start seeing a few more "interesting" solutions. If the block stays further east out toward Greenland, then the solutions will prob be pretty meh. Esp this time of the year...if it was mid-December, maybe a different story. The PAC is not totally cooperating during that time, so we need a pretty high-influence NAO block more than usual.

And there is that too. I just was a little suspicious of the euro behavior with the ULL in Mexico. I mean maybe....but I have serious doubts on that. We've seen it before. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm becoming more confident in a Mahoosuc Mauler...and up into the Baxter State Park region...it looks pretty solid. We will see how fast the system nukes out...the faster, the more chance for lower elevations to see a paste job.

Is wildcat in the game for that storm

[leo2000]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

i think the EPS is struggling, from BAMWX

Nice post Ginx, I totally agree with you. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, leo2000 said:

Whatever relaxation their might be here is the 11-15 day from Bamwx. 

Well the last few days wipes out the blue in the Plains.  It's more of a GOAK trough that causes milder wx to overspread a lot of NAMR. We actually will be the coolest relatively speaking. But if the EPS is right, the Pacific pattern is definitely a relaxation. There is a chance it may not be and even a small step towards the GFS would be a lot better of an outcome for us. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wx2fish is getting excited for the mtns up there. But I agree. That is a rather dangerous look for a quick paste job.

Low levels are pretty torched...so we'll need to see nuclear intensification and rate, but it's a pretty vigorous shortwave, so I could see it. But I'd prob mostly forecast snow for places like Wildcat over to SR and up to Sugarloaf.

[CoastalWx]

The problem is that the past does not predict the future. You cannot apply what happened in the past and say throw model "X" out. The wholesale pattern in NAMR is changing. So right now, I would be hesitant to toss any model. My guess is both the GEFS and EPS will come to a compromise of some sort. We just do not know if it will be more of a GEFS compromise or EPS compromise.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Low levels are pretty torched...so we'll need to see nuclear intensification and rate, but it's a pretty vigorous shortwave, so I could see it. But I'd prob mostly forecast snow for places like Wildcat over to SR and up to Sugarloaf.

Yeah was thinking maybe above 1200ft or so. It is toasty 925 and below..but big lift in the DGZ could cool the higher spots to a 32F pasty job. Anyways, just nice to see. Would be a lot more interesting a month from now.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is wildcat in the game for that storm

Yeah I think so...but even the base may struggle for a bit. We'll have to see what the guidance looks like tonight. The models are putting the snow level around 3000-3500 feet initially...now that will often sink down pretty fast if you have huge rates...and the models are often too slow to sink the snow level...but it's definitely a marginal situation.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah was thinking maybe above 1200ft or so. It is toasty 925 and below..but big lift in the DGZ could cool the higher spots to a 32F pasty job. Anyways, just nice to see. Would be a lot more interesting a month from now.

Yeah I just posted about the rates as you made this post...if we're getting 50 micobars in the DGZ, we're prob seeing snow at least down to 1500 feet regardless if the models are trying to keep it higher.

[Isotherm]

The increasingly strong PNJ will imprint on the troposphere in about 10 days, as the stratospheric low geopotential height anomalies downwell. However, I expect a rather potent constructive interference of w1 which will begin converging on the stratoapheric vortex as early as November 23rd. This, subsequently, will weaken the vortex by approximately 35-40% of its previous intensity. That downwelling process will occur concurrently with the resumption of base state LF forcing; together, this should yield the reemergence of both a high latitude blocking signal and Aleutian ridging by later in the first week of December or the second week. I don't expect the models to reflect that for another several days mimimum.

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

The increasingly strong PNJ will imprint on the troposphere in about 10 days, as the stratospheric low geopotential height anomalies downwell. However, I expect a rather potent constructive interference of w1 which will begin converging on the stratoapheric vortex as early as November 23rd. This, subsequently, will weaken the vortex by approximately 35-40% of its previous intensity. That downwelling process will occur concurrently with the resumption of base state LF forcing; together, this should yield the reemergence of both a high latitude blocking signal and Aleutian ridging by later in the first week of December or the second week. I don't expect the models to reflect that for another several days mimimum.

By W1 I assume you mean something of a GOAK type trough deal?

[CoastalWx]

LMAO, the gfs changes later next week. Ice box into the Plains.