Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro ensembles still have a pretty good low heading by Toronto. I think the s/w itself is pretty sharp, thus causing that track. 

well...I wasn't referring to just that track ... the whole operational run is more supportive of blocking/curvi-linear buckling in the D. Straight region and actual ridge node there.

It may ultimately not matter ... but the operational Euro's handling of the NAO has been a bit of an experiment for me as I've been straw-man arguing. heh.

By the way folks, the wave coming on board out west near lower BC might want to be watched on the 00z guidance. It's been charged a bit on this GFS fantasy as though a more physical sampling - assuming there is something there - is making the wave more important.   As is, that's really close to clipping eastern zones with exit dynamics on Friday later this week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It kind of makes you wonder whether the loading pattern biases the models.   It kind of suggests 11-15 may be too cold given the current pattern and it may be warmer than advertised before the reload.

But Jerry, isn't Ginxy's post saying just the opposite??  Models are failing to see the cold coming in the longer range the last couple weeks.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My point is verification now was initialized in the midst of the very warm pattern 2weeks ago.

I am becoming convinced that there is going to be an Archambault event around here. Probably rain on the coast as that's our climo but not far inland this could get interesting in the next 7 to 10 days

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Interestingly, CMC ensembles kind of split the difference on the 0Z guidance.  Maybe that’s the best approach?

Yeah not a bad split there. EC is just meh. The other guidance at least offers interesting wx. The 00z EPS did trend higher with heights out west, and looked like it was trying to reload towards the end of the run. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

agree with Steve (or whomever that/those was/were) that there is an emerging A. signal in the last 10 days of the month.  

it's been lurking in the GEF's derivatives for awhile now ... Last night's computations make that signal the loudest it's been to date, indicating a +2 SD PNA recovery at both agencies between now and the 23rd of the month, and lingering (still) out there, which may add to some sort of restoring event(s), the NOA is also actively switching into negative mode during that 18th - 25th time frame (we've beaten that horse to a pulp already). Getting to +D(PNA)/ -NAO in doing so probably should send an opportunity or two through the eastern continent. 

With our luck...we'll rain blithely avoiding what people want while still not violating the theoretical implications of these teleconnector modalities... Science wins, everyone is miserable ... goal achieved. just so that nimrods blame the theoretician/method for their cryo- misfortune... but, at least the chances look better for SOMEthing in that time frame.  Seems we've broken the monotony of a warm pattern right into a "cancel out pattern" ... 

Sarcasm aside, I still like the take away as we've gotten deeper into this month, re the -EPO witnessed. The frigid (relatively so..) air mass that transpired recently was pretty much delivered right off that. i mean if there can be such a thing as an omen in this crazy hobby ... it's probably better that happened than did not.

How about the cold in Alaska D6-10 in the oper. Euro.  oy... -30 C at 850

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The look under the block looks too explosive not to spark something. 

I agree.  You would think something should and would pop. 

 

But, we've all seen nice set ups that yield nothing....this just may be one of those here, as unfortunate as that sounds; that has to be taken into consideration so as to keep expectations in check.  Hopefully it's not though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I agree.  You would think something should and would pop. 

 

But, we've all seen nice set ups that yield nothing....this just may be one of those here, as unfortunate as that sounds; that has to be taken into consideration so as to keep expectations in check.  Hopefully it's not though.

You and your “hopefully but maybe not, possible yet possibly not, I dunno it could or it could not”. I never know what you truly believe in lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You and your “hopefully but maybe not, possible yet possibly not, I dunno it could or it could not”. I never know what you truly believe in lol.

I truly believe that nobody really knows Berg....that's it in a nutshell.   It's been that way since this science began, I don't know what's so hard to understand about that?  I agreed with your statement that something should pop.  But it doesn't mean it will...and that's the point.  Simple idea there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I truly believe that nobody really knows Berg....that's it in a nutshell.   It's been that way since this science began, I don't know what's so hard to understand about that?  I agreed with your statement that something should pop.  But it doesn't mean it will...and that's the point.  Simple idea there.

cab0cf9ab913ec2413fe1fe4a7f884c7.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some on here are going top have to be placed in a rubber room before we even reach Met winter, I would suggest take a couple steps back from the daily roller coaster ride on the guidance and let it play out over the next couple weeks before obsessing over every run and who on twitter says what and where.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...