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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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Caution is always a good idea...whether things look good or bad.  Just a couple days ago we had the doom and gloomers saying that the month of November was gonna be a furnace, and winter was toast... see how foolish that looks now with current modeling doing a 180.  

 

No doubt it's nice to see good things being modeled, rather than not. 

 

Hopefully we can cash in on some early chances going forward...

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4 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

What about the EPO seems the charts lose it later on in the extended going positive?. I heard from another forum post too I think the New York one that the East Pacific a vortex shows up?. 

It turns into a big -WPO. That is still decent for cold loading but not as good as the EPO is. The WPO block can make Alaska cold too...but if you throw a -NAO in with a -WPO it will help shunt the cold southeast across Canada and perhaps into our region. 

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A good example of a big -WPO/-NAO pattern was December 2010. Potent La Niña too and big time -PNA but the southeast US of all places had record cold that month because of the NAO blocking. Granted the NAO blocking was extreme but it's an example of how it can tilt the pattern. You still had cold loading into Canada from the WPO ridge. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The other nice thing is that the 50mb vortex on the EPS is about as disturbed as I've seen it the last couple of years. It may be just temporary...but it's good to see a few punches thrown its way. 

This is what I referenced to earlier, that Judah saw this coming....5 years ago :lol: You can see on the last couple panels how it loosens its grip and disperses it’s energy southward. Could be false or it could be short lived, hope not. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is what I referenced to earlier, that Judah saw this coming....5 years ago :lol: You can see on the last couple panels how it loosens its grip and disperses it’s energy southward. Could be false or it could be short lived, hope not. 

We are sort of due for some blockiness. Maybe not 2010 style...but it's been awhile. Now to try and get this to continue into December when climo gets much more favorable.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We are sort of due for some blockiness. Maybe not 2010 style...but it's been awhile. Now to try and get this to continue into December when climo gets much more favorable.

Yea. Well, good thing is it’s late Nov as modeled and that may get pushed back, if it happens at all. The difference between the first and last week of Novie climo is pretty big so. I know you know. It’s pretty good timing imo, at least we’re not seeing it show up on March 30th. 

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58 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That still doesn’t mean snow in most cases this time of year outside of NNE. Just something to keep in perspective.

 

Good thing I didn't say anything about snow. With cold, snow will come. It's only a matter of time.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I flipped in September but unfortunately the weather didn’t. You got your extended summer. It’s time to flip the scripts 

I think this is the perfect time to start getting colder... we got a lot of excellent weather to be outdoors this fall and now all the sudden we are going to take a quick steep plunge into some cold at the end of the first week of November. 

The *only* reason to have October below normal is because you hope it might help out the upcoming winter, but otherwise, given where Climo is in October, below normal still isn't enough usually.  Now heading towards mid-November, below normal means a snow column for more folks.  Great time to flip a switch and we can hopefully take advantage of some of these modeled cold plunges.

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I think it's worth noting that snow pack across northern United States and Canada is a lot better this fall than it was last fall. Looking into the climate data, last November was also warm and y'all still ended up with a decent winter (especially NNE). In fact, I'm liking the look of this upcoming winter if we're establishing the cold source better this year.

 

snowpack.png

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I raked Saturday, and I'm not sure I have ever seen a blanket of egg corns so thick-

Anyway, cold front rushed through here at about 645 with a rush of wind just before my meeting.

Walked out to clearing skies and a notable brisker appeal.

It's unreal. I killed myself yesterday.

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