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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I am making up my own "box" to correlate winters. It will be called The Pacific Defecation Oscillation. A +PDO consists of below normal heights encompassing the Bering Sea through the waters west of British Columbia. That will correlate to a sh*tty winter here.

Mine is pretty simple too:

:pimp:=:snowing:=:weenie:

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Both “sides” can turn out right this year though. It could be a torch (ratters win) and a rogue couple weeks gives most of us above snowfall (snow weenies win). lol.

We can say that extreme weather has increased in GW, the flip from torch to deep winter, and vis versa, can happen moreso then typical climate data suggests. We can crunch all the numbers and look at all the factors include all the texhnology, but it’s still an unperfect scientific guess to start.....then ice the cake with GW. 

I’m just hoping for a winter that is longer than 2-3weeks.   It seems like those happen more often lately.   

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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

As per Fisher

So what are our warmest autumns on record? 2011, 1931, 2015, 1946, 2007, 2001, 2016, 1953, 1999, and 1961 (in order of warmest). You’ll also notice that if this year holds on, we’ll have 4 of the Top 10 in this decade alone. If you’ve had a feeling that we’ve had a lot of warmth post-summer lately, you’re right!

If you look at the Boston snowfall totals in the winter that followed all these autumns, the numbers are pretty paltry. Some of our least snowy winters on record, in fact. For instance, 2011-12 was the year without a winter…a mere 9.3″ of snow in Boston. Didn’t even have to put a lawn chair out to save a parking spot. Just 18.4″ fell in 1931-32, and 19.4″ in 1946-47. Last year had average snowfall (47.6″) but it didn’t feel like it considering it was the 4th warmest winter on record. 2001-02 came in with only 15.1″.

An exception to the list was 2007-08, which was a hearty winter with solid snowfall. Boston received 51.2″ and interior New England did very well. We also had a very warm October in 1995, which was proceeded by our snowiest winter on record (until the 2014-15 season

One of the local stations up here did something similar, but just with Septembers so obviously a weaker correlation. But the end results was 70% above normal snowfall winters followed, with half of those being over 90" for PWM (normal 62").

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The CAR WFO had some interesting comparisons to the record warmth....

Quote

Most places in New England had a record warm October. How warm was it? The observed October temperatures in Northern Maine were about what would be average for Central Pennsylvania, and for Downeast, it was about what would be average for Northern Maryland.

They also have the rankings for warmest October and Sept-Oct combo.

October rankings...widespread #1.

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