WinterWolf Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 28 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t get the proclamation one way or another at this point. It would not be unusual to have good and bad periods this winter. What has to happen to tilt it good/bad is to cash in or not during the good patterns. I’m pretty confident the Pacific cooperates. Getting the North Atlantic in our side is the difference between ok to less than ok vs good to great. I agree Jerry. Hope your feeling better/doing well after your procedure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 I also don’t recall anyone calling for a big SNE winter. All I am saying is that warm SNE autumns tend to produce warm winters with low snowfalls. Not ironclad. November could develop a pattern favorable going forward. I see nothing to prevent that. But...if I were a betting man, I would take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Gfs says what cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs says what cold shot. The GFS..that is your problem right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Just now, Rtd208 said: The GFS..that is your problem right there. What’s it say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 It really symbolically could not be interpreted any other way... it was on purpose. haha. this whole run - jesus wow. Anyway it rolls out the -EPO pattern and replaces it with a variation that looks remarkably similar to the dread described by Will, earlier, ...having never exposed the east to any meaningful cold after some two solid weeks of negative index values... So no matter what the indexes are, warm - got it. This run is more humorous than anything else for me. There's plenty of cold around...in fact, Canada's actually steeped in negaitve departures much of the time, but it's just idiosyncrasies are in space and time across the modeled days just sort of wrong the whole way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: What’s it say? It cancels entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It cancels entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It really symbolically could not be interpreted any other way... it was on purpose. haha. this whole run - jesus wow. Anyway it rolls out the -EPO pattern and replaces it with a variation that looks remarkably similar to the dread described by Will, earlier, ...having never exposed the east to any meaningful cold after some two solid weeks of negative index values... So no matter what the indexes are, warm - got it. This run is more humorous than anything else for me. There's plenty of cold around...in fact, Canada's actually steeped in negaitve departures much of the time, but it's just idiosyncrasies are in space and time across the modeled days just sort of wrong the whole way. I want to feel like I understand this. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 In all seriousness, looks more like the ensembles. Surprise surprise. Still a cold shot, just not record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I also don’t recall anyone calling for a big SNE winter. All I am saying is that warm SNE autumns tend to produce warm winters with low snowfalls. Not ironclad. November could develop a pattern favorable going forward. I see nothing to prevent that. But...if I were a betting man, I would take the under. I think this is a pretty reasonable post. What happens as we move forward this month is really important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Hopefully the euro follows suit. I'm not ready for 32/15 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think this is a pretty reasonable post. What happens as we move forward this month is really important Meh, all you need to do is look back to 2015. Next to nothing as we got towards the last week of January, than all hell broke loose and we ended up with ~120". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Meh, all you need to do is look back to 2015. Next to nothing as we got towards the last week of January, than all hell broke loose and we ended up with ~120". Yup. You can get a good period during a bad overall regime. One good week can really turn the tide. Even one big storm can get you out of the rat pack and into something g decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Canadian with a nice snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Euro op might even be a bit colder than 00z lol. Some of it may be timing differences, but a hell of a brief shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Above normal November: 2016 AOA snow: 2016-17. But typically the weather in November the winter will remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I also don’t recall anyone calling for a big SNE winter. All I am saying is that warm SNE autumns tend to produce warm winters with low snowfalls. Not ironclad. November could develop a pattern favorable going forward. I see nothing to prevent that. But...if I were a betting man, I would take the under. A warm October just doesn't mean much, Dave. Need to see how November shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A warm October just doesn't mean much, Dave. Need to see how November shakes out. Just shake the weenie after a tinkle , Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A warm October just doesn't mean much, Dave. Need to see how November shakes out. I know that, Ray. Warm Sept, Oct, Nov and we might have a problem. Still too early to tell, but I’m leaning below normal snowfall in SNE and above normal temps. We could always have a crappy December and then make it up later on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 October 1995 was very warm...and we did pretty well that winter. But I fear the SE ridge flexing itself too much. We could use that to our advantage like last year, but typically we get shafted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Meh, all you need to do is look back to 2015. Next to nothing as we got towards the last week of January, than all hell broke loose and we ended up with ~120". Absolutely! things can change on a dime...and many times do...for the good or the bad. There's no golden rule in anything meteoroligically speaking...especially in New England. We've seen warm autumns produce big time during the upcoming winters, and we've seen just the opposite also. Have to see how things play out this month. And even then it's not ironclad either. But that's the fun...you never know? Like Dave said...one big whopper can put you up for the whole season if it's a duzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 watching the difference between these model runs, both within their own failing continuity, and with respect to one another ..it all hearkens to a unmanned fire-hose with the mean polar boundary. The stuff in the west appears better anchored from run to run, but the models are flopping the down stream all over the countryside. Minnesota cutters to coastals, to nothing at all ... the cornucopia results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 I am curious what the EPS members do after Veteran's Day. The euro op has a pretty good low wrap up to the west, but the EPS seems like it has some colder members, based on the mean. Bit of a weak Hudson bay ridge as the occurs. Anyways, that's la-la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Meh, all you need to do is look back to 2015. Next to nothing as we got towards the last week of January, than all hell broke loose and we ended up with ~120". I've always thought if you average 50-60" or less, you always have a shot at an average year even if you punt entire months. A good few week period and we'll timed shortwaves can get you to average awfully fast. Once you are 80-120"+ a season, it obviously becomes harder to get that if you lose entire months waiting for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I've always thought if you average 50-60" or less, you always have a shot at an average year even if you punt entire months. A good few week period and we'll timed shortwave can get you to average awfully fast. Once you are 80-120"+ a season, it obviously becomes harder to get that if you lose entire months waiting for winter. So True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Canadian with a nice snowstorm lol Maybe it can phase with that late season cane and give us a BECS. Seems perfectly plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Absolutely! things can change on a dime...and many times do...for the good or the bad. There's no golden rule in anything meteoroligically speaking...especially in New England. We've seen warm autumns produce big time during the upcoming winters, and we've seen just the opposite also. Have to see how things play out this month. And even then it's not ironclad either. But that's the fun...you never know? Like Dave said...one big whopper can put you up for the whole season if it's a duzy. 9 out of the top 10 warm met autumns have been ratters in Boston. With Sept and Oct being torches, we need November to be chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm still mostly focusing on the N PAC. We may finish November warm, but if it because we had a -EPO pattern with a trough folding underneath it into a deep PAC NE trough then that is not as alarming as getting a warm November from a vortex in AK. One reason that above normal novembers are generally bad is because they tend to occur due to a large AK/Bering vortex...and that tends to precede winters where the vortex is dominant up there. If we are getting an above avg November due to the nuanced -EPO pattern then I won't be as worried. There is still plenty of time for all outcomes...though I think a positive EPO type pattern dominating November is becoming unlikely. What do you think about the index to which Chuck first alluded back in September in his -NAO thread in the main forum? I understand that, for better or worse, he's been all over the place with his thoughts lately, but having been a member on these forums for a decade and a half, I've always known him to be a good contributor to our discussions. Should we place any stock (his?) index? 42 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 9 out of the top 10 warm met autumns have been ratters in Boston. With Sept and Oct being torches, we need November to be chilly Seems like this is better rephrased as "we need November to feature a subdued SE ridge and a complete absence of the AK death vortex, regardless of local temp departures," no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 50 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 9 out of the top 10 warm met autumns have been ratters in Boston. With Sept and Oct being torches, we need November to be chilly Do you have those years? The only Boston ratters going back to 2000 are 2001-02, 2006-07, 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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