Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

American Meteorological Society is what the acronym alludes to...but I think what that is referring to is a computer-generated simulation of exactly how the atmosphere will play out.

pretty obvious pun i thought - oh well ...

[ORH_wxman]

Cold GFS run late next week...first legit arctic shot on that run...-23C 850s for the picnic tables and -18C for SNE.

Obviously I'm skeptical we actually get that cold as other guidance hasn't really shown it yet at that magnitude, but either way it does look like we will have our first day of highs sub-40F most likely (at least for high terrain)....if the GFS comes true then maybe sub-freezing.

[scoob40]

32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It is kind of a short lived cold shot so I won't be surprised as the models moderate those temperatures  over the next few days. 

Either way it will be nice to get more seasonable cold and fire uu the woodstove for the first time this season.

Might have to turn the heat on for the first time as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cold GFS run late next week...first legit arctic shot on that run...-23C 850s for the picnic tables and -18C for SNE.

Obviously I'm skeptical we actually get that cold as other guidance hasn't really shown it yet at that magnitude, but either way it does look like we will have our first day of highs sub-40F most likely (at least for high terrain)....if the GFS comes true then maybe sub-freezing.

Yeeeeah, ...far from sold to put it nicely..

I have been needling and annoying via phone IM, a met friend of mind unaffiliated with the forum.. how the party was supposed to be over when the wind bomb moved off and the front came through earlier in the week. 

Here we are not hardly 2.5 days later and it's warmer than it has been in over a month ...at least in my range or rt. poop.  I got 77 here now... DP of 59, too - like... in November is getting ludicrous. Willing to call a spade a spade here...  it's not imby either...it's like this up and done the EC and eastern OV

Point being, I wonder when the party really IS over...  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

42 minutes ago, scoob40 said:

Might have to turn the heat on for the first time as well.

 Our heat has definitely popped on a few times already this year but have not fired up the stove yet...

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeeeeah, ...far from sold to put it nicely..

I have been needling and annoying via phone IM, a met friend of mind unaffiliated with the forum.. how the party was supposed to be over when the wind bomb moved off and the front came through earlier in the week. 

Here we are not hardly 2.5 days later and it's warmer than it has been in over a month ...at least in my range or rt. poop.  I got 77 here now... DP of 59, too - like... in November is getting ludicrous. Willing to call a spade a spade here...  it's not imby either...it's like this up and done the EC and eastern OV

Point being, I wonder when the party really IS over...  

As long as we keep getting these deep trough episode "folding" back underneath the EPO ridge, I think we can expect periodic SW flow warmth episodes....esp as the wavelengths are still relatively short right now...I'm sure you agree that as they lengthen, we'll probably see more cold bleeding over the top of a more drawn out gradient pattern and the ridge gets shunted more to the SE US and east into the Atlantic in the means. But we'll see...it's def been pretty deep with the troughs out west. Seattle had snow this morning...pretty early in the season to get snow that low out there.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro actually wants to play ball with the cold shot...not quite as drastic as the GFS, but it gets -18C into NNE and -16C into SNE.

 

I'm not buying that type of cold yet, but at least it's something pseudo-wintry to track this early.

[Hazey]

Has a late bloomer that crushes the eastern maritimes too. We take.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

As long as we keep getting these deep trough episode "folding" back underneath the EPO ridge, I think we can expect periodic SW flow warmth episodes....esp as the wavelengths are still relatively short right now...I'm sure you agree that as they lengthen, we'll probably see more cold bleeding over the top of a more drawn out gradient pattern and the ridge gets shunted more to the SE US and east into the Atlantic in the means. But we'll see...it's def been pretty deep with the troughs out west. Seattle had snow this morning...pretty early in the season to get snow that low out there.

oh sure...  hell, my tone in that was a bit tongue in cheek, of course. 

you know (humor) it's like the pattern is cold but is engineering a way to not be cold specifically and targeted here - i think if i had never posted that that are best hope for early season antics was between the 5th and the 12th, this would not be happening. 

oh wait - it's not the 5th yet.   

[Typhoon Tip]

it'll go one of two ways ...  either it'll get longer on each end and really become a meaningful intra-monthly signal... Or, it'll normalize out to be a day or 43 highs that flurries and packing pellets when a virga strewn elevated squall moves over (which i kind of like that sort of wood-smoke day but that's a different discussion...). 

if it gets the longer version going than we'll look for other -

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Would be nice to time it with a storm.. but beggars can’t be choosers . At least the warm pattern is over 

[Whineminster]

I don't mind being warm until Thanksgiving....better not to blow our load on all the cold now, get all the warmth out of the way first so winter can stay cold. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I don't mind being warm until Thanksgiving....better not to blow our load on all the cold now, get all the warmth out of the way first so winter can stay cold. 

heh, that's 1989 ... that year was frustrating...  I was just starting classes and numbing my way to the train station to make them on time ... circa 7 am, walking in 30 mph 10 F stuff...   We got clocked with a white giving but december flipped and I think it was over by early January that year.  but there's other years like that - 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I don't mind being warm until Thanksgiving....better not to blow our load on all the cold now, get all the warmth out of the way first so winter can stay cold. 

I'm all set with a very warm Novie and October couplet in a la nina season.

Pass-

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm all set with a very warm Novie and October couplet in a la nina season.

Pass-

Yeah.... people can keep their warm November.... not sure it means anything good for our winter.

this weather blows 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm all set with a very warm Novie and October couplet in a la nina season.

Pass-

Yup. Folks don’t get it. Those 2 months are warm and we fooked 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was all set with October warmth, but could tolerate it bc it doesn't mean anything.

Novie warmth, too?

No bueno.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. Folks don’t get it. Those 2 months are warm and we fooked 

Looks solidly above normal for a while too. 

Not good. No spin needed

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. Folks don’t get it. Those 2 months are warm and we fooked 

True.  October doesn’t mean much but we’re in crunch time now.  We need a non warm November.  It doesn’t have to be cold-just can’t be a torch.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks solidly above normal for a while too. 

Not good. No spin needed

It actually doesn’t.   Remember climo.   First half looks up and down and near or slightly above or below.  Today’s climo for BOS is 56/42.

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh, that's 1989 ... that year was frustrating...  I was just starting classes and numbing my way to the train station to make them on time ... circa 7 am, walking in 30 mph 10 F stuff...   We got clocked with a white giving but december flipped and I think it was over by early January that year.  but there's other years like that - 

1989 was ridiculous from about mid-Nov through the end of December...coldest December on record by a mile for just about every New England site...it crushed the 2nd place coldest December by about 3F. Then the rest of winter was a massive torch. Though we still did get some well-timed snow events in Jan/Feb.

 

I'd def be concerned about this season if we keep torching all November, but I'm think we'll get our share of cold shots. We have the EPO/WPO regions on our side, and it's the N PAC in November that seems to have a high correlation to winter...our temperatures are obviously a proxy to that, but I'd rather focus on the source itself over the proxy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, Noive features the most drastic drop in climo from start to finish.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

I don't mind being warm until Thanksgiving....better not to blow our load on all the cold now, get all the warmth out of the way first so winter can stay cold. 

lol not sure it works like that.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

True.  October doesn’t mean much but we’re in crunch time now.  We need a non warm November.  It doesn’t have to be cold-just can’t be a torch.

Definitely some statistical evidence of AN Oct and Nov is not a good sign.  

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, Noive features the most drastic drop in climo from start to finish.

ORH at 1,000 feet doesn't fall below an average high of 50F until November 12th I believe. It's easy to get into winter mode mentally a little prematurely in November because we do see some pretty winter-esque cold shots at times and the legit threat of some snow every once in a while....but it's really a pretty mild first couple weeks. It does drop quickly though...by the end of the month, the avg high is 41F at ORH.

 

That said, the first few days of this month are clearly a torch...but we'll probably fall back pretty hard on the departures over the next week to 10 days.

[WxBlue]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1989 was ridiculous from about mid-Nov through the end of December...coldest December on record by a mile for just about every New England site...it crushed the 2nd place coldest December by about 3F. Then the rest of winter was a massive torch. Though we still did get some well-timed snow events in Jan/Feb.

 

I'd def be concerned about this season if we keep torching all November, but I'm think we'll get our share of cold shots. We have the EPO/WPO regions on our side, and it's the N PAC in November that seems to have a high correlation to winter...our temperatures are obviously a proxy to that, but I'd rather focus on the source itself over the proxy.

That December dumped 6-12 inches of snow over Charleston, SC area with 18+ inches spots barely across the border along the coast of southeast North Carolina. My family still have pictures of devastated towns around Charleston with widespread snow-coated damage from Hurricane Hugo. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

That December dumped 6-12 inches of snow over Charleston, SC area with 18+ inches spots barely across the border along the coast of southeast North Carolina. My family still have pictures of devastated towns around Charleston with widespread snow-coated damage from Hurricane Hugo. 

Wasn't that like on Christmas eve or something too? I thought I remember it being right before Xmas.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Panic sets in from a few torch days to start the month. 

[WxBlue]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wasn't that like on Christmas eve or something too? I thought I remember it being right before Xmas.

Yup! Started very late on the 22nd, with snow falling on the 23rd mostly. Charleston also recorded the coldest high temperature of 20th century at 20 degrees Fahrenheit. 

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989

[Lava Rock]

Flurries in the forecast for next Friday


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