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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'd be hard pressed to find a month with good ridging in the EPO region that ended up a torch in the northern tier of the CONUS. December 1998 might be the closest example but that month got cold in a lot of the northwest....unlike what the CFS is showing.

 

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'd be hard pressed to find a month with good ridging in the EPO region that ended up a torch in the northern tier of the CONUS. December 1998 might be the closest example but that month got cold in a lot of the northwest....unlike what the CFS is showing.

It could be under-bleeding the sfc cold south but the 500mb pattern definitely implies a considerably farther north gradient than 2007. The gradient is super intense.  Its an interesting and odd look.    

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55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nickles and Dimes like you preached in 15...preached that all the way to a Blizzard lol....Maybe you can do the same this year?  Keep harping to not plan on a snowy year...maybe the reverse happens again.

All we’re saying is don’t be too quick to buy into some of these ideas on here that a great cold snowy winter is coming. Enter that cave at own risk 

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

 

It could be under-bleeding the sfc cold south but the 500mb pattern definitely implies a considerably farther north gradient than 2007. The gradient is super intense.  Its an interesting and odd look.    

Yeah that's kind of what I was getting at...there's probably something incorrect in the pattern it depicts...either it's not dropping the heights far enough south in response to the EPO and Aleutian ridging...or it isn't low enough with the heights in AK. It definitely looks weird. Either way I probably wouldn't put too much stock in it yet.

Dec '84 is kind of a decent match to the CFS, but again, a lot of cold got into the n plains and PAC NW...it's hard to find a year where you had the ridging up into the EPO/Bering Strait region and also had above normal heights across all the CONUS...I can't find one yet.

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All we’re saying is don’t be too quick to buy into some of these ideas on here that a great cold snowy winter is coming. Enter that cave at own risk 

Who said it was going to a cold and snowy winter?  And who is "We're?"   You're the only one(or one of the very few here) who is poo-pooing the winter that isn't here yet.  I am not thinking it's going to be an above normal snow season.  But I'm also not worried it's going to be a below one either.  So perhaps you should be the one to not be too quick to buy into the ratter idea as well?

 

I'll take a normal snow season...that's fine with me.

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Interesting look on the medium range Euro....it folds the EPO block over so much that it actually becomes sort of a PNA ridge in western Canada....that makes the flow a lot more meridional in the east so this run will probably be a lot colder for next weekend.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting look on the medium range Euro....it folds the EPO block over so much that it actually becomes sort of a PNA ridge in western Canada....that makes the flow a lot more meridional in the east so this run will probably be a lot colder for next weekend.

Yeah with a well timed s/w moving south of the region, some folks might see their first flakes. The period is worth watching 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So far, no signs of the one eyed weenie over AK. All I need to see to start Novie. 

Yeah I take that as a good sign...in several winters, we started seeing it show up consistently in late November...not everytime, but quite a few of the ratters. So as long as we don't see it, it sort of loads the dice for me...if we can eliminate some of the ratter progressions, then we are naturally left with a better array of evolutions to choose from.

Unfortunately though, in New England, we just don't have a lot of "golden nugget" type index numbers or ENSO states that scream above average or below average snow...maybe weak Nino says go above avg in SNE and strong Nino says go below average most spots...strong Nina isn't the greatest either. But otherwise, it's kind of just "sit back and see how the chips fall"...we're close to the battle zone in a lot of these influencing variables. All else equal, we def want a -AO...but as we've seen many times in the past, we can survive without it. The two La Ninas that come to mind where "we got away with it" are '75-'76 and '07-'08 (which admittedly was uglier down in CT/RI). '74-'75 was also not all that bad in the interior.

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30 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Local mets here on WGME13 did there winter forecast, Typical La Nina similar to last year, Above avg snow with slightly above temps, Early start late finish is there call.

Nothing wrong with that idea if it works out!! That sounds great!!   

 

Hope it starts early too...especially in Maine.   Hoping N. Aroostook gets the goods by Xmas this year like they did last year....got a New Sled to pick up in Caribou on 12/26, and would love to be able to break her in that week while I'm up there!!   

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