Hazey Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Could be active with that look. Troughing nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: DIT starting with the reverse psychology early this season. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 The cfs has been pretty consistent for whatever it's worth in keeping the coldest air in Canada through the winter with strong EPO/WPO ridging. Raging +ao/nao maintains a very stout north-south gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Sounds La Nina'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Sounds La Nina'ish It is. But last year wasnt like that. The cold anomalies weren't found throughout Canada...only in BC basically. And the ao nao sign is relatively independent of the ENSO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The cfs has been pretty consistent for whatever it's worth in keeping the coldest air in Canada through the winter with strong EPO/WPO ridging. Raging +ao/nao maintains a very stout north-south gradient. It would be very bad for storm enthusiasts ... I mean going by basic design - if we end up with cold dumps into James Bay, while the entire girdle of the hemispheric heights keeps it suspended at that latitude, the end result is a more of that crazy hyper velocity wind that doesn't give anything south of there room to amplify. The older I get,...the more often I come back to this... You want at minimum neutral AO and EPOs that vacillate between negative and neutral as the base-line behavior. I am not even worried so much about the PNA in that circumstance (as much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It is. But last year wasnt like that. The cold anomalies weren't found throughout Canada...only in BC basically. And the ao nao sign is relatively independent of the ENSO state. 2007-08 was more of a gradient pattern which without looking sounds similar, Just want to be on the right side of it if its going to be a tight one, The raging +AO/NAO is troublesome though if its even right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: 2007-08 was more of a gradient pattern which without looking sounds similar, Just want to be on the right side of it if its going to be a tight one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: You didn't grab the last part of my post, But that look is not a good one, But last winter the CFSv2 did not do well if my memory is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You didn't grab the last part of my post, But that look is not a good one, But last winter the CFSv2 did not do well if my memory is right. I don't remember looking at it too much last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 CFS would be disgusting. Look where the Vortex was in 2007 and look where the CFS has it. The 2007 position allowed for confluence and high pressure in ern Canada. The CFS would be Bermuda shorts and cosmos with every approaching low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Thankfully, skilled mets and vets take the cfs with grains of sodium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Just now, OSUmetstud said: I don't remember looking at it too much last winter. I believe it was a blowtorch throughout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Who knows what will ultimately happen.... but I think there is at least equal reason to think this winter sucks vs it being good. Serious question, is anyone really impressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 I hear the CANSIPS was ugly too, But place that in the CFS category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 I've heard both sides. Typical seasonal voodoo. Some say torch December, others typical. Pretty classic responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 2007-2008 was by no means a catastrophe here in ORH. Nice, snowy December. January was above normal, but squeezed out a few snowfalls, February about normal all around 22" snow for the month. Of course, I'd like to see a December like that followed by a remainder of the winter in the same key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I've heard both sides. Typical seasonal voodoo. Some say torch December, others typical. Pretty classic responses. What's your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Who knows what will ultimately happen.... but I think there is at least equal reason to think this winter sucks vs it being good. Serious question, is anyone really impressed? I am. But my thoughts = cfs skill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: What's your thoughts? I am definitely not a seasonal guy, but I was thinking more typical Nina December here since I did not see any significant signs that screamed warmer or very snowy. I figured it would be the typical roller coaster...but I am not feeling a 2007 or 1970 vibe. However, if we can get the atmospheric Nina circulation to weaken (it's not very strong right now anyways) we may also not have the tail off to winter that we in SNE typically see in Feb and Mar. Again, JMHO...not that it means much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I am definitely not a seasonal guy, but I was thinking more typical Nina December here since I did not see any significant signs that screamed warmer or very snowy. I figured it would be the typical roller coaster...but I am not feeling a 2007 or 1970 vibe. However, if we can get the atmospheric Nina circulation to weaken (it's not very strong right now anyways) we may also not have the tail off to winter that we in SNE typically see in Feb and Mar. Again, JMHO...not that it means much We will place you in the hat with the CFS and Cansips.................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: We will place you in the hat with the CFS and Cansips.................lol No LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No LOL. It was based on your long range comment........lol, I don't read to much into seasonal model forecast, Hard enough for models to project conditions on day 10 never mind monthly for an entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 The point to glean from all this is to worry about this being a good winter, and don’t forecast or plan on a snowy year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Depends on the exact location and strength of the ridge, too......Feb 2015 was primarily EPO driven....modest PNA. So remember Pickles freaking out before Jan 15 blizzard because the PNA was flat, get us the cold it will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The point to glean from all this is to worry about this being a good winter, and don’t forecast or plan on a snowy year I see the complete opposite. Temps around normal or just above for DJFM with above avg snow nw of the se coast. If i lose, I’ll pick up all the twigs on your lawn on april 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The point to glean from all this is to worry about this being a good winter, and don’t forecast or plan on a snowy year Nickles and Dimes like you preached in 15...preached that all the way to a Blizzard lol....Maybe you can do the same this year? Keep harping to not plan on a snowy year...maybe the reverse happens again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: It was based on your long range comment........lol, I don't read to much into seasonal model forecast, Hard enough for models to project conditions on day 10 never mind monthly for an entire season. Oh what I meant by tail off, is the slow end to winter that Nina's have. Some think Feb and Mar may be better than what we see...at least down here. I'll keep it simple. Seems like typical Nina until otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Oh what I meant by tail off, is the slow end to winter that Nina's have. Some think Feb and Mar may be better than what we see...at least down here. I'll keep it simple. Seems like typical Nina until otherwise. The good seasons typically go right into April, Still a lot of mixed signals i think right now as to how this one plays out, These seem to get underway early for the most part, With some cold late November and into December and snow on the front end, Have not really looked at much of anything at all as been very busy with fall projects still not completed and now its running into hunting season which i usually have them completed by now, But reading some of you mets here, I don't see anything that has been said that would set of the panic button for this winter season not producing at least normal conditions as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 You'd be hard pressed to find a month with good ridging in the EPO region that ended up a torch in the northern tier of the CONUS. December 1998 might be the closest example but that month got cold in a lot of the northwest....unlike what the CFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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