Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We just had a big hugger last March.

 Oh, I know it just seemed like they were more common then they have been the past few years.   That event was one of the first good March events out here in a while. 

[WxBlue]

12z GFS still have a nice wintry threat for NNE. A close miss for me personally. 

500 mb pattern was, once again, very different from the last run so it's still not consistent enough. Still worth keeping a tab on.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think he means where I rain and cry for mama while the rest of the Pony-Os are dancing around in costumes from Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat. 

 Riding the chairlift at Berkshire East  in +SN with a bong in one hand and cell phone radar loop in the other  looking at all the pretty green and yellow colors on the coast. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That can happen. Gosh, 12/26/10 was a classic one. It was rain close to the SE. The funny thing is that you have a great shot at beating me in early season events. The ocean will kill me unless it's frigid aloft. You guys think I do so well thanks to recent bias, but there is heartache for sure. Trust me. I am due to pay the piper.

I’m close to the ocean too though not as openly exposed as you I guess. I have LI and coastal CT to protect thy invasion of warmth for a smidge longer.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

3/5/01.

12-14-92

12/11/92-12/12/92. Mar 2001 at least ended fun. I won't speak about Dec 92.     

 

Anyways, you all can rejoice when I am porked. Y'all are salivating for that.

[CoastalWx]

Models next week are like an early season Leon. LOL. WxBlue may need Jerry to explain that one.

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[J Paul Gordon]

Here's hoping for an early cover of white....and a long sustained period of snow and cold in December. Nice to have a front ended (or better, both ended) winter for a change.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ryan = “so you’re saaaaying theres a chance.” 

[dryslot]

Best part of all is we get the models back an hour earlier starting this weekend..............

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Best part of all is we get the models back an hour earlier starting this weekend..............

It just makes the 6z runs close enough to stay up for during a big event.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It just makes the 6z runs close enough to stay up for during a big event.

lol, I think i can count on one hand missing 3 fingers the amount of times over the years i have done that, But that said, It makes the 0z Euro worth waiting for.............

[Eduardo]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    let's not get ahead...  "I" (at least) am not really concerned with the winter in this thread or any of the facets leading to a D 8 feature for monitoring. 

But, so long as you're asking... The "durability" (interesting word choice) as it relates to the longer terms variability/tendencies therein, of that particular mass-field index? 

-- The NAO is quite stochastic, showing intra-weekly (at times) variations that bring the index above and below 0 standard deviations, which makes it somewhat problematic for just about any time interval..  particularly the longer that time range is considered. For example, seasonally the NAO index almost cannot be predicated with much skill. There is, however, a very broad perspective that is based upon multi-decade behavior, where given scopes on the order of a centuries, a 20 to 30 year periodicity emerges that suggests that the NAO will be in a negative(positive) phase bias.  Right now we are (based on that alone) supposed to be in a negative phase; but like all longer termed averages...they are a serrated affair of ups and down and noisy separations from neutrality...which is to say, you can (and will) have positive winters during negative graphical arguments and vice versa.  ... 

-- I took you down that course work to use that as a buffer for the EPO, in that the EPO is not nearly as stochastic as the NAO.  There are a lot of reasons why the NAO experiences greater variability, but the main reason why the EPO tends to move slower when in modality is because of the ginormous controlling presence of the Pacific ocean leading it's mass-field in the traditional/base-line circulation rules of the planet.  Namely, the fact that weather moves from west to east at mid latitudes of the northern Hemisphere... such that having a big proxy like the oceanic expanse of the Pacific means that the physical factors causing the EPO to rise tend to be anchored in longer termed/great momentum circumstances in both the atmosphere and atmospheric-oceanic coupled relationship. 

That's a lot of long words ... but, bigger objects take longer to motivate - that's all.. The Pacific basin's influence on the atmosphere is truly vast ...planetary in scope and scale really. And, that is both fluid mechanical, and thermodynamically ... (and the two are 2ndarily also subjective of one-another)... So, the EPO is maintained by much of that, so it stands to reason the EPO is more robust than the NAO.  

But that doesn't mean a 10 day stint of -EPO in late October through early November will parlay into a whole winter, either. Just that in terms of longer 'durability' when you get -EPOs it should hypothetically express in that phase state for a longer period of time. 

5 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think SSTs being a driver is oversold.  There's a correlation.  But there would warmer than normal SSTs with a ridge overhead all winter in the Bering and the Gulf of Alaska anyway.  

 

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Violently agree. It was shown that the ridging in that region from 2013-2014 into later 2015 was likely aided by the continuous tropical forcing in the WPAC. Those cold NPAC waters that are a few degrees above normal simply are not going to force a hemispheric rosby wave pattern change.  People use the warm pool way too much, it's a product of the environment, not the other way around. JMHO. 

 

4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Right.  

Weirdly enough. I was just checking October Ninas compared to this season and the closest match was the cold-neutral October 2013.  And rolling it forward into mid November.  It seemed like a good portion of Nina falls had AK troughing.  

 

 

This is precisely why I love this forum.  Thanks so much all!

[WxBlue]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Models next week are like an early season Leon. LOL. WxBlue may need Jerry to explain that one.

Yeah... I'm lost on this one haha.

Just a FYI, I know it's silly to pinpoint anything that far out. Run-to-run tracking from D8-10 is a waste of energy unless you're looking at teleconnections or larger synoptic patterns. 

[LurkerBoy]

So...things look...good?

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Yeah... I'm lost on this one haha.

Just a FYI, I know it's silly to pinpoint anything that far out. Run-to-run tracking from D8-10 is a waste of energy unless you're looking at teleconnections or larger synoptic patterns. 

  Oh yeah. You will see many of us point that out to weenies. But, sometimes we have fun pointing out model fantasy. You'll find this subforum of meteorologists is pretty well-versed in local climatology, teleconnections, etc.

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  Oh yeah. You will see many of us point that out to weenies. But, sometimes we have fun pointing out model fantasy. You'll find this subforum of meteorologists is pretty well-versed in local climatology, teleconnections, etc.

Won't take him long to catch on to alot of things on this forum, Wait until the first legit threat..............lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Won't take him long to catch on to alot of things on this forum, Wait until the first legit threat..............lol

Deff, it brings out the true colors. 

[WxBlue]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  Oh yeah. You will see many of us point that out to weenies. But, sometimes we have fun pointing out model fantasy. You'll find this subforum of meteorologists is pretty well-versed in local climatology, teleconnections, etc.

Haha yeah sometimes it's funny to watch what models are smoking on. I've been really impressed by the quality of posts in this subforum comparing to the Southeast one (although they have many great posters too). And it's not just meteorologists either. Weather enthusiasts here are pretty clever too. I can tell that I'll learn a lot more about meteorology just by lurking most of the time.

I don't really specialize with teleconnections or local climatology like several of you are (these posts have been incredible). I'm more of a weather forecaster, especially when storms become certain and we're close enough to break down into details. Living in the new region, obviously it'll take me time to catch onto how storms behave around here and learn new things.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deff, it brings out the true colors. 

After a few go off the rails, The shine will wear off.

[WxBlue]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Won't take him long to catch on to alot of things on this forum, Wait until the first legit threat..............lol

 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deff, it brings out the true colors. 

Oh, I can already tell haha. If that sou'easter threat is up to 75+ pages and full of people arguing about whether or not the storm was historic...

I can't imagine what it's like during a blizzard centering on Boston.

[dryslot]

Just now, WxBlue said:

 

Oh, I can already tell haha. If that sou'easter threat is up to 75+ pages and full of people arguing about whether or not the storm was historic...

I can't imagine what it's like during a blizzard centering on Boston.

Oh i think you can imagine just based on that thread...............

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

 

Oh, I can already tell haha. If that sou'easter threat is up to 75+ pages and full of people arguing about whether or not the storm was historic...

I can't imagine what it's like during a blizzard centering on Boston.

Just imagine if the blizz is NOT centered on Boston. Check the phones at every bridge inside 495.

[WxBlue]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Oh i think you can imagine just based on that thread...............

And to think things are crazy enough in the SE subforum... 

 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just imagine if the blizz is NOT centered on Boston. Check the phones at every bridge inside 495.

Taking the term "cliff jumping" to an extreme.

[Go Kart Mozart]

9 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

Is that good or bad! Sorry!

-EPO is good....it cuts off Canada from any Pacific flow, so they get cold.  In time the cold oozes southward.  I think many would agree it is the strongest teleconnector to cold winter weather for a large portion of the US.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

And to think things are crazy enough in the SE subforum... 

 

Taking the term "cliff jumping" to an extreme.

Always led by 40/70. I swear the Kid has 9 lives.

[Zeus]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Always led by 40/70. I swear the Kid has 9 lives.

No; just an indelibly thick skull to buffer against the impact.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Always led by 40/70. I swear the Kid has 9 lives.

Historically.

I was pretty even keeled last year.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Historically.

I was pretty even keeled last year.

“Yes we can”

[CoastalWx]

54 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

-EPO is good....it cuts off Canada from any Pacific flow, so they get cold.  In time the cold oozes southward.  I think many would agree it is the strongest teleconnector to cold winter weather for a large portion of the US.

Or it can cause cutters.