USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Will Scott, anyone with access to the EURO precip type maps, I just want to be clear, the 12z EURO day 9-10 would be snow for even the Cape and Islands correct? I know it probably won't happen, I just want to make sure that upper level pattern suggests a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Excellent...this year, we have a huge anomaly on the Europe side of Siberia. Maybe it will actually be right this year. But I'm def not betting on it. I thought the coverage was good in itself but the October advance rate was lackluster. Judah mentioned that in his blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will Scott, anyone with access to the EURO precip type maps, I just want to be clear, the 12z EURO day 9-10 would be snow for even the Cape and Islands correct? I know it probably won't happen, I just want to make sure that upper level pattern suggests a snowstorm? It has hotdog icons over Harwich MA USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 This morning's euro looks decidedly negative epo-ish within a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: This morning's euro looks decidedly negative epo-ish within a week. Is that good or bad! Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 6z GFS shows a winter storm threat the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: 6z GFS shows a winter storm threat the middle of next week. Sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 However, the 6z GFS is porn to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 A lot of guidance actually has that system...you should obviously be skeptical at 8-9 days out though on any type of winter precip event this time of the year. Regardless, there is pretty unanimous agreement on colder weather next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Will until dawn awakening sees this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sell. 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: However, the 6z GFS is porn to the coast. lol. Too hard not to look and wonder this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 13 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will Scott, anyone with access to the EURO precip type maps, I just want to be clear, the 12z EURO day 9-10 would be snow for even the Cape and Islands correct? I know it probably won't happen, I just want to make sure that upper level pattern suggests a snowstorm? 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will until dawn awakening sees this. dawn has already awoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol. Too hard not to look and wonder this time of year. Probably means that someone in New England has a shot of first flakes. Naturally you favor well inland or NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Puff puff pass Congtats Caribou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Probably means that someone in New England has a shot of first flakes. Naturally you favor well inland or NNE. Harwich, MA also does well with -2C 850s and 542 thicknesses this time of year apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 12 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It has hotdog icons over Harwich MA USA. Nothing like going outside and letting those first falling weenies land on your face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nothing like going outside and letting those first falling weenies land on your face. Thats a really disturbing gif of some sort of heterosexual weenie weather porn. It's probably how a lot of the women on this board feel though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Your supposed to post the images for 's to fap to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Been there for a few cycles actually ... If we want to take a holistic overview, the period Nov 5 through 15 has been flagged for colder departures for a long while actually. So no surprise that entities within that timing take on colder profiles - ...sort of perfunctory expectation really. So Will's right and I'll echo those sentiments...still just recognition stages of the game, probably until the weekend I'm guessing? We'll go through head-scratch losses and or out of no where way over production version of that one in particular. Which ...while on the subject, the difference between the 00z and 06z are text-book for less versus more phasing respectively. The 00z, believe it or not...might actually be the higher probability for seeing snow in the air, given to the flatter nature of the field and the overrunning thermodynamics not overwhelming a fragile nascent early season polar air mass. The 06z looks fantastic from the broad perspective, with a clear CCB band and even a frontogenic look blossoming through the region, but in early mid Novie...at only -1 C at 850 that could be wind whipped cat's paws lower than the elevations - probably not ...push comes to shove, yeah, it's dynamically correcting down, not up with those mechanics... I'm saying that taking the two solutions to their nerdiest extreme of bun-dom analysis ...if you want snow, you might want to root on the flatter look. Another month from now? Sure... a 06z solution for Dec 10 even ends with powder... As others have noted, the Euro and even the oft day-dreamer GGEM model are carrying this event along in their own rite. Those are warmer appeals though, and would rain most likely? But I suspect each model has a mid to late range warm bias in that regard that may as well be ignored at this time range. The Euro has -3 C at 850, then ...clouds over and start precipitating with 0, SFC to 850 warm advection source but somehow pops the 850 to +2? Nah...no chance Euro - nice try. You go with what you know - in this case, we've loaded the pattern with cold off antecedent -EPO ... That Pacific is lined up and has been and is modeled to continue, in such a way that is 'AA' in nature...which supports NW flow through the Canadian shield, and the table is set. I'm interested in the fact that the tenor of the operational models fits pretty squarely into that teleconnector spread - not in conflict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Been there for a few cycles actually ... If we want to take a holistic overview, the period Nov 5 through 15 has been flagged for colder departures for a long while actually. So no surprise that entities within that timing take on colder profiles - ...sort of perfunctory expectation really. So Will's right and I'll echo those sentiments...still just recognition stages of the game, probably until the weekend I'm guessing? We'll go through head-scratch losses and or out of no where way over production version of that one in particular. Which ...while on the subject, the difference between the 00z and 06z are text-book for less versus more phasing respectively. The 00z, believe it or not...might actually be the higher probability for seeing snow in the air, given to the flatter nature of the field and the overrunning thermodynamics not overwhelming a fragile nascent early season polar air mass. The 06z looks fantastic from the broad perspective, with a clear CCB band and even a frontogenic look blossoming through the region, but in early mid Novie...at only -1 C at 850 that could be wind whipped cat's paws lower than the elevations - probably not ...push comes to shove, yeah, it's dynamically correcting down, not up with those mechanics... I'm saying that taking the two solutions to their nerdiest extreme of bun-dom analysis ...if you want snow, you might want to root on the flatter look. Another month from now? Sure... a 06z solution for Dec 10 even ends with powder... As others have noted, the Euro and even the oft day-dreamer GGEM model are carrying this event along in their own rite. Those are warmer appeals though, and would rain most likely? But I suspect each model has a mid to late range warm bias in that regard that may as well be ignored at this time range. The Euro has -3 C at 850, then ...clouds over and start precipitating with 0, SFC to 850 warm advection source but somehow pops the 850 to +2? Nah...no chance Euro - nice try. You go with what you know - in this case, we've loaded the pattern with cold off antecedent -EPO ... That Pacific is lined up and has been and is modeled to continue, in such a way that is 'AA' in nature...which supports NW flow through the Canadian shield, and the table is set. I'm interested in the fact that the tenor of the operational models fits pretty squarely into that teleconnector spread - not in conflict. Frigid EPO-driven winters are my favorite. How durable is that -EPO though? I recall the 2014-15 episode being driven by that magic warm pool in the NPAC, which seems to Ben lacking this year (so far at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Your supposed to post the images for 's to fap to. “What about those outside of EMA” ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 6Z gfs.:) long way to go it will be gone the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: “What about those outside of EMA” ? We don't count.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: “What about those outside of EMA” ? It's "congrats MPM" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 37 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Frigid EPO-driven winters are my favorite. How durable is that -EPO though? I recall the 2014-15 episode being driven by that magic warm pool in the NPAC, which seems to Ben lacking this year (so far at least). I think SSTs being a driver is oversold. There's a correlation. But there would warmer than normal SSTs with a ridge overhead all winter in the Bering and the Gulf of Alaska anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6Z gfs.:) long way to go it will be gone the next run It has been on the models for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Ahh yes... woke up to a nice, cold morning to see a beautiful modeled winter storm over my location on the GFS. Probably one of those once-a-year blockbusters that doesn't pan out. Let me check few things... -checked the date and the location- Toto, we're not in North Carolina on a typical January day anymore. I know it's at least 8 days away, but this is really exciting for me considering models rarely show something over a foot in the South. Unfortunately, 500 mb pattern is still rather fluid run-to-run over last couple days. Likely the big snow will go away for 12z GFS, but at least the cold appears to be consistent so it wouldn't be wise to dismiss wintry threat entirely for this period. It's still fun to look at and get excited for the upcoming winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 31 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: We don't count.... I’m just busting his chops cuz he called me a bad name the other day when I responded to King James asking “what about Cape Cod MA” as he always does. Apparently, name calling from a Mod is acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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