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Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

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Yes, well wishes for TheFella. 

And I Agree, small steps down is fine for now. Still have a month to wiggle the pattern around and get it tipping more favorable for Dec. From the looks of it, we are looking decent with troughing just to our west with a good pacific. Its fine. Blowing our load in Nov won’t do much anyway. 

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9 hours ago, weathafella said:

Step down.  I’m going under the knife Thursday so I’ll probably be somewhat oblivious until the weekend at the earliest.

 

seasonal feels cold now.

Good thoughts for a quick recovery.  I've never had surgery--but in case you have dreams while you're under, I hope you're able to relive '78!!

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A lot of reloading of the EPO/WPO ridging throughout the EPS run...that's a good look. It does look like more cold is going to try and bleed eastward later next week and beyond...but the general theme will still be -PNA troughing over the PAC NW, so it will be easy to see roller coaster rides in the temps...especially since any form of NAO blocking remains absent.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of reloading of the EPO/WPO ridging throughout the EPS run...that's a good look. It does look like more cold is going to try and bleed eastward later next week and beyond...but the general theme will still be -PNA troughing over the PAC NW, so it will be easy to see roller coaster rides in the temps...especially since any form of NAO blocking remains absent.

Better a roller coaster than consistent warmth at this time of year.

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4 hours ago, rimetree said:

I like the look of the euro in the long range.

I'm not entirely opposed to 'some' sort of colder profiled thinking in there... 

Thing is (and this may or may not swoop over the head...) the Pacific has entered a stable correlation between the PNA and EPO domain spaces, which is anchored perhaps a bit more in that the West Pacific Oscillation (atmospheric in nature) is in the negative phase and is modeled in the ensemble derivatives to remain that way.  That WPO ...and, the MJO (which is the transient wave guide) for that matter, are in tandem sending positive (constructive) wave dynamics into this circulation..    

What all that means is lay terms is that the atmosphere in the northern Hemisphere appears to have wended its way into a scenario that favors ridging in the Alaskan sector... Which I think it was Will or Scott outlined, that's a little risky early on in the season because with wave spacing seasonally still a bit dicey, the Pac NW sometimes 'tucks' ...and well, we are seeing some of that in the guidance.  I am not sure I bite on that with full canines, though. I man the Euro's been trying to do outside sliders along the West Coast which seems a tad excessive.  

Either way, the operational version tenor of the various model camps are to bring pretty blue lines with over the top high pressure domes to southern/SE Canada.  Prelude to ice?  

I think people also need to keep in mind that we haven't been face smacked yet by a slate gray sky at 39. That's really when it gets "easier" to start associating the weather charts to a visual-physical impression of what it may mean.  I see thickness of 546 dm, with a 1030+ mb early season polar high sliding through eastern Ontario, with tendencies for overrunning overcast, ...heh, whoops! that's a whole new season compared to what we've been experiencing. Heat is on in all homes. Jackets... Gloves for some... and DP less than freezing just aching for snow grains to break out with that wood smoke smell from down the street.  That's really what a lot of that look in the D8 range has.  The 12z GFS has a flat wave (also) in the lower OV where the Euro used it to develop a nor'easter on the previous cycle... So, seeing as the tele's having been hitting a cooler first 10 days of November (and we did discuss this last week...) I wouldn't be shocked if something more frozen and/or freezing emerged.     

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most of us nailed the '07-'08 winter. We were comparing it to 1970-'71 with the swfe and gradient.

Get well!

November 1970 is plastered all over the analogs for later next week's pattern. Hopefully a good omen.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven't checked the Voodoo Advancement Index lately.How's the Siberian snow doing?

Excellent...this year, we have a huge anomaly on the Europe side of Siberia. Maybe it will actually be right this year. But I'm def not betting on it.

 

 

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