Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Fall 2017 Model Mehham


Go Kart Mozart

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies looked decent. Some ridging west with Aleutian trough. Nothing ice cold verbatim but sort of a temporary Nino look. Week 3 and 4 are very unstable though so take with grain of salt. 

Lots of up and down. No one pattern really prevailing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

And that's what I mean..in terms of our weather.  Just like back in the early part of the decade of the 2000's...wasn't it Al Gore and his followers saying that by after 2008 or something like that...snow/big snow events would be hard to come by in the Mid Atlantic and New England?   And then we all know what happened after he said that lol. 

nobody ever said that, at least seriously, if they knew anything.  I seriously doubt Al Gore said that, as he is an intelligent person...maybe you could provide a source?  the climate is changing and it is probably affecting our weather though.  i think there is more ocean heat content and perhaps that is why Irma was a Cat 5 for such a long period.  but this might help our weather in terms of snow....more moisture available?  more baroclinity?  I don't know, 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

nobody ever said that, at least seriously, if they knew anything.  I seriously doubt Al Gore said that, as he is an intelligent person...maybe you could provide a source?  the climate is changing and it is probably affecting our weather though.  i think there is more ocean heat content and perhaps that is why Irma was a Cat 5 for such a long period.  but this might help our weather in terms of snow....more moisture available?  more baroclinity?  I don't know, 

I don't buy the snow argument. I think it is mostly a change in measurement methods. I think you could make the argument that we used to have stronger winter storms in the past from stronger baroclinicity since the cP airmasses used to be colder. Some of those old sfc maps from historical systems are insane. 1050mb highs over the northern plains with miller A's coming up the coast.

I do buy the possible slower onset of fall and winter avg temp wise. Refreezing all of that lost permafrost and sea ice puts puts quite a bit of heat into the atmosphere and could create a slight lag in the severity of the cold airmasses in those respective regions. Once Canada ices up I don't think it makes much of a difference anymore...all source regions will be iced back over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

nobody ever said that, at least seriously, if they knew anything.  I seriously doubt Al Gore said that, as he is an intelligent person...maybe you could provide a source?  the climate is changing and it is probably affecting our weather though.  i think there is more ocean heat content and perhaps that is why Irma was a Cat 5 for such a long period.  but this might help our weather in terms of snow....more moisture available?  more baroclinity?  I don't know, 

Mahk, I don't think global warming is leading to a big surge in oceanic temperatures, honestly it could balance out the heat flux of tropical cyclones.  ENSO conditions have a lot to do with the natural progression of our climate over the US, we know that much.  The North Atlantic heat flux machines has a lot to do with our patterns across the US as it allows either blocking or a progressive regime to take place during the whole year.  Global warming could be quantified by the global temperatures sure in the air, but honestly, I don't think the oceans have felt that heat flux yet, I think by and large, the ocean heats slower and cools slower than the atmosphere, so it makes sense that the delayed reactions the ocean is feeling is not due to global warming, but is just the natural process of life on earth.  you will not be surprised the day the ocean feels the global warming signals.  That is my humbled and amateur opinion, I would allow the experts to weigh in though, I will be fond of their output on the subject matter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I don't buy the snow argument. I think it is mostly a change in measurement methods. I think you could make the argument that we used to have stronger winter storms in the past from stronger baroclinicity since the cP airmasses used to be colder. Some of those old sfc maps from historical systems are insane. 1050mb highs over the northern plains with miller A's coming up the coast.

I do buy the possible slower onset of fall and winter avg temp wise. Refreezing all of that lost permafrost and sea ice puts puts quite a bit of heat into the atmosphere and could create a slight lag in the severity of the cold airmasses in those respective regions. Once Canada ices up I don't think it makes much of a difference anymore...all source regions will be iced back over.

That makes sense.  I mean ocean heat content has increased.  Wouldn't that increase available moisture though?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def a cooler pattern but not actually cold I don't think on the EPS out past D8 through the end of the run. Cold shot initially but then more normal-ish temps in the 11-15.

Pretty solid agreement in the day 8-10 mean between the EURO/GFS/GGEM...that's a nice looking trough for some seasonable chill.

The trick, as you said, is after the cold shot...is it just in and out and then re-torch or can we "mild-up" back to normal without having it going back to +10 departures.

fwoWWks.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Pretty solid agreement in the day 8-10 mean between the EURO/GFS/GGEM...that's a nice looking trough for some seasonable chill.

The trick, as you said, is after the cold shot...is it just in and out and then re-torch or can we "mild-up" back to normal without having it going back to +10 departures.

fwoWWks.gif

"Seasonally chilly" ?  My, depends what people think is normal...

That trough is way deeper than normal - seasonal chilly is the inverse of having one's expectations a little high, I think. But that's me...

Annnywho, it seems the Pacific is trying to change - it's got enough legs in terms of persistence to wonder if it's not lies.  Thing is, no sooner, the 18z operational Good For Schit model immediately reloads the eastern ridge like you were mentioning.  This time of year, tele's can flip out as commonly as operational versions - gotta remember that.  

Gotta get Halloween out of the way...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I do not see an abrupt change to siggy cold at all. Maybe seasonal as its averaged out. Could be some pretty good swings in temps during the tail end of the month. Maybe even some tropical moisture entrained into the mix along the east coast.

There's some Sandy hints in some of those ensembles ...heh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"Seasonally chilly" ?  My, depends what people think is normal...

That trough is way deeper than normal - seasonal chilly is the inverse of having one's expectations a little high, I think. But that's me...

Annnywho, it seems the Pacific is trying to change - it's got enough legs in terms of persistence to wonder if it's not lies.  Thing is, no sooner, the 18z operational Good For Schit model immediately reloads the eastern ridge like you were mentioning.  This time of year, tele's can flip out as commonly as operational versions - gotta remember that.  

Gotta get Halloween out of the way...

Maybe a bit of understatement on the trough expectations or possible differences of opinion.  I'm thinking the "seasonably chilly" nomenclature is for below-normal temperatures for a brief period, but within normal seasonal variations.  Maybe it ends up more in the "unseasonably chilly" which I would say is more like -5 to -10 type deal on the daily departures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

For the upcoming trough, it looks more seasonal as many have mentioned. Much larger BN temps more in the midwest and southeast. Nice to finally break this torch pattern that we've had for the past month +

November looks to start out on the milder side I think. Bit of a Bering Sea trough with lower heights extending off the west coast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be pretty surprised if we did not have a couple cold shots during the week of Halloween...they've been on guidance and ensembles for a while.

The Halloween Grinch says, "Good. It'll freeze the peckers off the little monsters in the streets and drive them back to their dens where they can eat all the candy Mom bought for the other (often older) grimaces wandering through the Sabhain chill. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe a bit of understatement on the trough expectations or possible differences of opinion.  I'm thinking the "seasonably chilly" nomenclature is for below-normal temperatures for a brief period, but within normal seasonal variations.  Maybe it ends up more in the "unseasonably chilly" which I would say is more like -5 to -10 type deal on the daily departures.

I typically phrase things seasonably (warmer/colder) when departures are around 5 degrees. When things push +/- 10 then I move into unseasonable. If you move into the 20 degree range you have terms like near-record, extreme, record, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I typically phrase things seasonably (warmer/colder) when departures are around 5 degrees. When things push +/- 10 then I move into unseasonable. If you move into the 20 degree range you have terms like near-record, extreme, record, etc.

What are std devs running this time of year? I've always considered +/- 1.5-2SD to be that unseasonable cutoff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I typically phrase things seasonably (warmer/colder) when departures are around 5 degrees. When things push +/- 10 then I move into unseasonable. If you move into the 20 degree range you have terms like near-record, extreme, record, etc.

Yeah I agree fully with that breakdown.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...