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Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Temps went up a bit with freezing fog. KXDR is 32F while local WU station at 30F.

Some tricky black ice spots will sufface on the commute in. 

Temperature was freefalling last evening, I think it was 29 degrees by 11, but got rolled in shortly after. I think we got down to 26 first thing this morning.

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

-3F Maple Hollow

lol....I did watch the temp drop 2-3° going down the hill and in and out of some of the hollows this morning so I think they had their first teens of the seasons.

It was also interesting in that there was fog along the CT River in parts but not others.  I didn't notice any fog in the river valley's by me but only going into Enfield.  I also noted going in that it was below 32° on the 1K ft hill I go over so quite the range of temps this morning.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

60+ winds? Kuchera weenie wind maps FTL. Mixing doesn't go to 850 on the soundings. 

wasn't a wind map and it was gusts to 60 in interior Maine, Box has a Wind Advisory out for the Berks, guess they are using wind maps too

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph

Car

The National Weather Service in Caribou has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 5 AM to 8 PM EST Friday.

* WINDS...West to northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong gusty winds will blow around unsecured
  objects. Tree limbs could be snapped and trees toppled resulting
  in power outages.
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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

wasn't a wind map and it was gusts to 60 in interior Maine, Box has a Wind Advisory out for the Berks, guess they are using wind maps too


A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph

Car


The National Weather Service in Caribou has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 5 AM to 8 PM EST Friday.

* WINDS...West to northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong gusty winds will blow around unsecured
  objects. Tree limbs could be snapped and trees toppled resulting
  in power outages.

Is 50 the new 60?

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Is 50 the new 60?

you are going to bust my balls over 5-10 miles an hour and act like I am some kid reading wind gusts maps?. The original intent of the post was to ask why GYX had no advisory when EPS had a strong signal of a very strong isobaric couplet with wind gusts up to 60 MPH in interior elevated Maine ,and as far as your mixing comment, seems NWS begs to differ

The tight pressure gradient and
deep mixing will support strong gusty west to northwest winds
across the region Friday. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph, with
gusts up to 50 mph, are expected.
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13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Low about 15 at my place, right where I expected given the P&C forecast of 21.  Ice on the 20-gal tub 1/2" this morning.  Will dump tomorrow; the bottom's bulged out already from my tardiness in a past autumn.

Time to bring in the hose reel for me.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

you are going to bust my balls over 5-10 miles an hour and act like I am some kid reading wind gusts maps?. The original intent of the post was to ask why GYX had no advisory when EPS had a strong signal of a very strong isobaric couplet with wind gusts up to 60 MPH in interior elevated Maine ,and as far as your mixing comment, seems NWS begs to differ


The tight pressure gradient and
deep mixing will support strong gusty west to northwest winds
across the region Friday. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph, with
gusts up to 50 mph, are expected.

You referenced the euro weenie wind maps. Nothing supports 60. 50 yes, but there is a pretty big difference from 50 to 60. And I don't think mixing below 850mb is deep mixing. Oh Wizard of Wicked Winds.

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Looking at the upcoming cold shot... I keep seeing this signal where the 850mb cold struggles past the mountains.

Is this really just NW flow downslope onto the coastal plain and east side that causes such a huge difference in 850mb temperatures?

The EURO has the biggest differences...most of this cold shot its 10C colder NW of the Whites and in VT than it is east of the mountains.  That's not a small difference but didn't know the air would warm that much on the compressional side of the mountains into the coastal plain.

cold.jpg.33ada035cd6a90244bd040a5fc0f9b3b.jpg

 

GFS is less but the coastal plain warms a lot faster than the mountains of VT/NH.

cold2.jpg.7a70998b716b492d34519ddac31ec37f.jpg

 

I guess I've just never seen it so pronounced before at the 850mb level.  Maybe at 950mb or something but usually that high up the temperatures don't seem to have 5-10C differences between upslope side and downslope side on NW flow.

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You will need to go outside in shorts and tee's to build up your tolerance for whats to come.....................:lol:

Haha I've been going to the gym in t-shirt and shorts!

So far, my tolerance has caught up to 30s and it's no longer feeling cold to me.

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If you look at 925 mb, it's much less pronounced. I noticed that too, PF. The real cold is actually shallow and mixing is not that great. If this were a true downslope dandy, we'd mix past 850 and temps well into the 40s. 

Fascinating.

This is the 925mb temps at the same time as the EURO 850 temps I posted above.

So what is causing those H85 temps to be so weird looking?  Is that upslope/downslope related at the 850mb level but with cold low levels no surface mixing?

Edit... Yes answered my own question with the sounding and you can see the downslope warming even at 700mb downwind of the mountains.  Just doesn't get mixed all the way to the surface.

925.jpg.5c2895aca7d790a0444cb687f907d736.jpg

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22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He has to add to his post count somehow

Where did this come from? The ensemble viewer of gusts? That might as well be from a weenie map product. I doubt it's taking into account mixing potential like BUFKIT.

 

 "Euro ENS bullish on gusts to 60 interior zones,.."

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